Bitcoin Rally Possibly Exhausted.
Hi traders, I am still sitting in cash, my bias remains bearish until proven otherwise.
Bitcoin.
This is a quick update from my previous post in which I laid out my strategy on this Bitcoin bounce.
I then advocated patience on this bounce and noted that Bitcoin had yet to muster enough momentum to break above the low volume level at $6700:
- I concluded:
I am keeping my powder dry until the market gives me a clear trading edge:
- multi-weeks sideways price action;
or- break out above $6700 with volume;
or- high volume dump to $4400.*
Update.
- So far the situation hasn't changed a notch. Bitcoin is squeezing its way up against resistance...
... but it's doing so on diminishing volume...
... and the larger trend clearly shows a gradual exhaustion of the bulls (each rally being smaller than the last) and the looming menace of that large volume well below $5700:
Consequently I remain extremely careful and not ready to commit more money on this move until I see some convincing breakout above $6700 with volume.
What about you traders, do you see this rally continuing into next week??
Here’s to hoping we see a decent amount of volume coming into the market in coming days.
Yeah, that or some consolidation would be nice :)
will be following...like your work..and thanks for visitng my blog!
Likewise, thanks :)
I put a little bit into bitcoin each month no matter, but that is because I am using it as a utility coin for trading--before that it just kind of set there. I'm pretty new to trading, but the method I like is the Ichimoku. Those indicators agree with you from what I can tell. We are still bearish and the future cloud is staying that way. Thank you so much for this post! Sometimes I feel like I'm going crazy because so many keep preaching the return of the bulls.
Hi @jeseil, I've never used the Ichimoku cloud, has it yielded good results so far?
I'm really new to it, but I am making more than I'm spending. I'd guess for me it works about 60% of the time. I want to think someone with more experience with it will have better results than that.
I am glad to hear that you're profitable man, that's what counts at the end of the day. If you're using Trading View, you might want to look at Volume Profile too, it's really useful to read the architecture of a market. Cheers!
best online site
Cheers!
Absolutely tired market. No enthusiasm. Major catalyst required. Even then, there's fatigue from the last run. I wouldn't be surprised if things stay sideways until end of the year.
Honestly I would absolutely love that, sideways is great for accumulation. Do you see Coinbase Custody having more effect on the price in the short term?
I don't see anything having any effect. For next big move either some manipulation pumps it or mainstream hypes something new about crypto that the masses don't know yet about, like dapps. A dapp that catches people's attention. That'll throw fuel on there. Even if the app doesn't work.
agreed, to add to your point the business ecosystem around Bitcoin is not there yet (apart from mining and exchanges), we're still looking for that killer app... maybe the Lightning Network.
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good work..but (see my lastest few..we called sell 15,000 Jan., buy 6800 April..sell 9750 late may I believe, and BUY cautiously 5850 9 days ago...SENTIMENT incereaseing as we're up again resistance..but lots of GOOD going on under the surface..thanks.
Hey man, I've been following your work, great TA so far, agreed lots of bullish news fundamentally but this hasn't really translated on the chart yet. If Monday turns out to be a green day I could see the market break out above $6700 but I am not holding my breath , cheers.
thank you!! and agree..just "not so neg..."! with poss. surprise to the upside.
I still consider this, including the prediction at the end of the post, to be correct: https://mentormarket.io/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/the-bear-is-over-at-least-for-now
That is some wild TA man :), worthy read though so you reckon we're back in phase 1 of the market (sideways)? I'd say it's possible but another way to read these triangles would be a weakening of each bullish rally foreshadowing a larger capitulation below support (6k).
Yeah, I like to do simple looking TA, it amounts to the same thing without being pretentious!
"Sideways" is pretty much what I would say for now. I expect upwards sideways (as silly as that may sound), followed by downwards sideways. After that I expect the bulls to be unleashed.
From an FA point of view I really can't see a capitulation below $6000 for BTC, but crypto is crazy so I won't say "never".
My bet is on more capitulation but sideways or up would be good for my long term bags haha
Man, don't take this the wrong way but: I really hope that you're wrong!
haha, I really hope I am wrong too!
Looks like you were right, at least for now 😔
Let's see if BTC finds a range between $5700 and $6700.
I think Tone Vays forecast is correct. Personally, I'm looking for < 5k before laddering in buys again. I think we could see the market bottom out in 2019 and see 20k again by summer, but the next mania / mass adoption attempt will be an order of magnitude above what happened in 2017. I think the next peak will be in early 2021. If the tech is ready next time solving the scaling issues, then we could plateau without a crash afterwards.
Sounds very reasonable to me, I am also not convinced 6k is fair value for BTC at this stage in the game, plus too many overvalued altcoins out there.
I completely agree. I’ve been warning investors of the same thing for the last few weeks. Each rally attracts fewer and fewer buyers. We need new money to enter the market. That’s not likely to happen until there's clear regulatory guidelines. Once that happens, we’re likely to see a bull run that’ll dwarf 2017. Until then, big money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the rules before playing the game.
Yeah, maybe the G20 financial task force will throw a little clarity this month, maybe.
To me this move is looking a lot like that move:
Thoughts?
I think many investors are waiting for the G-20 meeting on the 20th. Should we get some regulatory clarity, it may result in new money entering the market...or not. We'll see what they say.
I do see similarities between the 2 moves you've displayed...but the second is more impulsive. It was also able to break past a major descending resistance line that had been in place since December's highs.
That said, we aren't seeing the volume required to sustain it. We should know very shortly if this latest rise has any legs. If it's able to decisively break above the $6,800 resistance, I think we'll see at least $7,500-$7,700. If not, we may just see a repeat of the pattern you outlined above.
If your interested, I covered all of this and more in yesterday's update:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@workin2005/technical-analysis-on-bitcoin-all-eyes-on-usd6-800-resistance
Good points, going to read your update, thanks!