So... in the first part I established why I think that all the other asset classes are in a horrible bubble and will come down in the next crash.
So why would Crypto react differently in my eyes than for example Gold and Silver in 2008 in a massive crash?
There are several reasons:
- Crypto can only be shorted to a small extent on some exchanges, not as massively as Gold and Silver, where a years production can be thrown on paper into the market in 5 minutes.
- People in the cryptospace know much more about real economics than their counterparts in banks for example. They do not believe in general the keynesian BS. Many people follow the austrian school of economics and know what is going on. That there is nothing like a "free lunch".
- Governments will print once again trillions of currency units in order to keep the system from going under, but the supply of cryptos cannot be expanded in the same proportion. Many people will notice this and in their search of safe-haven from all this madness the only space they will see is the cryptospace...
So, given the type of conscious-minded logically thinking investor in the cryptospace, he will not seek safety that time around in an undergoing currency... this is why he investedin this in the first place.
Banks who speculate in Gold and Silver contracts (and not in tangible assets in this case), they seem to not understand this neither... as they dumped these "certificates" last time around. But they are not in this space and will not be able to dump anything, because they do not have it.
So everybody will search of a new asset where to find shelter... and the only asset which in my eyes will profit is CryptoCurrency. So they will go there. But seeing all this shit going on around them, the Crypto-Investors will not sell their units to others for the same price as before... when this emergency happens, no one will want to sell if the price is not magnitudes higher than before....
I do not know if this thing happens this year or in 5 years.... Seeing the absolute madness going on I would think rather sooner than later... But with each day that goes by I see the possibility rising.
Disclaimer: Nothing I say is investment advice, but just my opinion.