"The Big Picture" by Ray Dalio

Article linked here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio

All credit for ideas and content go to Ray Dalio and his team.

I'm posting this here because I believe Ray is correct about the select following points included in the article (among others):

Point 1: The short-term looks OK, the long term doesn't

"Big picture, the near term looks good and the longer term looks scary. That is because:

1. The economy is now at or near its best, and we see no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two,
2. There are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt obligations, limited abilities by central banks to stimulate, etc.) that are likely to create a squeeze,
3. Social and political conflicts are near their worst for the last number of decades, and
4. Conflicts get worse when economies worsen.

So while we have no near-term economic worries for the economy as a whole, we worry about what these conflicts will become like when the economy has its next downturn."

Point 2: The unfunded liabilities will come home to roost, with a vengeance

Debt and non-debt obligations (e.g., for pensions, healthcare entitlements, social security, etc.) are high.

Read the article linked for more information and feel free to comment.