6 Weeks after Consensus 2018 - Do we see a first recovery of the crypto market?
Dear Steemit friends,
in my article over a month ago i made a prediction based on data of a Coincierge article. I was very sceptic that we would see the numbers of the past because we are now back to reality after the December 17 hype. Let's look what happened since then:
My simple mathematical sequence resulted in a Bitcoin price of $26,104 and if we look today we see
a much much smaller price, to be more precise -76% from the predicted numbers. This confirms my assumption and now i'm excited to see what will happen after the next 6 weeks. In the prediction we should have $40,084 and i'm still very sceptic that we are even near these staggering numbers but time will tell.
People like patterns
We like mathematical sequences, patterns which lead with high probability or 100% certainty to a result which we want.. wishful thinking yes! Crypto markets are highly driven by emotions and there is even now at a price level of $6,000 for the Bitcoin a possibility that we see these numbers but very unlikely in my eyes. But if someone paints a convincing picture which shows such numbers for the near future many would be happy or this would create some fresh hope. Reality always hits hard if we cannot hide anymore or run around and in these days we see the reality of a amazing rallye months ago. We cannot longer brush the reality aside that the parabolic rise is over for at least now and the near future.
Still staggering levels
However, to tell you the truth.. especially to people who are not long enough in the space we are still on high levels for market cap overall and price for the Bitcoin. If you look back to January 2017 you see the current price of Bitcoin is still 6x higher than at this time:
source: coinmarketcap.com
That are still staggering numbers of growth! People who invested in the hype or boom phase are now desillusioned or panicked, sold all their assets.. coins with a loss. Others took some profits because they smelled the nonsense already in the beginning and preparing now for reinvesting. After such phase the interest of the public is way lower than before if we look at Google Trends it's obvious that people now think about other things like Bitcoin or maybe hate to talk about at all.
Lack of interest doesn't mean it's over!
source: Google Trends
With the decreasing interest in these topics also the price falls further. It seems both are directly tied together. It seems there is no reasonable investment strategy behind but that is a deceiving picture in my eyes.. because we have still much higher levels than ever before! There are smart people, investors who still holding their coins but the timeframe matters. If you look just the last half year you could be completely depressed. A technical analysis could say we break all support levels right down to the gutter.. without any emergency brake and the end of the world is near.. but if you look back further you know that's the wrong picture. These cycles are not new and people who are in since 2011 or 2013 exactly know what i mean.
We had a new distribution of wealth and now there is still much money in the market (relative to crypto) and others wait with cash on the sidelines. We saw the news about institutions who are preparing their trading desks and financial products like Goldman Sachs and it's clear that's just a matter of time til the market gets pumped again with much higher amounts of fresh fiat money but patience is now the game. We should always remember.. the game is not over until we sell our coins.. with a loss.
Sold your coins or still hodl for the next crypto boom?
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Exciting times ahead steemit friends!
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I also think we can see lower lows as well...But I have the feeling in my guts that the people remaining in the market are compromised HODLERS which are not going to sell their cryptos easily... Specially the people who enter in crypto before mid-2017... This people will remain...of course people who enter in october/november have sold in panic. They didn't have the time to understand the technology and base their investment on that rationale and not in the profit in short-time.
As you said...it is a question of time...
Steem on!
I started in May 2017 with intensive learning phase and experienced the hype cycle which was like a contagious fever for even the coolest. I know i was a bit late but also read about the other hype cycles to get a better understanding what happened recently and get the long term view which is now very helpful to stay patient and just watch the the slump to take advantage from. Thank you for your comment!
Great to see your predictions and the percentage of dip is approximately near and it showcase that you read market really effectively and that's called the real prediction which comes close to actual numbers, so i want to appreciate you for that.
Literally speaking i wanted to buy Bitcoin but i am not an Investor so i am just holding and powering up Steem but i am playing the role of Hodler and will continue because these are just normal behaviour of the markets because some days it will be up and some days it will be down, it will be speculated to create weak hands but the most important aspect is, we have to continue.
So, i am waiting for the future journey of dust or moon and I've put day and night efforts on Steemit and came across this way and these conditions will not shake my foundations nor i will stop my work.
Let's hope for the best and wishing you an great day and stay blessed. 🙂
As you can see i'm also very optimistic on Steem because we see a real use case. Many agree with Steemit, it just works since inception and that is just 2 years ago. The Steem blockchain is much more than Steemit like SMT (Smart Media Token) concept shows and currently we have contagious Steem Monsters fever! 😁 The Steem blockchain is one of the most used blockchains driven by a active community of developer and users. I see exciting times for Steem and Bitcoin.
Yes, in my opinion also we will going to enter into exciting times soon. 🙂
Understanding how the crypto market works is very vital when making investment decisions, most panic sellers are those that enter the market because of their greed to make fast profits from the sudden rise in prices of crypto currencies and they are short term investors amd forecasters . But those that are still in the market are those investors understand the market better and are holding on their portfolio for the long term. Because there is certainly going to be a major boom I'm crypto price again sooner @onetin84
it's almost inevitable that we see the next wave. If we could draw a balanced chart graph it would go always up without any hickup but inefficient markets (as always) create reality and winners and losers. Yes i completely agree with you. It doesn't matter if you look at Blockfolio on a daily basis, checking the prices on coinmarketcap.com or follow the news. A simple strategy could be just going to bed and shut the blinds with a well diversified crypto portfolio. The latter is crucial what eggs are in your basket and currently we see clear leaders by market cap but also many interesting startups with a chance to gain market shares in the future. I don't name them here, because it's always a biased view, but it could be a good diversification in my point of view.
the support level are not working at all the FUD this time has taken over the market this is very discouraging time but will be good for long term
For people who just starting it's a good time now in my eyes. That's the beauty of crypto there is always a entry level through high volatility!
well looking to get into the steem more but that fear of going still down persist somewhere
I think wthe cryptospace developed a lot since the last years. I just joined at the start of 2018, but i have the feeling that a lot of governments, big companies and important individuals are highly interested in Blockchaintechnologie/Cryptocurrency.
I think the whole space was a bit overhyped in at the start of the year, because the technologie is not far enough to show it´s full potential. I think we will see a lot of adoption when second layer solutions like TenX start working fluently or when OmiseGo start working.
Then we will see a raise of interst and raising prices again, but i think we have to wait for that
Yes, i agree there was a lot of FOMO (fear of missing out) last year but we see a much higher valuation even now in the so called bear market (not crypto winter). There was a interesting interview with Andreas Antonopoulos long time ago and he talked about the natural hype cycles. If it's true we see at least two more in the next years ahead.
Andreas Antonopoulos - The Death of Money - PART 1/2 | London Real video by London Real
I'm with TenX since the token sale. They had a hard time recently but i think good chances to get some market share. OmiseGo i don't know at all but if you have a article about i'm curious to read about. Thank you!