Your TA sucks! And so does his, and hers, and that pro guy's...
Every day I see a lot of TA, some good, some bad
I see chart after chart, all criss-crossed with lines and colours and triangles and zig-zags.
I use it myself. I predict trends, look for an upcoming price change, check overbought/oversold coins, find good entry points etc.
Your TA sucks! And so does his, and hers, and that pro guy's...
...and even mine
Ease off on the TA guys!
TA is NOT the be all and end all of crypto markets! FAR too much value is placed on it, especially for short-term predictions.
It's pretty good in the long-term, but it's only a tool. As an analogy: it's very much like weather prediction; difficult to make predictions, buy it's easy to explain why something happened after the fact. Many TA guys, especially those using Elliott Waves, make statements like "BTC will rise on Wave C until Fibonacci level $8955.23". Would you believe the weatherman if he told you that it's going to start raining at 14:32 next Tuesday? If you do believe things like that then you're being a ....ing idiot!
TA does have a few powerful tools, some more reliable than others. Resistance and support levels do work, flat topped and bottomed ascending/descending triangles are almost certainties (other triangles - not so much!), teacups normally get it right, triple tops are semi-reliable, head and shoulders patterns work if you identify them correctly. But the more specific the prediction, the less the chance that it will happen. Many predictions are also highly open to interpretation - compare them; I'm right.
Fundamental Analysis is FAR more important. All you need for that is to take a good hard look at the fundamentals of the coin in question and of the markets. The broader you look, the better. I'm in crypto because fundamentally I believe that crypto is an emerging tech that is going to continue to rocket in value as it is adopted over the next couple of decades. I'm not here because I saw some lines drawn on a BTC chart!
Look realistically at coins and see if there is a market sector that requires that coin. See if the coin will have utility. Look what it's currently priced at and what market sentiment is like. Play long-term, forget the short-term, forget the TA.
Crypto is an emerging market and an emerging technology, it will rise. You can see that on fundamentals alone. I recommend you buy some good looking cheap coins and just hodl the hell out of them for a few years. Leave the TA for the stock markets, it's too risky to trade short-term in crypto anyway (you'll do well until you get wrecked).
Get a nice diverse crypto portfolio running, hold the coins you see have a strong future on fundamentals alone, and forget all these wannabe monkeys and their fake, over-hyped TA!
98% of the TA crowd will disagree with this post or think that it doesn't apply to them. 98% of the TA crowd are wrong
Don't take my word for it: test them. Check their predictions a week after the time, a month after the time etc.
Believe only the long-term guys or the general predictions e.g. "Eos is looking hyped and overbought and won't continue this climb much longer" or "ETH price movement is narrowing, expect a large breakout either up or down probably later today" (like this one: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/10-second-post).
Or believe the TA guys, it's no skin off my nose if you do, I'm just trying to help you.
FOOTNOTE: that bit at the top where I said my own TA sucks; you know I was kidding right? I am Bit Brain you know!
Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain
DISCLAIMER:
I am neither a financial advisor nor a professional trader/investor. This is not financial advice, investment advice or trading advice. Unless otherwise stated, all my posts are my opinion and nothing more. Crypto is highly volatile and you can easily lose everything in crypto. You invest at your own risk! Information I post may be erroneous or construed as being misleading. I will not be held responsible for anything which is incorrect, missing, out-of-date or fabricated. Any information you use is done so at your own risk. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and realise that you and you alone are responsible for your crypto portfolio and whatever happens to it.
I am absolutely with you.
But i gues it gives people the confidence they need for an investment, which means growth, which is good for everyone.
Ha ha! A case of "whatever you need to delude yourself so that you'll sleep at night". 😁
I think my own TA is pretty damn good... But it's proper TA, not the stupid chart shit posted on Steemit.
Yeah, I omitted the part where people who already know what I'm talking about can ignore it. That would have left a nasty gateway open that everyone would have immediately felt entitled to rush through.
This post is for the first 90% of the graph of the Dunning-Kruger Effect .
It's interesting you mentioned the Dunning-Kruger Effect in regards to crypto.
In the real world of financial trading, it takes a lot of effort to become a successful trader. From what we know most people take on average 4 years before they become profitable and less than 10% actually make it. Of those 10% half of them only break even so the success rate is more like 5%.
There's a general rule of competence, that it takes around 10,000 practices before one can truly be considered good at something. Whether that's 10k swings of a golf club, 10k hits of a baseball, 10k throws at a hoop or 10k trades, it's about the same level of experience necessary to succeed.
Now take your average crypto trader. Never traded in their life before. Watched a few YouTube videos to pick up the basics, and now everyone thinks they're a shit hot trader. Dunning-Kruger Effect indeed....
When I had a full time normal job and was trading as a hobby, it took me 16 years to become profitable. It was only after the first two years of trading full time for a living that I could make a regular enough profit to live on. That's the reality of trading, not watching a couple of YT videos, but spending years and years full time staring at charts and losing an awful lot of money before it 'clicked'.
Exactly! I didn't know those trader success figures, very interesting.
It really is an awful hard business, that's why I laugh at all the so called 'gurus' on here, they haven't got a clue.
It's also one of the only jobs in the world where if you have a bad month, not only don't you get paid but you actually get money taken off you. Not many jobs in the world where you can say that happens, most people in regular jobs get paid at the end of the month whether they worked hard or not.
In this game whether you fail or succeed is entirely down to you, there's no-one else to blame but yourself if you mess it all up.
All true.