Consensus 2018 - possible effects on Bitcoin price - $40,000?
Hello Steemit friends,
Consensus 2018 is over and many are disappointed by the current market movements. But if we look back it is normal and natural that during the event and also days and weeks after almost nothing happened. An interesting article by Coincierge reveals the historic events. I took the data and visualized in a bit different way with a prediction scenario for the Bitcoin price.
chart based on data from Coincierge and own prediction
If you look at the chart you see historical price movements and on the right side my prediction based on a simple mathematical sequence and historic values. Please don't see that as fact or for sure. Myself don't even believe such quick movements in 6 or 12 weeks after Consensus 2018! I'm on the sceptical side, maybe we sliding further around the $10,000 or maybe reaching the $20,000 in best case, but the calculated $40,000 is for me a very unlikely scenario in 12 weeks. Nothing is impossible but i don't believe in it.
The Consensus Development and Prediction
| Consensus Development | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Participants | 400 | 1400 | 2700 | 8500 |
| Speakers | 49 | 125 | 200 | 250+ |
| Ticket Price | $1016 | $1699 | $2699 | $2000 |
| Bitcoin Price (last event day) | $238,34 | $449,96 | $994,41 | $8.308,50 |
| Bitcoin Price (6 weeks later) | $278,26 | $744,09 | $2.512,66 | $26.104,85² |
| Bitcoin Price (12 weeks later) | $415,34 | $574,44 | $4.147,26 | $40.084,82² |
²prediction by author based on simple mathematical sequence
We like patterns and it seems that could be a possible scenario at first glance. Consensus 2018 exploded this year with more than 3 times more of participants, far more speakers (no exact number in the table above) and possible reduced ticket price. If you look back to the statement from Nov 2017 by Michael Novogratz:
"Bitcoin could 'easily' reach $40,000 by the end of 2018"
But with my prediction we would see the $40,000 already in mid August 2018 which is in my point of view far too high.
Strong Critics
This year Consensus was also recognized as something like a crypto party than a serious blockchain event. Lambos, buzzwords were all around and people like the core dev of Bitcoin Jimmy Song had strong words for that:
"I don’t see anything other than buzzwords."
I'm also on a more sceptical side but say also we need such events to show the world what's behind cryptocurrency and blockchain! I saw the presentation by Pundi X and that was a solid pitch for their product and mission. I saw no buzzwords, just a solid presentation and great marketing work.
Proyecto Pundi X Consensus 2018 Live! - video by Kryptolandia
Sure every company wanna market their products, even it's just a whitepaper currently and many will die in the coming years. But i think a bunch of them which also attended at the Consensus will survive and thrive. There is nothing wrong with that. The Lambo indeed has grown to something like a stupid stereotype or cliche and i ask the question who wants a uncomfortable seating, spartanic interior, permanent maintenance and infernal noise all day 😁 .. hmm, for some days a year that would be nice, sure!
What do you think, what is the aftermath for the Bitcoin because of the Consensus 2018?
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ich habe das Gefühl dass die Menschen immer ungeduldiger werden. Wieso sollte nach dieser Veranstaltung sofort nach Abpfiff der Preis durch die Decke? Ich hab mir die Daten aus der Historie auch schon angeschaut und finde du hast Sie echt gut aufbereitet. Bin mir sicher da bewegt sich was die nächsten Wochen! 😉
alleine die Zahlen der Speaker und der Besucher spricht für sich selbst!
eben, mir stellt sich aber auch die Frage ob es überhaupt einen direkten Zusammenhang zwischen der Konferenz und der Preisentwicklung gibt oder ganz andere Faktoren hier eine Rolle spielen, z. B. das typische Geschäftsjahr wo z. B. Gewinnausschüttungen aus vergangenem Jahr, Abschluss von Geschäftszielen, Invest-Budgets Herbst im aktuellen Jahr eine Rolle spielen. Ich vermute eher das die Consensus schon positive Signale sendet aber nur einer von vielen Faktoren ist. Danke für Deinen Kommentar!
Ich bin absolut tiefenentspannt. Als überzeugter HODLer habe ich auch die deprimierende Periode 2014 - 2016 einfach ausgesessen.
Es ist eine Eigenart des Bitcoin, abwechselnd um den Faktor 10 zu steigen und dann langweilig zu korrigieren.
Wir werden die 100000 USD in wenigen Jahren sehen.
Sowas kann ich gar nicht genau nachempfinden da ich erst 2017 in die Kryptoszene kam, aber habe das Video mit Richard Heart beinahe in Tränen gesehen, der als kontroverse Persönlichkeit wohl auch die Nerven verloren hat.. für viele Leute ist schon der Aktienmarkt ein Grauen mit vielleicht mal 10, 20 oder in Extremfällen 50% Schwankungen, aber was der Kryptomarkt abliefert ist für schwache Nerven praktisch die Hölle.. Du bist sehr optimistisch, ich sehe das langfristig ähnlich, wobei ich trotzdem eine gehörige Portion Spekulation darin sehe.. die letzten Nachrichten hinsichtlich Bitcoin als gewünschte Standardwährung (Twitter CEO) oder NYSE-Handel lassen aber vermuten das die Massenadoption hier weitergeht. Danke!
True the consensus is over and a lot of effort to make cryptos in a better direction. At least repeat the 2017 :) but will it really happen? I do not believe that, though I expect it.
I will Holding, until Lambo parking sweet in front of my house 😂😂
hehe, you just have to chose a good color for your Lambo.. want my green one? 😂
So true 😀
A great post but i will a bit of confusion for the world on bitcoins topic.
I would love to see it to go to glory once again and it sure will be a great movement if it ever gets to it and I do believe it sure will.
Let us hope all for the best.
odd enough that your comment remembers me an old song that i basically hate 😂
Vengaboys - Up & Down - video by Vengaboys
hahhaha I do like the background muxic of it ;)
but not the words hahahahah
cheap cheap! 😂
it is the decentralized engine, though transactions are public. But untraceable currencies such as Monero are poised to capture a decent part of the market share. Stay thirsty my friends.
The so called private coins are a necessary counterpart to the public coins in my point of view. They demonstrate that with blockchain technology it is possible to avoid flat rate taking of money from people by different parties for eternity (who think they have the right and power to do so..) nor make them a glass human to have total control. The dark side remains for criminals but the idea of a private coin is basically good in my point of view because privacy is a high priority.
@onetin84 but to reach $40000 the total market cap of btc should be 5 times then what it is now. And i have belief that it will go to dat mark but still the time can't be predicted..... I have personally seen btc proving many people wrong so let's keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best 👍👍👍
That would be quite crazy.. there are many positive signals like the NYSE listing, Twitter CEO statement, Facebooks dev team for crypto, Bitcoin equality with EUR in Germany, Lightning Network adoption.. i think it needs just one major signal like Amazon accepting Bitcoin and we would see a rally never seen before.. but time will tell, yes. Thanks!
The bitcoin will reach higher figures, so we have seen each time it goes down in price in order to gain momentum to rise more
Yes it's this swinging behaviour it always bounces back after a big slump.. even much stronger! But the time in between these cycle can be very long and exhausting for many people.
Well that was quite disappointing for sure from the bitcoin front but if Nasdaq could come and play a huge role then we are off to a flyer
After reading the Coincierge article i see the development normal and natural and maybe there is no causation at all. Nasdaq futures is planned from what i know, right?
The movement of the market is difficult to predict, because it can rise up drastically. Appropriate calculation to predict it.
Thanks to share @onetin84
Indeed my prediction is more on the funny side, everything is possible but unlikely in my point of view. But maybe i look back after three months and say :"Well, unbelievable that i was so wrong!"
bitcoin is unstoppable
Basically yes, currently i see no chance to stop it.