Bitcoin shows extreme strength, lets look at big picture
Bitcoin has been showing real strength and has left us with a gap in the chart. So I think its timely for me to make a video about the big picture and what is more likely to happen in the future. We will discuss how price discovery works, and how to identify extreme strength on a chart. I realize this video is over 20mins, but I'm making a effort to take a little more time to fully explain the important concepts, whenever I put out a video.
Luc
If you have any trouble viewing this video here is the YouTube link:
Thank u so much for this video. It did aid in clarifying things to me -- well, I was especially curious on how one can extreme strength on a chart !
Did NOT mind that it was 20 min, btw ☻☻
Too bad you were "MIA" w/ your brother, and subsequently missed out on an Opportunity. Thanks for explaining about 'Taking #Profits'; guess this is an important thing with #Bitcoin. (For you readers, Luc discusses this at the 7 Minute mark).
He explains (and uses the term 'Base crack' throughout, btw ). Just because he was waiting & hoping for a good crackdown in the price, so he could sneak in there & make a #trade.
QUITE Illuminating..
Hope u have a WONDERFUL DAY !
Thanks, yeah, you will always miss opportunities in trading, I didn't even catch that bitcoincash trade. I missed it by a few cents.. But as long as you trade safe and wait for the right trades to come to you, you will make a killing. And with cryptos, it doesnt take long to turn a small account into a fortune.. Hopefully, a few of my followers get to experience huge account growth because they understand the big picture.
Thank you, Luc. You are part of my life now. Love you like a big brother, man!
@quickfingersluc, thanks again for the great video. I'd love to see Bitcoin go back to $3k and fill that gap.
I have a question for you about position trading. I often see that when a coin breaks it's base, it will drop twice and then return to the base twice.
For instance, take this chart of Bitcoin this past weekend. I know you had it lower, but if you were to call 4500 a base, it dropped to ~4000 twice before returning to 4500 twice.
Do you only buy the first drop?
https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/59b1ff5a2acde/
I ask because I bought in pretty big for ETH this weekend seeing 335 as a base (i know you had it at 275). I had my sell orders slightly above 333 and went out for the day. I came back later and things had already dropped back down to around 300.
I didn't know if they'd head down to the 275 base, so i dumped it all for a very small profit. Then it rose back up to 335 and beyond.
Should I trust that i'll only return to a base once? Is the second attempt considered gambling?
Thanks!
Yeah, I only trust the first bounce. After it has retested the base then who knows where it will go.. The idea is that there was a panic because it broke a base that everyone trusted, so they panic sold their position.. Then after the panic, the price will try to move up and return back above that previous base where it belongs, but if it is not able to get back above the base, then a new lower price is now been validated.. Everyone will now start putting there stop losses below the new low, and others will buy at that low thinking its good support... and the whloe thing plays out over again..
Thanks Luc!
Thanks for another Video! I was hoping you would be back with a new one and seemed to be checking every day. This one is another valuable slab of knowledge to add to the arsenal. To apply my learning I went and looked at some other charts, particularly OMG, because I have been watching it take off. In the chart below, is this another example of a gap that needs to be filled? If so we should anticipate the price to drop back to around $3.00 - $5.00?
While it would be awesome, for that gap to be filled in a timely manner, it often doesnt happen for a longer than you may expect .. The fact that it is gaping up is eveidence that the buyers way way outnumber the sellers, and that means its showing extreme strength. And then you have to consider the history of OMG, does it fill its gaps? Well, there really is no history so far, so maybe that gap will not get filled.. It's hard to predict, but yes most of the time gaps get filled, and in bitcoins case, it has a good history of filling gaps.. But OMG is very new and who knows...
Thank you and I appreciate the response. That makes a lot of sense!
Hey @quickfingersluc, I love the strategy, however waiting for the base to break on 60 minute charts can take forever! I see a lot of opportunity at lower timeframes but the "Big Base" at 60min may not crack while others higher up do. I would love to hear what your opinions are on lowering timeframe. It is still safe? How far back should we look for bases on lower timeframes? Thanks ahead of time ;) for your input!
Dont try low time frames on kraken because sometimes it takes me 15 minutes to have success at placing an order. . Works for me on bittrex though.
One problem I have on small timeframes is often I find that it wont fill larger orders.
Hey coinhead, thanks for the reply. I was also wondering if I was doing this right. On BTC right now on GDAX there was a break in support/the base along with a few little bounces along the slope. Are we supposed to wait for a big rally back to 4100 (old base) or take these smaller bounces as selling points? Thanks! :)
That depends on how involved you want to be. How much time do you have to be sitting at your computer. If you know its going up to 4100 and you try trading little bounces it can easily get away from you and run up with out you. Especially if you get lost in the little bounces like luck did on his last video. Looks like it came within $50 of your $4,100 I wonder if that base is satisfied. It was a pretty week base I think.
Hey Luc, I've been trading for a few months using your method and I have a few questions. If u were just starting again with little money, would you just stick to position trading & daytrading with scanner? I've grinded myself up to 0.9btc from 0.3btc in 2 months or so thanks to your method. The trades on account builders seem kinda crappy so I don't really want to keep doing it forever. I'm on the lookout for fat fingers(which are hard to get) & position trades, and I do some daytrades with bases for less profit. Can't really trade other moves in the market without a good startegy, so it's just a gamble for me. Also I feel like splitting my account in maybe 3 parts per trade is still better, cause for me a nibble will be few dollars profit, wonder if you think the same.
And if a bounce doesn't return to the base right away, but stops 5-10% short of it, then is it better to wait(if it was returned 9/10 times) or just exit anyway? I think u mentioned that u sell instantly if there's a bounce and layer your sells if it doesn't. Feels wrong but unless I make that money faster elsewhere then waiting seems to be the correct choice.
Anyway, thanks for your hard work and explaining your method.
Some of my trades:
Hi Luc,
My first post here and I want to say thank you for sharing your talent. I also Just finished watching all your videos and am extremely excited about applying your approach to trading.
Im having difficulty identifying "low volume coins" . One of your previous comments you stated,
"Low Volume coins should have a small market cap, a lot of buyers, people who are interested and the economy is really small.
Get used to identifying low volume coins by seeing the way it's trading on the chart.. and you can do the math if you are really unsure, You should be able to just tell by looking at the chart or reading the time and sales info".
What does that look like on a chart? I can see the economy and available supply but I just have not idea of what to look for on the chart?
Another great video. Following your strategies (albeit with far less experience and discipline) I jumped in heavy this weekend. Seemed like a good entry point on pretty much everything.
I came out about .18BTC ahead for the weekend playing very small practice positions. I see the power.
My main question is about how you, like, mentally internalize the nexus of positions that opportunities might drive you into. Before I knew it, I was in BTC/USDT; ETH/BTC; NEO/USTD,ETH,BTC; XRP/BTC..... and I'm thinking "I've got all these variable-value assets locked into positions and some pairs are just guaranteed to swing so much wider, why am I allocating BTC to what may be a lesser opportunity? But who knows how it'll play out?"
Not to ramble; I'm sure your trading world is far less chaotic. But, in general, how many active charts/positions are you monitoring at a given time and how do you decide where to focus?
Also, do you see ETH/BTC gaining ground any time soon? I've got a big position waiting to exit there and I haven't taken my profit yet. Feeling greedy...
PS - Lucky exit of the week. #NeosNotDeadButISoldAnyway
May or may not be luck, but good catch!
Just started watching your videos and following your blog here, thanks for this, it's extremely helpful. How much do you recommend a person start with at a minimum to dip their toes into trading crypto like this? Is it even possible to work with $100?
fees are only a percentage so they are not the problem like they would be in regular stock trading. $100 is a nice number to learn with. each dollar you make represents 1% how easy is that? You may not make much for your time but thats ok when your learning. After you get the hang of it you will feel yourself wanting to invest more.
For sure, I decided to go ahead with $100 to start after I posted this and am already up over 10% so I'm learning quickly. Small gains in terms of the dollar amount but i'm more interested in how I do on the percentage gains.
This one is maybe one of the most important videos of all your series. Thank you for sharing. This is so important in order to for see when it is best to take profits and when to rebuy big-big times! Love it!
I'd love to join your slack Luc! Great BTC analysis. Thank you.
Me too! please invite if you can and thanks again.