Bitconnect Investment
I started investing in Bitconnect about 2 months ago, and I have been paid based on their daily interest calculations (https://bitconnect.co/learning-center/bitconnect-bitcoin-price-volatility-software#).
The high paying interest rates make you think that the whole thing must be a BS. However, being in this extremely volatile environment of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies makes you think twice.
Bitconnect (BCC) leverages on the price volatility of Bitcoin and based on the money you lend to BCC, "Bitconnect Trading Bot" buys/sells Bitcoin, and as a result makes profits on the BTC price differences.
I've done an analysis on the Bitconnect % rate of interest (vertical axis) vs. Bitcoin price changes (horizontal axis) and as you can see in the chart below, the two have a parabolic behavior:
This means, the more Bitcoin gains or loses in price, the more money you make on your investment through Bitconnect. Therefore, in the case of Bitcoin price depreciation, you can think of Bitconnect as a hedging instrument.
The BCC rate of interest seems to correlate to Bitcoin price changes of the prior 2 days. For example, today's rate of interest (July 23nd) depends on the price fluctuations between July 21st and 22nd.
Data Source: (01/01/2017 - 07/22/2017)
https://bitconnect.co/learning-center/bitconnect-bitcoin-price-volatility-software#
https://Blockchian.info
If you found the material useful please upvote.
Also please make sure to check out the same analysis on more data points in here:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@ka82/bitconnect-investment-part-ii
This guy has his own trading bot on Bittrex and it's a bot online called "GUNBOT" I have not done anything with this, but am following him to see his progress. He is attempting to beat the Bitconnect payouts daily using this bot.
I will be following his progress and my try my own bot in the near future. The volatility is the key.....
Thanks for comment...that's what I also realized about bitconnect that how they can distribute the BCH among their customers while the could just ignore us. But that was something.
I don't think the Bitconnect Bot doing anything more difficult than what HFT companies do, except that the HFTs are working on a way less volatile market.
Good analysis, great graph.
I still think it's going to turn out to be basically MLM, but your thesis of these gains being at least credibly possible is well-taken.
I don't doubt their individual gains (I'm doing almost as well), but I don't think this will be sustained, and when returns dip, I do not think they will have capital reserves to survive.
Anyone can win betting on black when it keeps coming up black.
Thank you for reading and the feedback.
That's also a scenario I'm thinking about that what would happen if BCC/BTC prices fall dramatically. I think eventually future will tell us the truth behind it!
Keep writing! This was a good piece and you approached it 100% factually, no bias at all.
It's the best piece I've seen showing how Bitconnect's gains, so far, could be mathematically legit.
Ps - You may know this already, but you could have used a much snappier title. This made it look like you might have been pushing Bitconnect as an investment or for referrals, which you aren't.
It's too late to edit, but a title like:
"Bitconnect Payouts Graphed Against Bitcoin Volatility - Can Bitconnect's Trading Be Legitimate?" (or "Can Bitconnect's gains continue indefinitely?")
...that title might have caught more eyes.
Thanks:)
I agree, I could've thought on a better title...I will probably re-publish it with some extra findings and a new title as you suggested above. (so far it has been my most popular post so it may be worth re-posting).
Might be worth remastering after they are up and running again for a month of payouts or so.
What do you think about this:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@ka82/can-bitconnect-s-trading-be-legitimate-sustainable
Will check it out and reply there.
Bitconnect is likely a ponzi scheme, and, about to implode like BitPetite, USI Tech and so many others. If you have any investment in it, I suggest you get out as much of it as you can. Clif High of http://halfpasthuman.com has predicted Bitconnect will implode this month. I already took out as much as I could. I'm down a few hundred, but fortunately, not more. There are plenty of articles showing all the outnesses. I urge you research that and get your investment out.
Thanks for the heads-up...I'm actually intending to take out my principal this week!
Clif said it might fall on December 8th. I would get it out before then, if at all possible. I've been drawing it out every week! Good luck!
Too bad I missed this post @ka82
Great post @ka82, I saw your response to @craig-grant in the other thread about this article of yours.
Your analysis makes sense to me. My main concern however is whether or not the average interest rates that BCC provides are sustainable over the long term (assuming that BCC token value stays the same).
I'll give you a vote with 100% of my voting power if you write an article with some statistics which prove how BCC could be sustainable long term and tip you 2 Steem too if it's REALLY good ;)
Steem on @ka82!
Thanks for your feedback...I was actually thinking about it and IMO bitconnect rates seems to correlate with 2 factors: Bitcoin price volatility, and number of people investing in it.
Since BTC volatility has been/is decreasing over time as a result bitconnect rate will also decrease over time. In terms of number of people who join this investment, I believe there's negative parabolic behavior between BCC rate and number of people investing. Not sure if we have reached the peak of it (or when we reach) but in the long run both factors contribute to a smaller & smaller rate of return from BCC (one linearly and one exponentially).
Having said all this, I will do more research on it and will let you know :)
That's a great conclusion and I'd be curious to read that blog post. Let me rephrase my question:
Can BCC maintain their current interest rate assuming that following variables remain unchanged:
BTC price volatility
BCC token price
Furthermore, how necessary is it for BCC to continue getting more people to buy the tokens in order for them to guarantee an interest rate. Note that if the variable of people buying BCC is very highly correlated to the rate of interest they can provide their users, this will likely be a long term scam (i.e. you could make money within 3-6 months but might lose it all in 9 months).
Short answer to your first question: Yes, if we assume the 2 variables remain the same.
I'm doubtful and will not invest money there until I see someone who can make a solid case that it is indeed sustainable over the long term. I spent about an hour reading through Reddit/FB/Steemit content regarding how legit BCC was, and most say the same thing - might work not but long term it's not remotely sustainable unless more and more money is continually pumping into BCC token, making the whole thing one huge ponzi scheme.
I may be wrong, but I'll have to be proven wrong until I change my mind about that.
Either way I hope for you that I'm wrong and that you make a bunch of money staking your crypto there for interest.
Yea I totally understand. I won't want to invest in something unsustainable.
I'm thinking out loud but think about the paper money we use. It's a "claim on wealth" which you don't have. The only wealth people have is the "goods" they have in their possessions. Now think about the BCC. BCC is a receipt you're given in exchange for your BTC. The difference between paper money and BCC is that BCC is capped at 28M coins while paper money is unlimited!
I was wary about this initially, but because there are so many crypto currencies being exchanged, it’s going to be easy to find volatility if they break out to other currencies.
BitConnect may well be the catalyst for super inflation of fiat currencies and a real push towards crypto dominance in everyday living.
My main concern is, if the bot is so amazing, why don’t they seed it with a few million bucks and let it run for a year - then buy a diamond studded island with a few billion.
Right now, if it runs until January, I’ve got my seed back, and quadruple it’s value still investing.
Provided fiat doesn’t collapse (we all know crypto is the future at some point) then I should be able to buy a house and a Ferrari by end of 2018.
It’s got real potential to be attractive to almost everyone, so I don’t see investors backing away any time soon.
1%/day is unheard of for a legit business to offer, but I think that’s because we’ve been lead to believe it.
If I gave you $100 it wouldn’t be unheard of for you to give me $101 tomorrow. I’m a complete novice trader, but up 40% in a month with crypto, meanwhile my share portfolio managed by experts made a staggering 8% after 3 consecutive years of loss.
A lot to think about really. It’s an exciting time to be alive.
Exactly, the same algorithm should be easily applied to other crypto-currencies.
That's precisely what it came to my mind the first time came across Bitconnect. I think it basically steal the value of paper money and adds it to Bitcoin and other crypos.
My main concern is more of this (https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@ka82/can-anyone-share-his-her-thoughts-on-this) than what you raised above. But I think the whole purpose of cryptos is to engage everyone rather than make things exclusive for only a privileged few.
@blockchainttmft - I expanded a bit on my reply below and linked to the analysis posts by @ka82
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@softgrip/the-future-of-crypto-and-fiat
It definitely is sustainable for the near future, but I'm just not sure if it will be BitConnect or something similar that is the final straw on the camels back that breaks fiat wealth.
Something will. We just don't 100% know what it is.
Your concern seems unreasonable. You are asking for a predictive model of bitcoin's volatility because it sustainability relies on the volatility of bitcoin. If you believe Bitcoin to be here to stay and that its price action will swing based on increasing/decreasing demand, then that alone should be proof enough on BCC sustainability.
Great post. Please read my biggest danger in crypto, would love your feedback -
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptocoinclub/blockfolio-addiction-help-group
check this post if you interested in whisky investment:
https://steemit.com/investment/@ka82/online-whisky-investment
Hi all,
I just got into Bitconnect a few weeks ago. I was skeptical. I still am. But I'm making real money that I'm using to buy real things with. So as long as they keep paying, I'll keep using it. If you want to get in on this too, first I would suggest you educate yourself on the risks and rewards. If you still want to get in and make more than 1% a day, please use my referral link below to join my team. The daily loan interest is a good chunk of the money you make. The team building through referrals is a bigger part. Do me a solid and join my team!
https://bitconnect.co/?ref=bmneveu
Nice piece of research here! :) Good work, thanks for the intel.
Glad it was useful...thanks for reading:)
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Looking at it as if in a casino. Don't risk (or loan) what you can't afford to LOSE.