Will Cryptos establish a new monetary realm this autumn with a Trillion+ in MarketCap? Part 1

in #cryptocurrency7 years ago

Disclaimer: this is no investment advice... just my thoughts.

In the next crash there will be no asset save from crashing apart from Cryptos which will rise as we have never seen before...

Part 1: Existing asset classes today which hold Trillions in volume

Let us analyze all the different Investment-Opportunities which are there as of now available to the average uninformed Joe:

Bonds

Everyone knows that bonds are not cheap anymore with many having negative yields. These bonds are supported by central bank buying (they buy all the shit no one else wants to buy anymore and in increasing quantities) and investments from pension plans from people who have no idea what to invest in. Their policies force them to buy that stuff and hope to be able to sell it later to a central bank or bigger idiot when they have redemptions.

When inflation gets out of hand and panic sets in, or Yellen keeps rising interest rates a panic could set in and bonds could crash tremendously to yields of 10% or more... at this point it becomes obvious to everybody that the entire budget of states is not enough to even pay the interest. Panic can follow, and the only massive bond-buyers can become the central banks hyperinflating the currency which makes bond-holders even more higher yield demanding as their principal gets inflated away.

Equities

But even if the yields do not get any higher than 10%... equity markets will not be ok with a 0.5% dividend yield anymore, as they can invest now in bonds yielding 10%, so even the principal might get inflated away, equities have risks as well, as customers can stop demanding the products which a company produces and so the company can go bankrupt as well... I do not even want to mention the debt-financed equity-buy-backs which some companies have made, going into debt in order to make the stock price rise and get some of the CEO's better option price bonus compensation.

Houses

Houses depend as well on the interest rate... 0% interest rate means that the house prices are at their maximum. Only if borrowers get paid interest instead of creditors this could get higher... A rise in interest rates will smash this investment as well.
Also, there are many people with savings of less money than what a flat costs today (try to find a cheap flat in any major city today... it does not have to be Tokyo or Hong Kong). And everybody is up in ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages).

Gold and Silver

Yeah... all Libertarians love those assets (me too in the past)... but I can remember very well how they behaved under interest rate increases or crash situations like in 2008... Silver crashed from 25 USD more or less to 7 USD and change, as everybody liquidated whatever positions they had because they needed the cash...

##So last time it was the USD which rose against all odds and asset classes.

What might happen the next time? Please subscribe if you do not want to miss the second installment of this article...

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Good analysis. Thank you!

Thank you for commenting!

What if next time the central bank crash the dollar, you will be happy with anything but the dollar

I will go into this in the next installment... Thanks for your comment!

No problem. I just like it very much every time!

The next big market crash is definitely coming. A lot of the underlying issues were never addressed after the housing market collapsed in 2008. The banks that were heavily involved in creating the nightmare are still at it now...

Usually it is always surprising... this time I think it is only a matter of when, but this shit seems to be in its outcome very predictable...

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