Arguing that a possible correction could come to Crypto currencies somewhere between 9,5 - 20 times the size of todays total Market cap.

Crypto currencies are growing at a pace larger than anyone really dares to predict. If you predicted the growth of the crypto markets correctly last year or even last week, you'd sound like a total nutter. "The crypto market will grow 1000% this year" or "the crypto market will grow 50% the next week" are actually pretty accurate predictions. Yet very few dare to give prognoses like that. We're all acting conservative and almost trying to stop the price from going up too fast.

 

The Questions

And as the market continue to grow at a pace that's almost ridiculous - one have to ask oneself if it's sustainable. Is there something we've missed? Is the potential of applicability of cryptos on the world as big as we like to believe? Will it interconnect with the robotics industry? Well every website, every application, every online business, every service be built on top of Blockchain technology in the future? And how fast will it happen? Are we being too positive, and pouring money into projects that basically just have a website - valuing them at 100 million dollars? Are these prices realistic?

Also, that's just the utility side of Blockchain. Then it's the currency side. Most people only know about the currency side of cryptos. They've heard about Bitcoin and possibly Ethereum if they're a little familiar with the concept of Blockchain.

The answers

I've been discussing this many times before, and there is no doubt Blockchain technology is a groundbreaking and world changing technology. And it seems to me like the world was ready for it, in a much greater way than when the Internet came about.

The problem with Internet and the Dot.com bubble was that people had all these great ideas, whereas the technology and know how, but most importantly consumer participation was not following. The infrastructure and technology was not there yet. So you could have a great idea, but it would be almost impossible to follow through.

And consumers and investors as well had just made a quantum leap into the future. Going from Internet not existing, to Internet existing was such a new thing that hardly anyone could imagine the possibilities.

Today we are surrounded with technology, and even if some skeptics don't understand Blockchain technology, most people are adjusting to the idea of robotics, automation, decentralization, "sharing economy" and more and more people are even questioning what currencies really are.

In my opinion, we are more ready for this technological leap than we were when Internet and computers first came around. ALSO, another important thing is the time frame. It's easy to think that since it took 20 years for Facebook to appear on the Internet, it will take just as long for something of similiar importance to happen. But it won't. Things grow and blossom much faster this time around. The volatility, but also price increase and value of the crypto markets is unlike any market we've ever seen in history of mankind.

And it does not seem to stop. Like my writing, it seems to go on endlessly. But to sum it up, I believe the time is right, and that this can and will be the correct time in history to change history. People are full of optimism and ideas, and it feels like an unstoppable tidal wave.

Facts

1. Crypto currencies are now at $770 billion USD

2. The World's gold is at $7,7 trillion USD, which is 10 times the Crypto market.

3. The global stock markets are more than $80 trillion wich is 100 times the crypto market. The crypto market is in other words 10% of the gold market and 1% of the global stock markets.

4. The Crypto market is less that 1% of the broad money market which is at $90 trillion and which includes coins, banknotes, money markets, savings and checking.

5. Total Debt is $215 trillion.

6. The total derivative market is $1,5 quadrillion or higher - no one really knows (The derivative market is basically the scam-market that banks are doing with futures, forwards, options, warrants, swaps etc)

But if we look at Cryptos position compared to the global stock market AND broad money market, it's currently at 0,5% of that.

 

So, it's at 0,5% of it's competitors. With all the FUD and media attention Bitcoin has been getting, one should almost believe it was at 50%. But truth to be told, ALL cryptos - which increasingly is utility tokens, is only at 0,5%.

If we compare it to the entire scam scheme con-markets the banksters are running, it's less than 0,01%.

New Dot-com Bubble?

Not yet IMO. We are definitely seeing quite a lot of projects that are in my opinion valued way too high that people are speculating on. But we are also seeing some humanity changing projects taking form. I don't think we will see bubble tendencies just yet.

The top 280 Dot com stocks in 2000 were valued at approximately $3 trillion at their peak. We're at $700 billion and the year is 2018 - and the world economy and the world markets are much much larger.

But for fun, let's just say we're in a bubble at $3 trillion. That's 4,5x from now. And the Dot.com bubble scraped off $1,5 trillion. So we'd still be at $1,5 trillion market cap.

That's probably not going to be the case. In 2000 the global stock market was less than half that of today. It was at $30 trillion dollars. The Dot coms were therefore almost 10% of the entire world stock market in valuation!

For cryptos to reach that level we need the total valuation of crypto currencies to be at $7 trillion USD. That's 10x from now.

So according to our bubble-theory we could see a bubble forming somewhere between 4,5x from now and 10x from no, which would be a total market capitalization of $3,37 trillion (low estimate) to $7,7 trillion (high estimate) But that's without correcting for the fact that the total global stock market is twice as high today as in 2000. Which would estimate a correction of Crypto currencies somewhere between 9x and 20x from today's level.

Also, don't forget - we have all ready established that cryptos are not just stocks, but also currencies. That could absolutely speak for much higher prices before a possible correction. Remember, this is just simple play with history and numbers.

Cryptos relative to the 2000s tech stocks.

But that is just looking at the past, and it is only looking at former trends. However, I think there is a real possibility that we could see some big correction between those numbers somewhere. But does that really matter if you're in the markets now, or been in the markets for a year or two?

We all know what happened after the Dot com bubble, even though people rarely mention it. Well, after a few years, former price highs were beaten and tech stocks surged beyond all imagination. Anyone invested in apple or google or Nvidia became millionaires or even billionaires. How did they achieve that? Mostly by HODLING.

Conclusion for the lazy asses. I argue for a possible large correction somewhere between 9,5 times to 20 times the size of todays market cap - which is between $7,3 trillion and $15,4 trillion USD.