Bitcoin (BTCUSD); Could The Major Pattern Fail? Two Things That Concern Me
Everyone is watching the large descending triangle that has been developing in the BTC price since the February lows this year. I have written about my target prices, depending on which way the pattern breaks here and have looked at the shorts that have been rising also.
But two things concern me at the moment. The first is that EVERYONE is watching this pattern and when everyone is watching, quite often patterns fail to resolve with a text book outcome, that being a break in either direction in this case. Also, price has moved a helluva long way in to the apex and has still failed to break.
Both of these things tell me that there is an increasing probability that price could just continue to meander sideways and fail to break in either direction, providing disappointment to both bulls and bears alike!
The takeaway here is that as always, anything can happen and nobody knows exactly what that will be. Price may break up or down but we can't rule out continued sideways movement either. So we need to wait. We need to wait for price to tell us what it is going to do next before jumping in for the next big move that may not even come.
Exactly, we have to wait and be patient, most likely it is going to move sideways during some time between 5700 and 6700$... but when the market will decide is enough, it will move very explosively...
The question is always personal... am I comfortable buying/selling at this level of price?
The strategy is, mainly, ladder your entries and never go all-in in this case
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As you say, entry points depend on your process. For me, i'll wait for confirmation of any move before attempting to trade. There is an opportunity cost of sitting on an asset that isn't moving.
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What I would suggest after reading this, is that cryptocurrency (unlike stocks) is actually, way, way more predictable. It threw me off when I was new to crypto.
Cryptocurrency actually very often, just follows the predicted patterns it gives. The "unpredictable" behavior is usually you'll have a brief contrary move, just before the chart pattern is followed-through and proven valid.
So we had that little dip before the wedge broke for the upside. Crypto likes to do the last-second head fakes, but then just go for what it was going to do all along. Look at all the BTC waves following the crash, each one was highly predictable. So predictable, it actually causes us to second guess ourselves.
Why is crypto so predictable? I have no idea, other than the nature of a multi-year bull market has to play out in a predictable pattern, it can only bubble, crash, and then bubble again, and all of this devolves into predictability.