The Zogby Poll®--NY-22 Congressional Race

The Zogby Poll®

       Anthony Brindisi holds a double-digit lead over Claudia Tenney for the NY 22nd Congressional seat
                         
         The race could signal Democrats winning back the House of Representatives
                         
               Millennials, Women, and Independents supporting Brindisi over Tenney

UTICA, N.Y., April 28, 2018 -- Zogby Analytics conducted a random live operator telephone and online survey of 358 likely voters in the 22nd NY congressional district from 4/23/18 -4/27/18, with a margin of error of +/-5.2 percentage points. The poll pitted Democratic nominee Anthony Brindisi against incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney for the battle ground congressional district NY 22. In the initial horse race tested between the two candidates the former assemblyman leads Congresswoman Claudia Tenney—47% to 40%, with 13% of voters undecided. When we asked the undecided voters to choose between the two candidates, and combine that number with the original figure, these voters lean toward Brindisi. His lead then increases to double digits—in the full horse race scenario Brindisi leads 55% to 45%.

NY 22nd General Election Candidates %
Anthony Brindisi 47
Claudia Tenney 40
Not sure 13

NY 22nd General Election Candidates %
Anthony Brindisi 55
Claudia Tenney 45

Amongst the demographic sub-groups in the full horse race, Brindisi’s points of strength are in Oneida and Broome counties, where he leads 56% to 44% and 59% to 42%, respectively. He also leads among women (59%--41%), Independents (57%--43%), Millennials aged 18-34 (68%-33%) and older voters aged 60+ (53%--47%). The race does tighten up among voters aged 35-49 (Brindisi leads 51%-49%), those without a college degree (Brindisi leads 53%-48%) and voters living in rural areas (Tenney leads 51%--49%). The intensity among each candidates’ base is also a factor at this moment. Brindisi leads among Democrats—90% to 10%, while Tenney leads among Republicans 71% to 29%.
When we drill down into the numbers, a third of voters are favorable (“very” and “somewhat favorable” combined) and 20% are unfavorable of Anthony Brindisi. Brindisi is mostly unknown throughout the district, as 46% are not familiar enough to make a judgment; the exception to Oneida County where his favorable rating is 59% and 34% are unfavorable of him. A majority (52%) of NY 22nd congressional district voters are unfavorable of Congresswomen Tenney (“very” and “somewhat unfavorable” combined), while 41% of voters are favorable of her. The intensity of Tenney’s unfavorable rating is also very high—37% of voters find her “very unfavorable”. Tenney’s favorable rating was higher in suburban areas—51% favorable/46% unfavorable compared to rural and urban sections of the district. The numbers did not change much from the overall figures when it came to other demographics tested--a majority of voters in sub-groups for income, education and race were unfavorable of the congresswoman.

We also polled voters on a number of other issues that are relevant to the NY 22nd congressional district. When voters were asked what the two most important issues in the congressional district were, almost half (48%) said “good paying jobs”, while nearly a third said “poverty” (29%), followed by “public education” (28%) and “investment in infrastructure” and the “condition of streets and roads” (23%).

Regarding another issue important to the Utica metropolitan area, we specifically asked voters who live in Oneida, Herkimer and Madison counties their opinion on the downtown hospital slated to be built. We posed the question to voters, “The Mohawk Valley Health System recently announced plans for a new hospital in downtown Utica. As currently proposed the hospital would be a 670,000 square foot facility with space for 373 beds. Do you support or oppose a new hospital being built in downtown Utica?” Voters were split on the issue—47% “strongly” and “somewhat” opposed the idea while 44% “strongly” and “somewhat” supported the idea, with 9% undecided. A third (32%) of voters “strongly opposed” the hospital being built in downtown Utica and 20% strongly supported the hospital being built downtown.
When it came to state politics, voters were also split in their opinion of Governor Andrew Cuomo. 48% were favorable (“strongly” and “somewhat” combined), while an almost equal amount had an unfavorable rating of the Governor, with 5% undecided. Regarding his performance as governor, almost two-thirds (64%) gave a negative rating (“fair” and “poor” combined), while only 37% thought he was doing a good job (“excellent” and “good” combined).

NY 22nd voters were also vociferous in their belief that things were not going so well in the Empire State. A majority (52%) of voters said things were “off on the wrong track”, while a third felt things were “headed in the right direction”; 14% were not sure how they felt things were going.

When it came to national politics, interestingly more voters (50%) were favorable (“very” and “somewhat favorable” combined) of President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden (56%) than Governor Cuomo (48%).

Survey Takeaways

• Anthony Brindisi maintains a respectable lead over Claudia Tenney, and undecided voters lean toward the former assemblyman.
• Brindisi has his base (younger voters, women, and Independents) fired up, which will play a significant role in this congressional election.
• The race is not over, and Tenney can make it close—if she finds a way to chip into Brindisi’s lead among women, Independents, older voters, voters living in cities, and appeal more to voters outside of the republican base.
• NY 22nd voters believe good paying jobs and poverty are the biggest issues facing the district.
• NY 22nd voters are not crazy about Governor Cuomo, and most think things are off on the wrong track.