Second Guessing Bulls & Bears will only get you bitten!

in cryptocurrency •  6 months ago

One of the talking points in crypto last week was the dramatic increase in shorts on Bitfinex.

This was followed days later by a crash in the price of cryptocurrency.

Crypto armageddon is nigh?


While it is tempting to get carried away with conspiracies, second guessing what market manipulation is going on and future gazing on how it's likely to play out, I'd like to sound a word of caution.

In the short term cryptocurrencies are going to be volatile and vulnerable to market manipulation. That is a given. It is also a given that it's uncertain how things are going to play out.

Playing the long game

I like to be guided by my own long term view, i.e. do I believe that a given cryptocurrency is under or over-valued long term? And let that guide my action in the short term.

I'll give an example.

I remember in the early days of Ethereum, when Ether was around two dollars. I saw these huge sell walls go up and disappear then go up again on Poloniex. I (like many others) was wondering whether Ether go to 50 cent.

I was wondering whether to sell my tiny stash of Ether (I couldn't even get the wallet to sync... how popular could this platform get?) and 'maybe' buy back when it went lower.

It would have been easy to 'while away' hours pontificating on the 'technicals' and the daily swings, checking coinmarketcap every 5 minutes.

History repeating?

Fast-forward two years and we're in a similar boat... people are wondering whether Ether (along with every other cryptocurrency) are under or over valued. The price is at a "crisis point". The only difference is that instead of the debate happening at $2 it is happening at $200.

Similarly with Steem, 80 cents is talked of as a floor today, a year and a half ago, similar talk was happening at 7 cents.

You can probably say the same for many cryptocurrencies. Some went on to explode up in value, on the flip-side others went to zero.

I find it is better (for my sanity as well as my pocket) to think in terms of whether a coin is likely to 10x or lose 90% of it's value in 2 years, then to fret about what short term plays are being made by today's protagonists.

Just a thought... not financial advice of course!

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Well said. Only future will tell. It's not different with the way the stock markets work although the crypto market is way more speculative and uncertain. Companies noted on the stock market with a conservative profile like for example the coca cola company will have it up's and downs but their product and turnover makes it more likely they will go up in the long term.

Crypto's rise and disappear so their future is highly uncertain. But it's the same for certain tech stocks. Who know if Tesla will still exist in 5 year or will be a company that makes millions of cars a year.

too many into crypto now and there's a lot of big shark controlling the price for earn the "in between", if the project is good enough, just spend a little bit time and wait for it

Situation whatsoever be, gradually cryptocurrencies will surpass fiat economy.


I think so to.

Good informative article.
well done my dear friend.

nice post steem,,,
follow me

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It still hurts to look at my portfolio but with the current market situation I just try to bring down the average book prize of the coins in which I do have faith in. I am in it for the long term and do more see it as my retirement funds than as my lambo project!
But don't get me wrong I would mind if a lambo would be possible, not that I would be bying one, but still.

It is strange that people did have not fear to but NEO for instance half a year ago above $100 and now doubt it to buy it below $30.
This is valid for all coins. I did select 5 coins in my portfolio where I still believe in, and each month when the paycheck arrives I will buy some more!
But with the lessons learned when I do see an increase of 50%, I will seel 50% of the freshly purchased ones.

bitcoin is a big paltform.....

With all I have seeing in terms of potential, the crypto market cannot fail. I expect a rebound in the long term and am not bothered with these short term swings

Hey @nanzo-scoop! Wondering if you're still interested in doing an interview on our show? Do you have a discord or account i can reach you at? Thanks!

I couldn't agree more, especially with your title, if you get septic in terms of a bear market you will hold until the prices beat the ground, and the opposite is also true, if you second guess yourself about a bull market it is very likely that you will miss out on the rise of the prices.

In my opinion we have all the right moves allining to repeat history, and even if that doesn't happen, "the worst" is long gone, the hard correction has passed and now we will see a different type of volatility (if you know what I mean).

what i think is history will repeat and the value will reach peak again highest peak ever ...


agree with u, this is a circle..will keep repeat and repeat same things XD

Well holding is more painful right now the crypto game is going up


Well holding is more
Painful right now the crypto
Game is going up

                 - blazing

I'm a bot. I detect haiku.


It will all moon!

In a recent past I have came across with several financial advises but believe you me the way this composed and calm head @nanzo-scoop analysis the situation is highly appreciable. The point you elaborated how one and half years ago a debate was happening on 7 cent and now on 80 cent actually gave me positive wibes. This is what we call the experience.

Thank you so much for this awesome Blog @nanzo-scoop <3

Lovely view @nanzo-scoop, but am still interested in knowing more about this popular coins

So my question is Do you think ether and steem can still hit their previous highs before the close of the year?

Id be really happy to get your response. Thanks :D

Like most people, it can be easy for me to get caught up in the hype of "buy now" or "sell immediately." Like you said, I think it's better to have a long-term view of it. So if the company is sound, it doesn't matter whether the price is high or low. If it's a good company, it will go up in the long-run, so just buy and then wait it out.

I am also thinking long term on my investments, particularly steem which brought me to crypto. I can bet you @nanzo-scoop that all the doomsdayers and naysers will regret dumping 5heir assets five years down the road.

I'm quite prepared for the 7 cent Steem. If thinking about long term, the price really doesn't have much effect, maybe only for the ticket to SF3 atm, it hurts seeing Steem is so low...

Congratulations @nanzo-scoop!
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I just powered up a bit more. I'm sure Steem will go up again soon. 😊

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I think long term as well and all top 10 coins seem to be undervalued. We will hit a recession soon and when we do we are gonna want to be in crypto or precious metals. I'll stick to holding instead of trading. You never know when that next bull run will begin.


as in now is not low enough??


It can still go a bit lower but not much more. I just bought and I'm ready to hold mid to long term for now. I don't want to try to time the ultimate low.

I feel this bear can last another year or so.