It's time to check in with the macro market again to see what's happening

Regular Bit Brainers will know that I like to predict market movements, though not in the short-term (like the 50/50 guessers and their Elliott Waves). This post is my latest update of what I expect the crypto market to do in the next few months. I'll try to keep it visual in nature, I always like people to be able to "see" what I am thinking.

Hop aboard the Bit Brain Time Machine and we'll see what's in store for us.

From Wikimedia Commons

The Future: Crypto - the next few months

Being a "prediction" post, it goes without saying that this is all just best guess. Don't mortgage your house just because of what you see here, or if you do and things go pear-shaped, then don't blame me. Conversely, if you mortgage your house and make a fortune from this info, I'll be happy to supply you with an ETH address for donations!

The status quo

The latter half of this week has shown some of the most positive price movement in well over a month. This is not unexpected. If you followed my posts about the pullback throughout the last month, then you should have known that this was coming. It should be said that I'm not entirely sure that that could be classed as a "pullback". It may just be a wave in the cycle of a tapering triangle - a triangle we should soon break free from (as we shall see later). This is the market now.

Which way will the market move next? In the guessing game of crypto we have a 33.3% chance of guessing this correctly, since the market can only go one of three ways: Down, Sideways or Upwards. I will now try to put a little more certainty to that guess and give at least some shape to those future chart lines. My readers will also know that I prefer vague TA to precise TA. I'd rather predict a market turn within say, a $20 bn bracket, than say "BTC will find support at $8257.32 at the end of the third wave" - because that's just nonsense, whether the TA nuts will admit it or not. (There's nothing wrong with TA, just know its limitations: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrencies/@bitbrain/your-ta-sucks-and-so-does-his-and-hers-and-that-pro-guy-s)

To the future!

Looking at the logarithmic charts (which are invariably more useful than linear ones for long term work), the recent pullback seems to share the same characteristics with two similar events in Q3 of 2017. If that is indeed the case, then we can expect a small price dip after the initial post-pullback rise, as shown in the highlighted areas of the chart below.

However, our recent pullback did not have such a steep dip at the end, nor did it have a steep recovery. I expect that the little "bumps" after the last two recoveries were actually just little corrections to overcompensation after the pullbacks ended. Because we have not had a sharp dip and sharp recovery this time, we should not get such a large "bump". In summary, I expect the next market move to be a small bump followed by a long and powerful climb to new ATH levels. This is depicted by the blue line in the next chart.

The Blue Line

The blue line represents my best guess of the market movement for the next few months. The other two lines represent alternative possible scenarios:

The Green Line

This is the movement of the market if there is no "bump". I expect this oversold and over-FUDded market to recover strongly, much like the blue line, but without the uncertainty and corrections at the beginning.

The Pink Line

This is the movement of a triangular wave system as the waves decrease in amplitude. While it could be interpreted as a very large bull pennant, it is often difficult to say which way a break will occur after such a movement.

Combination

Blue line with a little bump or not, we are in a triangle pattern. This is very evident on the BTC charts too, and as BTC is usually an excellent barometer for the crypto market in general, we can safely use the BTC graph too, to make further analytical predictions.

While some may argue with my methods, all TA is only interpretation. By treating the ATH levels as outliers and therefore excluding them, I get a rather neat post-hype triangle as seen below:

Made with TradingView my @bitbrain

What is very significant about this triangle, is that we have reached the rule-of-thumb position (two thirds of the way) for a breakout from the triangle. Indications are that this may already be under way (that recent positive price movement I spoke about at the beginning of this post), having started exactly at the two thirds mark as it should. If that is indeed the case then the market should follow the green trajectory indicated, or at least something roughly similar to it. If the breakout does not occur, then expect some sort of pink line scenario from the previous chart, with an eventual break in an unknown direction.

I don't believe that the market will break out in a downwards correction. I would like to at least eradicate that 33.3% possibility from our pool of guesses. With the Fundamental Analysis of the crypto market space being so positive, I simply can't see it happening. Even if the market did drop, then the buyers (myself included) would have a field day and it would bounce back in no time! That would be worth mortgaging the house for... But with a general trendline like this, I consider that highly unlikely:

Conclusion

I think that the green numbers we are seeing at the moment are here to stay for a relatively long time. I hope that this is the start of the next big bull run, but we may be in for a little sideways movement first. This sideways movement may include a "bump", so don't be disappointed in prices drop again for about half a week in the near future. We have already endured a long correction period and a rock-solid consolidation period. I am as bullish as ever about the market, and I foresee a very positive outlook for the remainder of the year. (In a realistic way.)

Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain

• All charts are from https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ and are the Total Market Cap chart - unless otherwise stated. All modifications are by @bitbrain.

P.S.

An insane (but very cool) guy called John has decided to hop onto a bicycle and cycle over 20 000km from Hong Kong to France with his girlfriend! He has quit his job and sold everything to finance the start of the trip. A quote from his post:

you might think: "How on Earth are you going to finance this giant trip through more than 60 countries, John?!" Well, good question, I have absolutely no idea. If you have an idea, please do share it with me in the comment section.

John has a YouTube channel and he is a Steemian. Please visit him here: @bikeitjohn and consider following his blog, and/or donating to his PayPay or WeChat Pay accounts if you feel so inclined.

Go John and Mathilde! Good luck on your trip, Bit Brain will be cheering you on!

DISCLAIMER:
I am neither a financial advisor nor a professional trader/investor. This is not financial advice, investment advice or trading advice. Unless otherwise stated, all my posts are my opinion and nothing more. Crypto is highly volatile and you can easily lose everything in crypto. You invest at your own risk! Information I post may be erroneous or construed as being misleading. I will not be held responsible for anything which is incorrect, missing, out-of-date or fabricated. Any information you use is done so at your own risk. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and realise that you and you alone are responsible for your crypto portfolio and whatever happens to it.