Diversification Case Study - $100 on each of top 100 a year ago
Things to Note
The data is sourced from Coinmarketcap.com using historical snapshots from 7/3/2016 and 7/2/2017.
Qora was by far the best bet, #89 on the 7/3/2016 rankings and that $100 each would now be worth $436,418.
Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance.
The over total is $546,237, though over 80% of that is Qora gains alone ($463,418).
The volume for Qora is 0.08 BTC ($206) in the past 24 hours, so even if you owned that amount of Qora, you'd only have one option to offload it (OpenLedger).
There were 6 coins that do not have enough volume to establish a current price, were delisted, or have gone away (DAO, SCOT, BILS, RBR, XCR, VOOT). These have been counted as -100% (worth $0), since they are now worthless/nonexistent.
Taking into account that there is no reasonable ability to sell Qora at this price at this time and that it is an outlier, I have also given Qora a -100% (worth $0) for a new total of $109,819, or basically 11x/1100% with the readily available information.
$100 USD on each of the Top 100 on 7/3/2016 would now be worth:
| Number | Coin | Symbol | $100 is Now Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bitcoin | BTC | 351.95 |
| 2 | Ethereum | ETH | 2246.59 |
| 3 | Ripple | XRP | 3786.13 |
| 4 | Litecoin | LTC | 855.876 |
| 5 | The DAO | DAO | 0 |
| 6 | NEM | XEM | 1416.78 |
| 7 | Dash | DASH | 2319.69 |
| 8 | MaidSafeCoin | MAID | 599.144 |
| 9 | DogeCoin | DOGE | 806.419 |
| 10 | Lisk | LISK | 743.637 |
| 11 | NXT | NXT | 600.566 |
| 12 | Monero | XMR | 2323.86 |
| 13 | DigixDAO | DGD | 768.594 |
| 14 | WAVES | WAVES | 2055.64 |
| 15 | Steem | STEEM | 746.691 |
| 16 | Synereo | AMP | 589.994 |
| 17 | Emercoin | EMC | 387.377 |
| 18 | Siacoin | SC | 1523.88 |
| 19 | Factom | FCT | 1556.83 |
| 20 | BitShares | BTS | 4484.07 |
| 21 | Stellar | XLM | 1198.15 |
| 22 | Peercoin | PPC | 529.021 |
| 23 | Bytecoin | BCN | 5560.98 |
| 24 | Counterparty | XCP | 454.508 |
| 25 | Tether | USDT | 102 |
| 26 | Namecoin | NMC | 578.586 |
| 27 | YBCoin | YBC | 403.646 |
| 28 | Storjcoin X | SJCX | 589.783 |
| 29 | Nautilus Coin | NAUT | 92.8187 |
| 30 | Agoras Tokens | AGRS | 495.594 |
| 31 | Decred | DCR | 1462.24 |
| 32 | VPNcoin | VPN | 301.834 |
| 33 | Syscoin | SYS | 1800.29 |
| 34 | GameCredits | GAME | 4956.26 |
| 35 | FedoraCoin | TIPS | 62.50 |
| 36 | ScotCoin | SCOT | 0 |
| 37 | Xaurum | XAU | 0.05494 |
| 38 | SolarCoin | SLR | 211.193 |
| 39 | RubyCoin | RBY | 408.039 |
| 40 | Feathercoin | FTC | 375.809 |
| 41 | Hitcoin | HTC | 23.7705 |
| 42 | Bluecoin | BLU | 26.4021 |
| 43 | Bitcrystals | BCY | 775.439 |
| 44 | Blackcoin | BLK | 1127.63 |
| 45 | BitcoinDark | BTCD | 3438.17 |
| 46 | Digibyte | DGB | 4407.80 |
| 47 | Gridcoin | GRC | 915.879 |
| 48 | Yocoin | YOC | 6.1329 |
| 49 | Earthcoin | EAC | 1166.18 |
| 50 | Voxels | VOX | 109.79 |
| 51 | ShadowCash | SDC | 259.527 |
| 52 | Monacoin | MONA | 1464.95 |
| 53 | Vericoin | VRC | 712.93 |
| 54 | Mintcoin | MINT | 157.746 |
| 55 | Rimbit | RBT | 9.83366 |
| 56 | Vcash | XVC | 294.096 |
| 57 | SuperNET | UNITY | 1270.33 |
| 58 | PrimeCoin | XPM | 629.374 |
| 59 | OMNI | OMNI | 1791.98 |
| 60 | AuroraCoin | AUR | 284.136 |
| 61 | Quark | QRK | 1316.62 |
| 62 | Clams | CLAM | 630.61 |
| 63 | ION | ION | 331.397 |
| 64 | Reddcoin | RDD | 3446.51 |
| 65 | I/Ocoin | IOC | 1424.84 |
| 66 | NovaCoin | NVC | 1118.97 |
| 67 | WorldCoin | WDC | 1506.27 |
| 68 | IX Coin | IXC | 163.177 |
| 69 | Expanse | EXP | 525.972 |
| 70 | Rise | RISE | 544.89 |
| 71 | BoostCoin | BOST | 524.417 |
| 72 | Radium | RADS | 1495.07 |
| 73 | Elcoin | EL | 17.7651 |
| 74 | Gulden | NLG | 3362.03 |
| 75 | Jinn | JINN | 875.354 |
| 76 | Vertcoin | VDN | 1751.66 |
| 77 | DigitalNote | XDN | 197.345 |
| 78 | Bilshares | BILS | 0 |
| 79 | StartCoin | START | 256.112 |
| 80 | NavCoin | NAV | 2720.61 |
| 81 | MegaCoin | MEC | 1272.74 |
| 82 | NuShares | NSR | 60.726 |
| 83 | Hempcoin | HMP | 21.3849 |
| 84 | Obits | OBITS | 2342.86 |
| 85 | Dnotes | NOTE | 1730.04 |
| 86 | Diamond | DMD | 703.62 |
| 87 | ZcCoin | ZCC | 976.814 |
| 88 | Infinite coin | IFC | 2200 |
| 89 | Qora | QORA | 0 |
| 90 | WildBeastBlock | WBB | 241.054 |
| 91 | UnionCoin | UNC | 0.06385 |
| 92 | Zeitcoin | ZEIT | 606.667 |
| 93 | Curecoin | CURE | 845.401 |
| 94 | Digitalcoin | DGC | 523.34 |
| 95 | Nexus | NIRO/NXS | 6998.98 |
| 96 | Global Currency Reserves | GCR | 899.861 |
| 97 | RibbitRewards | RBR | 0 |
| 98 | Crypti | XCR | 0 |
| 99 | Unobtanium | UNO | 1566.54 |
| 100 | VootCoin | VOOT | 0 |
| Total | $109,819 |
Summary
Many people have made better returns over the past year and in crypto, a year is an extremely long time. I generally consider my long term holds to be 2-6 months, midterm 2-8weeks, and short term to be up to 2 weeks, so a year is a particularly long time from my perspective. 1100% is profitable but it's on par with what many people expect in a quarter of that time period. I am impressed with Nexus (NXS) over the course of the year.
More about my trading strategies here:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@ashr/4-strategies-i-use-for-a-stronger-cryptocurrency-portfolio
Nice post! Wonder what it'll look like next year...
I think that the best performance will be in those that are truly scalable since there are so many scaling issues in need of resolution and those that won't need scaling because they're so single purpose focused.
Expanse, NEO (with dBFT), many single purpose tokens.
The same experiment but it has started this year. :)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@samotonakatoshi/will-the-investment-portfolio-of-the-top-100-cryptocurrencies-succeed-1st-part-2017924t131044708z
haha awesome post! Why didnt i buy some ETH back then =S !!
thanks for info.
Thanks, I think between my research for this post and my occasional visits to cryptoswim I will be saying variations of that sentence for a long time lol
Very impressive and extremely informative. If anything this is precisely the kind of article and information that justifies cryptocurrency investment to those unfamiliar with these virtual assets - especially when compared to the "traditional" stocks, bonds, realty...etc - This makes a great selling point for those still on that proverbial fence for investing in altcoins. Considering the increasing popularity it is entirely possible to go long on some the new coins using this same strategy and viewing the results in July 2018. It would make an interesting follow up for your future article. Perhaps even a series, done every year, 6 months, 3 months...etc - specifically using these top coins and $100 spread.
Thanks, I'm glad you found it valuable. I am actually working on the other direction first, seeing how far the trend holds in reverse and then using that to make some predictions going forward :)
Oh man :( , such lost opportunity.
Do you think this kinda thing will happen again say next year?
Great post by the way
Thanks, it may, it may not. I don't own a crystal ball, unfortunately.
Thanks for putting these numbers together. Interesting to compare an index investment with active trading gains - most people would be quite pleased with 1100% annually.
I think they would, yes, particularly in comparison to aggressive returns on the stock market being 12-15%.
Thanks for the nice study, I wonder how the results will be a year from now, with all the new ICO's popping up here and there we might see less returns on top 100 market cap coins.
Btw followed, upvoted and resteemed
Thanks, I am working on analyzing more information. Based on previous performance, I should have some predictions in a week or two (have to set up some models and gather more data).
Looking forward to it
Followed, resteemed, and checking back for those predictions. I don't know where I'm going to find 10k, but I really want to try this for the coming year.
Percents are percents, they work on small numbers as well as large. It's important to remember that just because this worked in the past year, doesnt mean it will this year.
It's also important to note that from looking at other data, the 3 month method might be more lucrative than the 1 year method.
@ashr I'm curious about the data you have for a 3 month method. While I would love the ability to make 1100% gains in 3 months vs 1 year, I wonder how much more active one would need to be using the 3 month system? There is also the issue of taxes whereas the 1 year method allows for capitol gains only.
Even with the year system, what criteria does one use to exit certain coins and put new ones in?
Whether they fell out of the top 100 or not, rebalancing to the current top 100. You have impeccable timing, I'm posting 1 month and 3 month data tomorrow. Waiting on a graphic :)
Great. Looking forward to it.
that is great
Technically The DAO was quite profitable - all ETH plus some ETC returned. Many DAO investors expected to get their ETH back, although they also nearly lost it all. On balance, a nil score seems fair, and I'm boring myself.
lol I weighed that one out and decided that getting into the ETH/ETC saga was too much for this post and to keep it straightforward, "if you had walked away one year ago, where would you be".
Great post!
Thanks! I'm glad you enjoyed it!
In one year a $10,000 investment gets you $109,819 Very impressive!
Yep, not bad by any measure :)
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