RE: [GnomoNews] ICOs falling, Bitcoin to the Moon, Twitterpocalypse
Sorry, I had to laugh at the bitcoin chart, you know how I feel about such things :-)
I hope it does rally, I really do. I bet there are an awful lot of people in pain at the moment, especially those ones who got in on bad advice and now feel a little stupid and abandoned...
I'm a little bit dubious about the 70% decline thing followed by growth... seems a little like humans curve fitting what they want to see... If you told me it was on a Forex pair, and had been doing it every 3 months for the last 7 years I would be more inclined to believe it..
I think that's one of the reasons I won't touch crypto, no history. It doesn't behave like anything else, except maybe penny stocks, and there's just no statistical analysis to be done on it, not enough data over time. And as much as people like to think so, using Forex TA on crypto just doesn't work the same.
I think people are going to have to design some new indicators that are tuned just for crypto, probably momentum based ones would work best.
I know where you are coming from, and i think that as usual, humans always see patterns everywhere, even when they don't exist.
I am not saying that the graph is 100% accurate, but this guy, Tom Lee, show a bit more knowledge about crypto markets than most.
Altough i think BTC still have a lot of space to rise due to it's fundamentals (battle-tested, relative low market cap, good team working on the tech, very secure protocol, scarcity, etc. etc), the analysis is probably a bit far-fetched.
But on the other hand, BTC prices are mapped since 2012-2013 (5 years), wich i think is a pretty good time-frame, and maybe enough for some patterns start to be formed.
But the other criptos? Most of them started to apppear around 2015-2016, so not much history around...
I think BTC is the only crypto that make some sense to try to apply some classic TA tools. 50,100,200 EMA/SMA looks like a pretty good support indicators so far. If you check the latest prices of BTC, you will see the price going back and forth between 100 and 200 EMA. Not that i would trade it based on them though, but they seem good entry points to be aware of.
About new indicators, check the Bitcoin Misery Index, created by the same Tom Lee above. People are already developing some cripto indicators.
BTW, i would say that this isn't a bad time to add some BTC to your portfolio. Not for trading, but for HODLing. Who knows... Maybe Tom Lee is right.
BTW2, I think we have a bubble, but maybe its still a bit far away from popping.
BTW3, check this guy. He is a crypto trader, but not the bullshit type. Very realistic, and don't overhype things.
Thanks for the links. I like the idea of the 'Misery Index', couldn't have described it better....lol
I've seen some Crypto Investor vids before, he seems like a realist, which is rare ! Too many people with their head in the clouds at the moment. Recently I've been posting this pic to illustrate what we think of most crypto investors :-)
I dunno, this idea of holding (or hodling as you kids like to say) is just madness to everyone else. Start with $15k, maybe lose $1k and you can come back and play later with $14k, Or start with $15k and watch it disappear to $0k based on wishful thinking alone... It's exactly the opposite of what financial traders do.
Rule number one in trading, preservation of capital. If you lose capital, you lose the power to make decisions and eventually you can't play anymore. Take a little loss and come back when things are better, it's such a fundamental rule to success am astounded a lot of crypto investors can't understand it.
Shameless spam, but it just reminds me of my Dead Cat Bounce story...
Regarding Bitcoins history.. it will be interesting to see what happens to crypto during recessions and housing bubbles, whether it acts as a 'go to' storage like Gold, or the opposite.