Will Bitcoin ever Capitulate?
Hi traders, let's talk about the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin.
You've probably seen this chart a dozen times before:
This chart represents a market cycle, which is a rather wide term describing a period during which the price of an asset breaks out of its previous high, establishes a new high then proceeds to go bear before establishing a higher low or a lower low.
Bitcoin has arguably been through two major market cycles during its history, the first of which resulted in the creation of a higher low, the second of which is still playing out as I am writing these lines.
That first market cycle saw the price of Bitcoin ramp up from around a $100 USD to tag $1150 USD before bottoming around $150 and establish a new higher low after an agonizing 13 months (406 days) bear market:
The 2014 bear ended on a final dump which Barry Silbert cruelly dubbed Capitulation in a now-famous tweet:
A week later, news came up that the New York Stock Exchange and Spanish bank BBVA were investing in Coinbase.
Prompting shrewd investors and firms to provide support for the price of Bitcoin.
And the rest is history.
January 12th marked the beginning of a new market cycle which saw the price consolidate for a period of 6 months before skyrocketing to a ridiculous $19,891 USD, completely dwarfing the previous market cycle in the process.
And looking back with the benefit of hindsight, that period of consolidation between January 12th and August 17th, 2015 was indeed the time of maximal opportunity for Bitcoin investors.
A perfect blend of cheap price made possible by a prolonged bear market and extremely bullish fundamental news.
This model of market cycle has now entered the Bitcoin lore, setting precedent for the ways observers predict the market.
As a consequence, many observers (like BITMEX CEO Arthur Hayes who predicted a dump to $5,000), are now calling for capitulation before the market can find a fresh footing and off to a brand new market cycle.
But will such capitulation ever take place?
The "old" 2014 Bitcoin market bears little resemblance to its 2018 counterpart. Today's crypto market has more participants, more exchanges, more liquidity, more financial products, more institutional interest and more attention from the mainstream.
All of which have helped provide buoyancy for the price.
Heck, even technically those two markets look different.
So, back to you traders, do you think Bitcoin is still due to capitulate or have we already entered the time of maximum financial opportunity?
Until next time,
FØx.
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Trading with volume profile will give you an edge over 99% of traders out there. If you'd like to learn more about it I recommend you visit the Trader of Futures Youtube channel hosted by Ernie Varitimos. Ernie is an experienced trader with a lengthy background in technology which gives him a unique perspective on the market.
Recommended Exchange:
Coinbase
Decentralized Exchange:
Radar Relay
Kyber Network
Hardware Wallet:
LEDGER NANO S
May the FØx be with you.
Published on
by FØx
To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:
Hi! I'm a bot, and this answer was posted automatically. Check this post out for more information.
humm
Magic ball is right. We have not seen a capitulation yet.
we might never see one ;)
Excellent article. We have to be cautious during the coming weeks. Trading on shorts can be a good opportunity.
Thanks @toofastteddie :)
keep seeing bitmex mention lately. btw where do you do short trade ?
probably more downside after the current 4th dead cat maybe a tiny 5th one which put the timeline around sep/oct. Ultimately depends on whether the whale volume sentiment. NVT almost similar to the peak of 2014 bear
Hey man, I don't short trade, too much micro management for me, I am a swing trader, I just don't trade that much in bear markets.
What make you think this is another dead cat though :)
oic =) hibernate together with the bear
speculation ;)
from the part and pieces, only time will tell.
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