Bitcoin Market: Scaling into a dip buy but keeping ammo for capitulation.

in #cryptocurrency6 years ago (edited)

Hi traders, Bitcoin looks ripe for some capitulation so here's a quick post to remind you of my strategy.

the-fuji-from-the-mountains-of-totomi.jpg

Bitcoin.

  • I've started to scale into a dip-buy, my first position is around $5800 (starter size to buy some rekt altcoin) but I am looking at some real ugly capitulation to engage more of my trading capital.

  • By capitulation I mean some high volume daily candle similar to the one which formed when we plunged from 17k to 6k:
    1.png

  • High volume capitulations are great because they usually bounce but they're hard to catch so my plan is to put some low buy orders on the spot market (I almost never trade with leverage) and keep some fiat to buy on the spot in case my orders don't get filled.

Where would I place those orders?

  • Well, this is the chart from my last market update in which I predicted that we would dump to $5700 (we were trading at around $6600 then and we're currently trading at $5800) to that thin value node, grind there for a few days but eventually chew down through it and capitulate down to that "fat" value node around $4500:

images-ext-2.discordapp.png

  • As you can see there is a clear dip in volume support (red/green indicator on the right hand side of the image) below the $5700 value node, this means that if the price is given enough downwards momentum it should zip right through this area to hit the lower value node where the volume support is much larger.

images-ext-2.discordapp.png

Strategy.

My strategy is to keep an eye on how the price will behave around $5700:

  • if we start bouncing from there with volume I might consider adding to my starter position;
  • if we start grinding down and the volume keep shrinking then I'll keep my fiat for the real capitulation to around $5000- 4400 where I'll probably scoop up a few Bitcoins and wait for a bounce;
  • if a bounce doesn't materialize at that price then I'll have to reconsider and I'll keep you updated then.

Are you enjoying this bear trend?

Trade safe ya'll

Sort:  

Hi Dan, for the first time I sold some btc to Dai, and I'm waiting to see what happens short term. Will be following your views. Thanks!!

Hi @etka, how are you doing mate? did you buy your Dai on Radar Relay?

Hey mate, all good... Getting through the dip hahaha... Some on Kyber and some on Idex. I just love Decentralized exchanges

Great to hear man, yeah DEX are definitely awesome, I just wish they had more volume :( some DEX markets are all crickets and tumbleweeds

Hi @tradealert, you have received an upvote from tradealert. I'm the Vietnamese Community bot developed by witness @quochuy and powered by community SP delegations.

There is Some Regulation Issues in India and Some Other's Countries Therefore Cryptocurrency is Down Now. Wait Some Days Crypto Will Bullish Soon Sir.

I am sure it will recover eventually :)

Thanks on the update @Dan. Im still in wait and see mode here. I was tempted to buy around 5800ish but these small bounces keep turning downward lately!

Hi @scalerman, $6k is proving hard to crack though, we're back at $6100 this morning, but I agree prudence is required, how have you been?

Doing ok here thanks @Dan. Im staying on the sidelines for now. The whole crypto space seems to be adjusting and I haven't been able to give it much attention lately. Your post makes sense as usual. There's gotta be profits after this dip somewhere!

Just curious...did you call SELL at 15,000 and above? do you look at or understand market sentiment? Curious.

Hi @yankee-statman, I didn't call sell because I don't give investment advice but I wrote about closing 50% of my BTC around 10k ($700 entry)
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@tradealert/bitcoin-trade-alert-the-wall-street-moment
and about closing more of my trading bags on the bounce at around 16k:
https://steemit.com/crytptocurrency/@tradealert/bitcoin-trading-the-bounce
I even called Bitcoin a bubble:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@tradealert/bitcoin-is-in-a-bubble-charts-don-t-lie

I've also made my fair share of mistakes, but I've always advised my crowd to be careful when the price started to go parabolic.

As for market sentiment, I use mainly google trends and social media/reddit/news to gauge the market.

excellent! and much appreciated..

my pleasure :) feel free to have a look around, we've been doing very well in this bear trend.

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