🤑 BECOMING RICH - EP. 36. - Times are Changing... 🤑
I haven't wrote one of these in a long time, mostly because I have felt a little bit of disgust in me after I lost a lot of money with all these ETH based ICO's. I am still in a drawdown there, things might change, but only after next spring in my opinion, so I am probably stuck with the losses probably for the year. I doubt the holiday season will help it either.
So I haven't even traded that much even since then, my last investing journal post was this one:
And since then I barely traded, only a little bit of Monero, ETH and Dash, but nothing significant since I am still waiting for a recovery in the other markets. Mostly I am stretched out so I am not going to risk more. Sure they will have a positive long term perspective but at the moment I am toasted.
BTC
It also looks like some of the correlation between BTC and some altcoins is breaking up, meaning that BTC is not the king of the jungle anymore. I start to be more and more disappointed in BTC as the day goes by, even though it was my favorite for a long time, but it's not like I trust BCH either, it is a potential competitor to BTC, and it might very well replace it, if they don't fix the scaling issue, however I am not going to risk it, and it will take a lot of propaganda and censorship to prevent the BTC users from going to BCH even though the fees are much better there and it's in general a much better community, that being said possible DDOS wars could start, in which case neither sides would end up being the winner, and that would probably involve a big scale Government crackdown eventually, so a lot of money would be at risk anyway in my view.
I just don't see anything positive in the BTC community right now, furthermore I have estimated, mostly on my gut feelings, but also on my experience and event analysis that the current expectancy for buying BTC right now is −0.763021776, which means a 76 cent loss on the dollar. It's arbitrary but I don't think it's far from reality. With all these shenanigans going on, it's not a good time for a bull market.
Not even the holiday season is going to save it, despite it's bullish nature, it's as if we are going to have a very very "black friday". It's all based on speculation and a few spoiled chinese kids gambling in the markets, this is not something that genuine merchant demand will replace, especially not when your average TX fee is 35.39$, yes 35$, so forget about Christsmas presents in BTC, it's over.
Again BCH might gain some grounds in the Christsmas season and Black Friday, whatever, but not if there is a general panic in the market by then, so we will see if things calm down until then.
Imminent Crash
So I predict an imminent crash in BTC, which might last until next year's spring. Now I don't think most altcoin markets will be affected, or not to a big degree, but still they will be. Especially the coins that have a smaller correlation factor, they will lose less, like Steem.
Other than that I think a lot of money will go back to USD, and that will further incentivize the Chinese to implement capital controls, and perhaps even US government involvement too. You know all that money flowing back, taxes and all of that.
But not all of it will go back to the USD in my opinion, some of it might change allegiance to BCH, which at that point will be a permanent loss to BTC not just a quick "haven". And Dash & Monero might come out winners too. Even Ethereum with it's upcoming hardfork on the 17th (if they don't screw up like last time of course), but I'd not buy ETH for that simple reason.
SBD & Steem
Other than that a safe haven is probably the best idea now, if not USD, then perhaps SBD, I mean it stores the value of 1$ on the blockchain and it's accesible from Steemit, why not that? I think SBD is a good safe haven.
I would not sell Steem either, I would not buy it right now, but I would not sell it either. It might take a small hit if BTC collapses, but Steemit is better than ever, and I am sure the price will recover and hit an all time high, especially since more and more people are fleeing the censorship of the Social Media's. I have no doubt about the success of Steemit, so I would hold Steem.
On the other hand I would turn all BTC,ETH & BCH into SBD as soon as possible, I don't think the price can go up at a 90 degree angle that much longer so a crash might be imminent, and in imminent I mean in a couple of hours.
That will lock in the purchasing power of those coins at their current near all time highs, and they can be rebought after the crash ends, and possibly making money at the next rally. Perfect riding method in my opinion.
Dash & Monero
Perhaps if people want to anticipate the next rally they can buy Dash & Monero ahead of time as well if they want to assume the risk of uncertainty with BTC.
Times are changing so I think it’s a good time to adapt to it, after all only the fittest trader survives the game!
Save your Money & Profit From this Cash!
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ICOs have lost their lustre and I have not got into ICO for a long time. My last two ICO saw a contribution of a grand total of 1.5ETH to test the water. The price on these are down and its paints a big picture gong forward. However, my small contributions to earlier ICOs are still doing very well because they are possibly the first movers and ICOing very early on in the year means release of working platform in the next month to three months. So they are starting to bear fruits.
The machine gun approach to selecting ICO no longer rules the day. Maybe during the earlier days when everything went up as soon as thy hit the exchanges but no longer. You now have to pick and choose carefully even then it is still hit and miss. Going forward, ICO should be considered as investment for the long term and not for immediate capital gains.
Even BTC is subject to big swings, so buy and hold unless you are a dad hand at trading. As long as there are ICO, ETH does not appear to be going anywhere.
Steem at this low price is a steal especially with BTC nearing another ATH. Reap the appreciation over time whilst using SP to grow your stash by upvoting and commenting and the various tools like Streemian and Minnowbooster to generate passive income.
Yep, I think the swings in BTC will cause a lot more losses to people than my current (unrealized) losses in some of the best ICO's that are heavily undervalued right now but have real potential behind it like VERI.
It remains to be seen.
I read some of your posts trading Populous. The real use ICO I see at the moment is probably Populous and they are going live with their beta in the new few weeks I hear big news on the grapevine. I have written extensively about Populous and if you are interested here is the link https://steemit.com/populous/@marcusxman/populous-full-steam-on-the-spur-line.
Synereo ??
I'm still holding AMP, I will write a detailed article soon, others requested it too.
It's an interesting case, the devs are working hard behind the scenes, there is constant activity on the Slack chat, and a new patch was released a week or so ago.
Yet it doesn't seem to take off, simply because there is no promotion of it. I think I am the only one that featured it here on Steemit and a few other guys, but sometimes there are a few newspapers that pick up on it too.
I think a massive marketing campaing is needed. Who knows they might be just fixing the bugs right now and when they feel ready i think they might do some promotional activity later, because without it, it won't take off.
I think right now they are just working on the software and the website which goes get some updates frequently.
It's one of those "no talk, only action" kind of teams, and that is good for people who want to buy cheap because usually the price only takes off after the buzz.
Thank for your answer. I'm a bit disappointed.
I am waiting for their next roadmap point, some kind of announcement should come out soon, people are really eager to see some advances now, I can see your frustrations.
Thanks for the post. A good read.
I have so much to learn re crypto.
Since you invest have you seen K!M & bitcache from kim dotcom?
Launching an ICO soon I think. A new version of mega
I tried the beta play version, very easy to use. I think it will do well.
So could be good for an investor?
I don't know I am not investing in ICO's anymore regardless of how good it is, the price is just too unstable in the beginning so people could very well invest at the top price and then the price might collapse 90% before it goes back up again.
Investing into an illiquid market was one of the biggest mistakes that I made. There has to be a level of popularity before the price becomes reasonably attractive.
Thanks Sir @profitgenerator
What do you think about litecoin?
Wow..a non- "to the moon!" post on Stemit? So its possible to loose in cryptoland? Im shocked, but refreshed..thanks @profitgenerator
Well I am not an market extremist nor a shill, you have to stay rational and ahead of the sheep crowd.
"you have to stay rational and ahead of the sheep crowd." I will definitely read that sentence every time I read any more news this month!
your new follower!
maybe I make a little post about that sentence, is that ok for you?
Yes of course you dont need to ask permission.