[GnomoNews] ICOs falling, Bitcoin to the Moon, Twitterpocalypse
With the apartment moving foing foward, today i had some some time to write, and read the latest news of these last catastrophic days in the crypto markets. At least I'm not having the time to despair of looking at the price movement ...
But let's go to the interesting news I saw these days.
76% of the ICOs launched this year are at a loss
The site Bitcoin.com reported that 76% of the ICOs released this year are in red, with the market value lower than the launch value.
The data was collected through TokenData and ICOStats sites, and by comparing the tokens issued in 2018 with the Dollar or Ethereum, the average return of these ICOs is 0.9x.
Last year, the average return of all ICOs launched that year was 573.14%. Curious to know how were other years performance?
2016 - 1,695.53%
2015 - 32,563.59%
2014 - 29,570.35%
Although we only have 3 months in 2018, I do not believe that the ICOs that are emerging will not have the same average performance of previous years, considering the amount of new currencies that are being released, and the siege that the US government is doing to the launch of new ICOs without regulation.
Not to mention the numerous scams that happened (Bitconeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeecct)
Therefore, it is even more important this year to analyze well the fundamentals of that promising ICO that evybody is saying that will go to the moon, studying specially if the proposal is achievable.
I'm looking at some, but I think I'll have to increase my filter even more ...
Source: Bitcoin.com
Bitcoin worth US $ 91,000.00 in 2020?
Despite the despair of markets in recent days, some people hame some hope of a better future for Bitcoin.
The chart above has been around quite a bit in recent days. It is the projection published by Tom Lee of Fundstrat, a company that do market analysis, and on a logarithmic scale, shows that after the last 3 falls of 70% of the Bitcoin, the market has risen steadily.
It is an extremely optimistic projection, but given that Bitcoin has disappeared from the news of traditional media, it is possible that at some point we will have a restart of the cycle, when we see headlines about bitcoin everywhere.
In recent days, the price of Bitcoin has failed to break the $ 7,000 range, which seems to be a sign of consolidation.
But as we are talking about a market that does not seem to obey any apparent logic, always remember to only put in the game what you would not have problem in losing.
Source: Forbes
Twitter enters the dance of the banning of cryptic advertisements
[Image] (https://www.publicdomainpictures.net/en/view-image.php?image=240458&picture=twitter&jazyk=EN)
After Facebook and Google ban the advertisement of cryptos on their platforms, now it's Twitter's turn.
The rumor is that in two weeks, twitter will stop advertising any cryptocoin related ads.
Although many see this as a negative sign, I see the opposite. Most of the advertisements I see appearing related to crypto coins are from projects that do not have much substance, and try to sell the hype of some revolutionary idea that will be implemented in the blockchain.
Maybe this is the beginning of this year's filter that will eliminate the coins / tokens that will ultimately serve no purpose ...
Just do not mess with my DOGEs.
Source: Coindesk
Sorry, I had to laugh at the bitcoin chart, you know how I feel about such things :-)
I hope it does rally, I really do. I bet there are an awful lot of people in pain at the moment, especially those ones who got in on bad advice and now feel a little stupid and abandoned...
I'm a little bit dubious about the 70% decline thing followed by growth... seems a little like humans curve fitting what they want to see... If you told me it was on a Forex pair, and had been doing it every 3 months for the last 7 years I would be more inclined to believe it..
I think that's one of the reasons I won't touch crypto, no history. It doesn't behave like anything else, except maybe penny stocks, and there's just no statistical analysis to be done on it, not enough data over time. And as much as people like to think so, using Forex TA on crypto just doesn't work the same.
I think people are going to have to design some new indicators that are tuned just for crypto, probably momentum based ones would work best.
I know where you are coming from, and i think that as usual, humans always see patterns everywhere, even when they don't exist.
I am not saying that the graph is 100% accurate, but this guy, Tom Lee, show a bit more knowledge about crypto markets than most.
Altough i think BTC still have a lot of space to rise due to it's fundamentals (battle-tested, relative low market cap, good team working on the tech, very secure protocol, scarcity, etc. etc), the analysis is probably a bit far-fetched.
But on the other hand, BTC prices are mapped since 2012-2013 (5 years), wich i think is a pretty good time-frame, and maybe enough for some patterns start to be formed.
But the other criptos? Most of them started to apppear around 2015-2016, so not much history around...
I think BTC is the only crypto that make some sense to try to apply some classic TA tools. 50,100,200 EMA/SMA looks like a pretty good support indicators so far. If you check the latest prices of BTC, you will see the price going back and forth between 100 and 200 EMA. Not that i would trade it based on them though, but they seem good entry points to be aware of.
About new indicators, check the Bitcoin Misery Index, created by the same Tom Lee above. People are already developing some cripto indicators.
BTW, i would say that this isn't a bad time to add some BTC to your portfolio. Not for trading, but for HODLing. Who knows... Maybe Tom Lee is right.
BTW2, I think we have a bubble, but maybe its still a bit far away from popping.
BTW3, check this guy. He is a crypto trader, but not the bullshit type. Very realistic, and don't overhype things.
Thanks for the links. I like the idea of the 'Misery Index', couldn't have described it better....lol
I've seen some Crypto Investor vids before, he seems like a realist, which is rare ! Too many people with their head in the clouds at the moment. Recently I've been posting this pic to illustrate what we think of most crypto investors :-)
I dunno, this idea of holding (or hodling as you kids like to say) is just madness to everyone else. Start with $15k, maybe lose $1k and you can come back and play later with $14k, Or start with $15k and watch it disappear to $0k based on wishful thinking alone... It's exactly the opposite of what financial traders do.
Rule number one in trading, preservation of capital. If you lose capital, you lose the power to make decisions and eventually you can't play anymore. Take a little loss and come back when things are better, it's such a fundamental rule to success am astounded a lot of crypto investors can't understand it.
Shameless spam, but it just reminds me of my Dead Cat Bounce story...
Regarding Bitcoins history.. it will be interesting to see what happens to crypto during recessions and housing bubbles, whether it acts as a 'go to' storage like Gold, or the opposite.
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