Is This the 2013 Bear Market All Over Again for Cryptocurrencies?
A lot of discussion is still taking place around whether or not this bear market will play out like in 2013 where we witnessed a multi-year bear market.
One person disagrees, and that person is Parabolic Trav. I'll be taking a look at his line of reasoning and offering some of my thoughts. Let me know what you think!
DISCLAIMER: This is NOT financial advice. I am just offering my opinions. I am not responsible for any investment decisions that you choose to make.
In 2013, the crypto ecosystem had a only a handful of exchanges and every news report on bitcoin was referencing drugs and the Silk Road. Imho today's environment has almost nothing in common with the situation back in 2013.
I doubt we are in a long term bear market, 2013 was different in that way fewer people knew about crypto and blockchain, there are more people involved in crypto than ever before (I think), and therefore the prices will continue to grow.
I think the worst possible outcome is relative stability, which would mean ups and downs, but lingering int he 300-500 billion total market cap range. And I think that would likely not last more than 3rd quarter 2018 because again there are simply too many new interested people, too many people who are interested in blockchain, that were not in the game before, and this new reach will lead to growth this year IMO.
Having said all that, if I am wrong, and if prices do go down, or remain stagnant for multiple years, WOW, what a gift that would be! That would literrally be the greatest financial opportunity of my life, in that I would have an extended period of time to accumulate crypto at prices that will in my view, one day soon be paltry.
Crypto is here to stay, and parabolic growth well beyond our highest highs are coming, whether in 3-6 months, or 3-6 years, I don't really care, I'm convinced, I'm holding, and I'm looking forward to buying more.
Thanks for the post. :)
The last bear market lasted for 17 months, during which total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell by ~76% from its all-time high. If you'd invested $400 in BTC and $400 in the bottom 20 alt-coins (by market cap), then as of today's date, your investments would be worth ~$11,564 (BTC) and ~$18,740 (alts)--a total of ~$30,304--despite the fact that 16 out of the bottom 20 alts disappeared in the intervening years. I believe the lesson here is to spread your alt-coin investments out.
According to CoinMarketCap, during the earlier bull market, total crypto market capitalization peaked on November 30, 2013, at ~$15.2 billion. Thereafter, a long bear market began, during which total market cap bobbed up and down for over a year, hitting its first major low of ~$3.6 billion on January 16, 2015--a ~75% drop--and then going back up to as high as ~$4.7 billion in mid-March. Finally, on April 26, 2015, the market hit bottom at ~$3.5 billion--a ~76% drop.
This year, total crypto market cap hit an all-time high of ~$828 billion on January 7, 2018. If the current bear market were to exactly mirror the 2013-2015 bear market (and it won't, but this is still a good jumping-off point), then we would expect to see the market hit a low of ~$196 billion by mid-June 2019.
As I write this, we're currently at ~$260 billion (i.e., down ~68.5% from ATH), having hit a low of ~$248 billion in the past few weeks (i.e., down ~70% from ATH). This suggests that we may still have a significant distance to go--both in terms of time (i.e., another ~14 months) and market cap lost (i.e., ~25% of the current market cap)--before we see the bottom of the current market. I'm personally somewhat more bullish than that, as I think any correction will be over by the end of Q3 2018, but that's what would happen if this crash were to exactly mirror the last one.
I like your post very much to me. I hope this is always better post than ever.
Bear markets make people a lot of money, they just don’t know it at the time.” For some of us looking at our crypto currency portfolios and trading accounts right now, this quote, by Shelby Davis, couldn’t seem further from the truth. But, the truth is, investing, and even trading, has never been about “right now.” There is an ebb and flow nature of all things in life, markets are far from excluded.
No the crypto market is different , you will not see here something that already happen ....
All I believe is that long therm crypto will rise, just because of dollar getting weaker.
In my humbled opinion no one knows what will the market look like in the next few months. All I believe is that long therm crypto will rise, just because of dollar 💵 getting weaker.
Well, let's see if this develops like it did in 2013. I certainly believe there's a bright future ahead and thet the whole game is still at its infancy stage, however that's just me! No crystal ball here! Let's see.
That’s right! There are always bears and bulls. The truth is it’s all just a speculation. For every bull market there is bear market. I think we will be sideways for a few months.