A week ago I suggested the best coins to buy at the time

It was in this post (no need to read it, I supply the link merely for reference): https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/what-to-buy-in-crypto-right-now

The day after that I did a post on testing the accuracy of my previous predictions. Today I'm combining the two: I want to test my post of a week ago.

Note that it is still very early, much of the benefits of my suggestions should only be realised a month or three (or more for the large market cap coins) down the line, but I think it will be interesting to see how they have done so far.

Testing my predictions

It would be easy to say "coin xyz has gone up 10% in the last week" and take the credit for the rise, but that would be a false reading. The entire market climbed, I can't take the credit for that (though I have been predicting it from my very first post). What I will do is calculate the increase in total market cap i.e. the entire market over the last week, and then compare that figure to the performance of each coin I suggested. Where necessary I'll throw in a comment or two. At the end we can total them all up an see if my predictions are any better than just throwing darts at a dartboard.

I split the coins into high, medium and low market cap and also into "Best suggestions" and "Alternative suggestions". We'll work through the original order I presented them in.

Calculation of Total Market Cap change - the reference percentage:

I'm taking my snapshot now: 19:57 UTC/GMT

From coinmarketcap.com

$416 086 306 116 / $ 378 808 000 000 = 1.0984095

In other words the market increased by a total of about 9.84 % over the last week. I can now assign performance levels to my picks: (All coin percentages are taken from the 7 day percentages found on the page https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/)

• 8 - 12% = average
• 5 - 8 % = below average
• 12 - 15* = above average
• 0 - 5 % = poor
• 15 - 20% = good
• >0% = Bad pick!
• <20% = Great pick!
  I'm assigning these figures before I look at the individual coins to prevent any biases I may have. Let's see how I did...

Best suggestions

High market cap (more than $500 mil)

Neo (NEO) – -2.73% Bad Pick! Not a great start for me...

VeChain (VEN/VET) – 1.95% Poor. Let's hope this improves in the lower market caps!

Medium market cap ($50 mil to $500 mil)

UTrust (UTK) – -6.28% Bad pick!

THEKEY (TKY) – 19.32% Good. (At last!)

Enjin coin (ENJIN) – 9.66% Average.

Low market cap (less than $50 mil)

Car Vertical (CV) – 29.92% Great Pick!

CargoX (CXO) – 14.69% Above average.

InvestFeed (IFT) – -7.04% Bad pick!

MyWish (WISH) – 39.51% Great pick!

Loci coin (LOCI) – 29.13% Great pick!

Good alternative suggestions

High market cap

Ether (ETH) – 11.82% Average.

Tron (TRX) – 46.71% Great pick!

Bitcoin Gold (BTG) – 10.62% Average.

ZCash (ZEC) – 5.19% Below average.

OmiseGo (OMG) – 13.42% Above average.

Binance coin (BNB) – 18.46% Good.

Lisk (LSK) – -3.51 Bad pick!

Steem (STEEM) – 38.51% Great pick!

Medium market cap

Elastos (ELA) – -3.67% Bad pick!

ETHOS (ETHOS/BQX) – 11.31% Average.

PIVX (PIVX) – -2.85 Bad Pick!

TenX (PAY) – -5.09% Bad pick!

Substratum (SUB) – 4.77% Poor.

Metal (MTL) – 3.04% Poor.

Oyster Pearl (PRL) – -11.63% Bad pick! PRL is still suffering the effects of the post airdrop sell off. It's at a great buying price...

Walton (WTC) – 20.95% Great pick!

Envion (EVN) – -12.84% Bad pick!

Low market cap

Snovio (SNOV) – 21.60% Great pick!

Everex (EVX) – 8.03% Average.

Covesting (COV) – 32.05% Great pick!

Totals

Average % of all picks: 11.17% (1.33% better than the average)

Average % of best picks: 12.81% (2.97% better than the average)

Average % of high market cap picks: 14.04% (4.2% better than the average)

Average % of medium market cap picks: 2.22% (7.62% worse than the average)

Average % of low market cap picks: 20.99% (11.15% better than the average)

Number of "Bad picks": 9
Number of "Poor": 3
Number of "Below average": 1
Number of "Average": 5
Number of "Above average": 2
Number of "Good": 2
Number of "Great picks": 8

Over 25% in a week:
Tron (TRX) – 46.71%
MyWish (WISH) – 39.51%
Steem (STEEM) – 38.51%
Covesting (COV) – 32.05%
Car Vertical (CV) – 29.92%
Loci coin (LOCI) – 29.13%

Deductions:

Well that was interesting! I want to start by reiterating that this was too short a time period for this to be really meaningful. What I will try to do is to remember to come back after a month and redo this test. That should be far more indicative of my coin picking ability. Maybe after three months I'll do it again.

I was surprised to see how poorly I did at the medium market cap coins. I was expecting to do well with the small market cap ones, I put the most effort into choosing good ROI ones, whereas I pick my high market cap coins for long term growth. But the middle ones are a bit of an anomaly, they should have done better. I blame EVN for a lot of that. I am very disappointed by their lack of updates in April, I believe that is really annoying and hurting the EVN investors! Come on EVN! Pull up your PR socks! I am withdrawing my buy recommendation on EVN until they publish some decent updates wrt facts and figures or at least time-lines (many facts and figures depend on an audit, but they won't tell us when the audit is! 😡)

I seemed to pick many coins at the extremes and few in the middle. I deduce that this means I am a higher risk investor than most. I avoid the safe coins that perform in an average manner. My portfolio does seem to reflect this (you may remember from my first post that I am invested in all of these coins).

Overall I would say that my predictions are more random than I want them to be. I trust that this will even out over time and that my poorly performing coins will come through. Important: I am not changing any recommendations! I still believe in all of these coins! They should all still do well in the longer-term!. The exception is EVN which I will only start recommending again after they resume giving proper updates like they used to.

We'll look at this again. Until then, just a reminder: DYOR. Thoroughly.

Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain

DISCLAIMER:
I am neither a financial advisor nor a professional trader/investor. This is not financial advice, investment advice or trading advice. Unless otherwise stated, all my posts are my opinion and nothing more. Crypto is highly volatile and you can easily lose everything in crypto. You invest at your own risk! Information I post may be erroneous or construed as being misleading. I will not be held responsible for anything which is incorrect, missing, out-of-date or fabricated. Any information you use is done so at your own risk. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and realise that you and you alone are responsible for your crypto portfolio and whatever happens to it.