Hey girls and guys,
this article reflects my thoughts about the whole investing issue (discussed on steem in great length) concerning the games of drugwars and steemmonsters.
There is no investment possibility with drugwars or steemmonsters .. get over it! ;-)
To get down to the essence of this all one should start with Warren Buffet.
Asked what he thinks about crypto investments he said: It makes no sense as you are not investing into a productive asset
So while I certainly do not agree with his negative tone towards cryptos in general, I am convinced that you should bear this in mind.. its all about investing into productive assets.. where else should any return come from?
Anything else is just the speculation that someone else buys your acquired possessions at a higher price some time later...
So what could be defined as productive asset in the case of drugwars and steemmonsters?
Nothing? So that`s it?
Not so quick..
Actually the computer gaming industry is a very big industry and is a about to surpass the overall movie industry soon.
So lets see drugwars and steemmonsters as single investment projects.
What are the resources required to get the project going?
1.) Technical resources like computers, servers (AWS, etc), software, operational expenditures like power and office rent etc...
2.) Wages and social security for employees, management and founders
In this kind of start-up environment often the wages are paid at an absolut minimum level only so that folks can survive and the upside is paid later by company shares, royalties, etc.
So looking at how the pre-alpha and following stages of drugwars and steemmonsters worked IMHO it kind of resembles crowdfinance.
Early adopters get in and "invest" into the early stages of the game. If this game lifts off they get payed back (steemmonsters reward cards and packs, drugwars directly steem).
So it is actually an investment?
Again not so quick!
There are certain properties something should have to be considered an investment:
1.) You do not have to spend your own labor to get a return of your investment - as it should be mainly passive income
2.) You have to be able to invest a decent size (scale-ability) so that your transaction costs of doing the investment diminishes with the size of your investment.
So the first is easy to see: You have to play the game or you will not make your investment back (yes, playing equals labor here - at least for those not running bots.. ;-) ), the second is a bit more complex: while you could spent an endless amount of steem in the games there is certainly a top limit how much steem you can invest before diminishing returns penalize you - this is especially true for drugwars where the optimum amount seems to be in the area of 60 to 100 steem but is also true for steemmonsters where the winning "probability-increase" in buying cards diminishes once you have several full and upgraded decks.
So it does not seem to make much sense to "invest" more than 1000 bucks in either game.
And this is exactly why neither is an investment opportunity - at least not for developed country working class people.
Could be a total different story with high school pupils or people living in the so called "third world countries" - if they have access to a decent computer and internet connection.
.. or you have a posh office in silicon valley and the VC fund you manage invests directly in drugwars inc oder steemmonsters inc.. ;-)
On the other hand:
Come in early, "invest" some steem, earn them back and play in the high ranks for free, or even make a surplus.. I would say there is nothing wrong with this... tell this someone spending hundreds of bucks on stupid fb games...
And if the games really go mainstream or the games pivot to other quality and gameplay levels there still could be the possibility that payouts increase to levels ways above where we are atm.
But you should definitely come for the joy of the game - not for the money!
And to be honest.. IRRs have to be calculated on an annual basis... try this with your drugwars daily payouts or the value of steemmonster reward cards and tell me where you can find those kind of returns.. so atm I believe even for newcomers if they only spend lets say 10, 15 or 20 steem that they will earn them back pretty quickly...
so no investment at all? finally?
.. just not there yet..
If games on the blockchain and especially those on the steem blockchain really become mainstream.. be it steemmonsters or drugwars or one of the next hundred games to come on the steem token.. than I am pretty sure the steem price will also lift off.. actually steem in my eyes looks like the perfect platform for gaming!! The technology (scalability and quick block times) as well as this fantastic steemian community is worth ways more than the current 100 mio. mcap... just imagine the amount of advert dollars steemmonsters or drugwars would have had to spend without the steem community...
.. so that might be where you find your "investment" opportunity..
..does it make the Buffet test - is investment into steem an investment into an productive asset?
Warren again probably would say no... but I want to appeal this..
if facebook is a decent investment so is steem..
part of the the money you spend on steem will end up with steemit inc., - and I know how many feel about my next words - but they built the core of all of this.. so its good that they had the money and the outlook of a decent cut for their work.. and also witnesses, whales, orcas, dolphins and even minnows will profit from the buy in of new users leading to increasing steem prices..
.. leading to more dapps built, more and better content, more interaction... you see where this is going..
so actually those successful games could be the key to success for steem.. at least In My Humble Opinion.
Please do not consider this as investment advise, the author owns steem and therefor the above mentioned might be biased and not objective. Crypto investments are definitely very high risk and volatile investments - please invest only what you can afford to loose entirely.