Cryptocurrency TA & Some Thoughts - 17.03.19

in #cryptocurrency5 years ago (edited)

Hello there,

I'm just posting my current analysis of the markets, mostly to write it down for friends and for myself.
I might extend this when there is the need, time & actions todo so.
This is not accurate and no financal advice, just my observations and thoughts about the market.

The Market itself has already matured alot and price swings like seen in 2017 and before, are not happening anymore that often.
We see similar actions like in the stocks market with daily price swings of about 1-2% or less sometimes.
So currently day-trading seems like a difficult job, but it's still managable by building positions, leveraging and trying to predict market maker action, timing and spotting good coins.
Playing with leverage is only recommended if you have the finances (and the right mind) for it, it can lead quick to high losses, but also profits , if done right.

I will use the Weekly timeframe , higher timeframes are more accurate and can show a more accurate outlook of the future.

btc-17.03-19.png

We currently can see in this Picture that we are doing a double bottom Pattern with a Breakout of about 4200$ and a price target of around 5000$.
Weekly MACD had a positive crossover at around the 11. february 2019 already , and since then we have seen only green in the weekly.
The Relative Strength Index came out of overbought and is still at a very low level for this kind of asset.
The On Balance Volume , atleast for the bitstamp exchange, is slightly increasing, but not showing much action currently.
General Volume, atleast for Bitstamp, and if I remember correct also for other exchanges is very low at the moment, there might be many Over the Counter Trades with Heavy BTC Volume, or generally just low interest in buying Bitcoin.
My idea currently would be to wait for the breakout and see afterwards how the indicators and price reacts to hold the position/ extend it or cut the looses.
The Pattern still can fail or lead to a fakeout, in this case a tight stop with around - 100$/200$(or your needed risk ratio) to the buy price would be a good option to cut possible heavy losses.
All in all, I think we already were with the price under 3800$ in a good spot to buy and hold for a good period of time, the retest of old levels with a price target of around 5500-5700$ is still in play and could happen in the next time.

eth-17.03-19.png

Ethereum looks pretty similar to bitcoin.
The difference is , the MACD already did a positive crossover at around the 17. December 2018
Breakout for the double bottom Pattern is at around 166$ , with a target price of around 237$.
Possible Retest targets are at 275$ and 356$

eth-btc-17.03-19.png

As ETH is still a little bit coupled because of the ETH/BTC trading, the to BTC chart looks quite nice , it bounced on an important level and from there on headed upwards, but for the low/medium term timeframe we can see a double top pattern forming, which could lead to surpressing ethereums price breakout when btc moves.
The Double Top pattern on the ETH / BTC is having a breakout target of around 0.03btc with a price target of around 0.02 btc, this would crush the level we were previously holding of around 0.024 and could lead to further decline, but for me this is looking like a possible pattern failure at the moment.

ltc-17.03-19.png

Litecoin already broke out of its double bottom pattern, breakout point at around 41§, with a target of 52$ and is currently extending its gains with a current price of around 60$.
Possible retest levels are at 78$ and 108$
ltc/btc is looking very strong, but also has alot downside potential as we are reaching overbought levels on the rsi.

The general volume on many altcoins looks pretty promising , but only on bitcoin not that good.
With declines of nearly 100% on some coins, there are some good opportunities to gain some good percent on the one or the other coin.

Coins on my (main) watch list :

btc,eth,dash,ltc,aby,ada,adx,aeon,ardr,ark,bat,bcn,doge,emc2,eos,etc,game,gno,gnt,grc,iota,lsk,mona,music,nav,neo,nxs,nxt,ok,omg,pay,pivx,ptoy,qrl,qtum,rdd,rep,salt,sbd,sc,steem,storj,sys,ubq,vtc,wave,xdn,xel,xlm,xmr,xrp,xvg,zec

While some of these have brought out good updates and advanced with the time, others still have no real projects/wallets to use. So this list is not 100% accurate, but I'm sure some will also rise with the next upside of BTC , especially things that are generally in the favor of people that join the Cryptocurrency Space , for example coins like Dogecoin or Stellar Lumens showed pretty good strength on positive market cycles.

My Favourite Coin : I prefer Ethereum over Bitcoin to do daily transactions, it's faster , and that's the most important point I want for the payment method of the future.

I appreciate tips & donations
Bitcoin : 1Fr71J7FbxAMaaixtVCjnywJWDgZKUUDsD
Ethereum : 0x80130d1bb3454a00A60C4B5a581F11B3AC29E60E

This post may get further Edits/Updates/Extras, as this is my first Post on the Steemit Plattform and I'm still figuring out stuff.

Greets Michael

Update - 02.04.2019

bitcoin target #1 reached, good volume, but not that heavy, but really good price action.
It's now time to hold and see what the week will bring, if we keep going with increasing volume, we might need to increase the position on btc.
altcoins look great, many with good volume.
ethereum at breakout point, but as in the post mentioned got surpressed by the eth / btc chart, the double top pattern on the eth / btc sadly looks now like it's going to happen, but no breakout so far.
eth so far still ok to hold, but with tight stopp loss now
dash got fat fingered yesterday on bitfinex up to 185$ , with it's current price at 120$ , it's a quite good buy, but risky as dash isn't that big of a mover.
litecoin is going for the first retest level of 78$, as the ltc / btc chart is correcting now and the overbought rsi gets cleared

some coins that also done extremly well and look promising:
bnb - reaching nearly all time highs (25$), currently sitting at 20$ , can imagine that we overshoot the all time high, but daily and weekly rsi oversold, so very high risk
bitcoin cash - currently at an important resistence and there is still a 50% gap, from 275$ to 420$, from the last hard fork that happened which could be filled any time on a market upswing
bat - reaching his first resistence, but already 100-200% increased from the downside, very interesting project also, might bubble this year if they get it released and volume comes
doge - doing his first moves, chart looks interesting, volume very low
many other altcoins look also very interesting, there's a slight upwards trend in lots of them. just volume is missing on some, while others already had really good volume and are just moving very slow, good chances right now

i could imagine now we go sideways for some time, whales might want to see how the market reacts on this price movement, will the people join the ride or still wait? some altcoins might go up meanwhile

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Wow, I am impressed that is some high quality post, Michael. Thanks for sharing your insights with the Steem community.

I personally think we'll have an interesting week coming up.

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