Cryptocurrency TA & Some Thoughts - 11.04.19

in #cryptocurrency5 years ago

Hello there,

this is a follow up post of the last analysis >

This is not accurate and no financal advice, just my observations and thoughts about the market

Follow up of the last analysis and summary:

The price target of 5000$ was hit on bitcoin, we also hit the first line of resistence and the previous retest level I mentioned of 5500 in a short wick upwards.
Ethereum got stuck on an old resistence of around 190$ and did not hit my target of around 237$ , but as mentioned got surpressed also directly in the btc upthrust by the eth / btc pair going down in almost the same moment.
The ETH / BTC did not break out of its double top pattern still, but is still going sidewards and keeping all doors open.
Litecoin was a very big mover and did rise over the previous mentioned retest level of 78$ and was nearly reaching the 2nd retest level of 108$ , but got declined at almost exactly 100$.
LTC/BTC did extend it's gains and therefor was accelerating the rally of the ltc / usd pair .

The Volume in Bitcoin itself looks solid, but not extraordinary , buy volume is more than sell volume still, so this is ok so far.
Ethereum's Volume was also solid, but there was alot sell volume coming already.
Litecoin's volume is really good and looks very stable, we reached almost a quarter of the december 2017 volumes in buys, sells are coming, but they are still ok and the buys overweighted them so far.
As already mentioned in the previous analysis , the volume on some altcoins looks very promising, for example Dash had a really good buy volume coming in , but is also getting some heavy sells on some exchanges, but still the buy volume was pretty decent.
Bitcoin cash did a fast step into the Gap Filler which I mentioned in the previous post , as soon as it entered the gap, it quickly rushed +100$ , volume was good, it did not reach the target of around 380$ , but with just -30$ difference it came pretty close.
BAT did not get the volume needed for a breakout and stopped at his resistence, just sell volume so far coming.
BNB was not able to extend its gains further and did a double top pattern on the daily frame of the bnb/btc chart , which I did not lookup in the previous post , so it broke down almost exactly at my last update(sorry :) )
Doge did a good job and was doing what it does most times on positive cycles, going higher , volume was ok but nothing special.

What's next?

There is currently not enough data here to give targets, so this is only speculation and could go in both ways...
As there was a double bottom pattern breakout in the major coins, we could see now a retest of the breakout level of around 4.2k at bitcoin, but before this happens there might has first to come big sell volume/price action.
The retest on ethereum is already happening at the moment, as ethereum in general did not do that big of a move after it's breakout.
I could see here also a bear flag forming in general with ethereum, we have to keep in mind that ethereum is still build inflationary at the moment and has over 100million coins in circulation, which could make it over priced at it's general price.
Litecoin might not retest directly the breakout, but rather it's last support level of around 60-70$.
The LTC/BTC chart is heading downwards, with RSI beeing oversold and now correcting, this could lead to a high downward pressure, but also make place for another upcoming rally.
The On Balance Volume is generally increasing on some exchanges, and what's worth nothing , it's increasing big on coinbase so far for bitcoin, for example one year past from now we had volumes of around 100 btc bought on coinbase when there were 1-5k bought on bitfinex, today with same volume on bitfinex we have almost around 1k already on coinbase, so there seems to be a general rise in users or liquidity on coinbase.
On Balance Volume for Litecoin looks amazing, it has reached on some exchanges december 2017 levels ,on others almost them and some are even higher.
RSI on all major coins was on the daily chart oversold so a correction was needed, but there is still place to go higher on the weekly timeframe.

I will mention here the futures also, especially the new Contract Futures of major stock exchanges seems to correlate with the Bitcoin Price.
Bitcoin Futures on CME look quite nice so far, higher buy volume than ever, but on the other day highest sell volume than ever also, but in general the weekly still showed green.
Bitfinex Short/Long Ratio looks quite boring, nothing special here after this rally.
But Ethereum Short/Long Ratio looks very interesting, Ethereum Longs on an all-time-high , peaking this week with Shorts beeing last week at his all-time-low.

What's also worth noting down :

Coinmarketcap currently shows a 24H Volume of $61.302.895.832 and was peaking at around $ while the rally was going , which would mean we are way over the december 2017 bubble levels , were it just reached around $, but most volume comes from altcoins, with bitcoin only having a percentage of around a third of it.
After doing some research I was only able to find that the most volume comes from Stable Coins like USDT/USDC and especially PAX, which could be some stuff for debate and questionable but in general it should be seen as a good sign of interest in the market, if the numbers are correct.

In general it's a quite interesting time currently and there are lots of opportunities to gain good percent on many coins!

If there is time, action, the data and the need write a follow up / new analysis I would post another one.

Greets Michael


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