Bitcoin Market: Bounce Overdue.

in #cryptocurrency6 years ago (edited)

Hi traders, a larger Bitcoin bounce could be in the work.

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Bitcoin.

  • As I discussed in my last article, failure to break below $5700 could play in favor of the bulls and produce a bounce.

  • After 6 weeks of almost uninterrupted selling, price has now started to form a rounded bottom on the weekly:

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... what's more the weekly Stoch RSI is completely oversold and has started to cross over, which historically has been quite a reliable indicator of a bounce:

2.png

  • In terms of volume, we can see that $5700 provided enough support for the price to absorb the last of that low momentum bearish grind...
    4.png

... which is lucky considering that the absence of volume below $5700 suggests that a clean, high momentum break below this level would have most certainly sent the price tumble back down to $4400 on a capitulation candle:

QmTZ5fQ9xiu84j2cGTcrreG6oWSoyWCX85iPt8KHpoEvFq.png

  • Interestingly, we can see that the $6000-ish support has now been tested successfully on three occasions in this bear market. This tells me that there s a good chance that $6000 could actually be where the market has found fair value for Bitcoin.

5.png

If $6000 were to be where the market has found fair value, then what happens next will depend on regulations.

G20.

This July the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)...

bb1aa58389b6ba7ed315d64f4cfd798d.jpg

...which is the financial arm of the G20, will submit their recommendations regarding the regulation of crypto currencies.

4.png

My take is that we might not see a lot of action in the market until the G20 comes up with some recommendations regarding global regulation of cryptocurrencies. Mind you this G20 story could also turn out to be a complete non-event in which case it would be interesting to see how the market would react.

Until then I recommend you keep a close eye on the $5700 level for the sake of risk management and frequently check the FAFT website for updates. Don't trade the chops and keep dry powder for some high probability trades like a high volume dump or a clear prolonged accumulation.

What do you think of the market traders? Is $6000 fair price for Bitcoin?

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@tradealert I think, bitcoin er rate increases has started, after the G20 meeting, bitcoin's rate could go up a lot, 2018 could go from $ 15,000 to $ 20000, it seems to me, what is your opinion ??

Hi @milanm, I don't really see us going back to $20,000 this year mate, at least not without a huge break-through in adoption which I think is still a long shot, the technology is just not ready for mainstream users yet.

@tradealert But we are all waiting, towards last 2018, maybe a good profit is coming,

We'll see, I surely wouldn't mind some bullish action :)

@tradealert Yess, is starting a little bit longer, but can not catch uptrend well, when bitcoin gets its way, bitcoin will run alone

very good posting !!!!
If you can visit my profile, I'm grateful.

Thanks mate :)

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Thank you for the good analysis, I see the value in looking at the market in this manner.

Thanks @crypto-investor, on a personal level I believe that Bitcoin is still overvalued at $6000 but I can see the case why some large players could have an interest in providing price support at this level (miners defending break even price for example). However it could very well be another 6 months to a year of bear trend before we go back into accumulation and kick off a brand new market cycle. Exciting times ahead for those who traded wisely though ! Cheers!

Great T/A thanks mate

Nice one.

Question for you please: What is the name of that indicator you use to show a visual order book on the side of Trading view?

Hi @bitbrain, it's called volume profile.

In Trading View go to:
Indicators > Volume Profile > Visible Range

Let me know if you have any questions about it :)

Many thanks. I haven't used that one before, looks incredibly useful!

Ru
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