The deterioration of climax creates new money. Can the child in the turbulent period walk through the flower road?

Hello, I'm @valueup. Nowadays, the financial part posting was late because I was studying cryptocurrency like alien language. I think that it is necessary to understand and connect the white paper like the business report of SEC and the flow of the time in its own way and to be able to have more meaning in Steemit activities, Newbie was lost in own writing.

I just now feel that I have looked at the link to the nature of crypto and price analysis, and I write an article.

The theme is deductive factor analysis, key driver derivation, and inductive verification for cryptocurrency investment. Dare to stock, please understand that you see MACRO style big picture. (Now let's sell the medicine once ~ lol)

Fist of all, when you make an investment, you need confidence for enduring a hard time. It is the safety margins that support the logic and the estimates based on this. What is the safety of margin of crypto investment? Enough to buy it?

I spoke tremendously, but, easily, 'would I like to exchange steem money rewarded as writing from Steemit? Or am I looking to invest in it? In other words, it is the process of finding the answer that started from the trouble of buying or selling. My conclusion, as non-market position player, is that once the adjustment of disparity is over, we should buy and hold it.

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There are three important analysis on investment-1. Fundamental, 2. Technical, and 3. Supply-Demand analysis of investors. The fundamental analysis here is an analysis of how companies can generate cash in the future considering the current business structure and the influence of future materials. Technical analysis is a chart-based price analysis, and supply & demand analysis refers to the analysis of buyers and sellers.

Cryptocurrency is not itself able to create value. Of course, some currencies can be given to the holder as much currencies as the interest rate, but this is not an intrinsic value-creation activity other than increasing the volume in the form of free issue of new shares. Therefore, we believe that the basic analysis of stocks is difficult to apply in this crypto currency analysis. (I personally have some measurement ideas, but I'll keep this out.)

The technical analysis that is the result of price fluctuations is very important and useful, but this is also not suitable for the case of different results of fluctuations in the same scene, as the basis for investing. So, in the end, only the analysis of demand and supply to buy crypto currency remains. To find the basis of investment here, There is no logical answer for without it.

Source: @valueup in steemit

There are three major groups of people who have come to need crypto currencies. 1. wealthy owners who are anxious about the existing system, 2. new operators who want to create new business opportunities, 3. speculators who want to make money from price fluctuations

The needs of each consumer group are thought to be related to the inherent characteristics of crypto currencies: 1. Integrity 2. Low cost 3. Scarcity.

Source:@valueup in steemit

The cryptocurrency based on the technology of block chaining (a new consecutive block, a chain of all connected, what a brilliant naming!) is basically a technique that maximizes the transparency and stability of transactions and the anonymity of transactions. There is a demand for bunkers to keep their wealth or evacuate.

The existing system is dependent on large and small political powers, centered on the United States + the center of issuers + the corporate center. As a key currency, they have used the position of the dollar as badly as possible (if they are in a hurry, they just pay the burden on the world) They have enjoyed the power of credit. By the 2008 global financial crisis, it has been confirmed that the stability based on the credit guarantee can be damaged.

As you all know, Satoshi Nakamoto, a pseudonym, founded Bitcoin in 2009, the year after the financial crisis. In other words, the US and financial institutions, which were at the height of political capitalism in the existing capitalism, are reported to be deteriorating the climax of juggling wealth all over the world for their own benefit. So he made new money based on technology, not based on credit.

Of course, there is a fundamental demand because the wealthy owners who threatened to damage it under the existing system are born with factors that can be favored. In short, if the world's existing economic system is unstable, or if the unfair US-centricism of the key currency superiority is strengthened, the demand of the group 1, the virtual money consumer, will increase.

Thus, the first demand pulling factor is summarized as the uncertainty of the global economy and the strengthening of the nationalism. The indicators for confirming this are the fluctuation rate of VIX (volatility index, the lowest level at present but with CDS,the credit default swap, increased in every crisis), the number of terrorist attacks worldwide, and gold prices.

Source: Block Chain, Yahoo Finance, Four World, Economic Peace Institute, @valueup in steemit

The second group, new entrepreneurs who want to capture and utilize new business opportunities are also significantly related to low cost, which is the fundamental characteristic of new money. Much of modern capitalism is a brokerage (commission) structure. Companies that play a role in adjusting the gap between end-users and suppliers are legally acquiring wealth. It is natural to want to become the owner of the money with the technological advantage of blowing these intermediates by utilizing the characteristics of the block chain.

Some of these connections are also referred to as PinTech, and are becoming one of the leading roles in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Naturally, there will be a lot of demand for revenue opportunities in the flow of innovation, which will stimulate ICO, the virtual currency issuance market, and demand various virtual currencies with technological uniqueness.

So, the second demanding factor is summarized as the possibility increase of finding new business opportunities. The measurement factors are ICO scale and existing market penetration of virtual money (community-based Steemit subscriber trend, music coin's number of streaming and downloads and so on) can be utilized. In short, it is the result of technology that is eaten in reality.

The speculators who want to earn money from the third group, price fluctuations, pay attention to the scarcity that is another characteristic of crypto money. When the speculator plays an active role, it is good to check how much the investment object is different from the quality and quantity for passing their quantities to the grater fool. They love fluctuation and encourage it

They have the potential to be the most aggressive (and vice versa) to short-term demand growth, if though the holding time in market is short, but only a few issues or catalysts are given.

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Source: @valueup in steemit

The analysis on the supply side is summarized as: 1. volatility of volume and 2. legalization of distribution. Most of the cryptocurrency has a limited total issue volume. Therefore, it is greatly influenced by changes in demand. However, since there is volatility in the volume over the same period depending on the rate at which the specified total issue volume is released to the market, it is necessary to concentrate on the rate of timely supply quantities to the market = mining speed.

If the mining method is due to difficulty, the higher the level of difficulty, the less the amount of daily mining will be. = It takes a long time to get one, so the cost of mining is increased when considering the electricity bill and so on. Failure to keep up with demand growth can cause price increases. With the same principle, the narrower the mining interval defined as 10 minutes = the lower the cost, the higher the speed of unloading = the lower the price.

Therefore, the two factors affecting volume volatility are summarized in the level of difficulty and the median confirmation time (mining interval).

The main factor in the second supply part is whether the distribution is legalized. The United States has a lukewarm reaction, though, because of its low cost, fast speed, and anonymity, and its status as a currency for exchange, storage and creation of value is rising. Warren Buffett, the master of value investment, also said in 2014, "Well". I dare to assume that because the world's richest wealth is denominated in dollars and the virtual money market is bigger, there may be a drop in the value of the existing currency, and that the assets to be depreciated to recognize and transfer are too large.

On the other hand, Japan is an aggressive form, such as the revision of the Law on Payment of Money in April 2017, as a means of payment. (Is the name of the founder irrelevant to that of the Japanese?)

In addition, China, which occupied a large part of the volume of transactions, stopped the remittance from overseas due to political reasons. Europe is recognizing it as a currency, and it is raising the intimacy of settlement life worldwide due to legalization of distribution (worldwide, 10% exemption from value added tax).

However, the dark dark forces of the existing system are changing the technology and still have the ambitions they want to control, so they plan to use censorship (some self-certification procedures to prevent hacking etc.) There is. The impact of policy laws on investment analysis is so powerful. In recent years, we can see that the government of Donald Trump government is a clear example of volatility.

In the future, the dark forces are also able to justify a temporary decline, while large-scale purchases of virtual currency speculation by hedge funds disguised as a format, accompanied by a legal political negatives (a kind of ants-individual investors rob).

Source: Block Chain, @valueup in steemit

The possibility of short-term adjustments due to a somewhat high disparity in terms of technological analysis(see the first equity analysis three essentials) is open and going on, (recently focused too excessively press a hot, such as = cocktail effect). Even this caused a temporary price dip, if the rest demand reasons-three elements and one supply element (policy factors are uncertain) is favorable, the mid- to long-term rise turn directions. I think it will continue the up-trend.

The first question is that the safety margin of a virtual money investment can not be accurately derived from the mathematical concept (because of the linear regression analysis of the key components I derived, this is a lagging indicator based on market volatility) I would like to say that the stability of direction is the upward trend in qualitative analysis.

Source: @valueup in steemit

Key drivers to be checked on the supply side in the future are as follows.

Based on this analysis, the global economic structure is still in a state of unstable US - centered conflict, and the desire to distribute the wealth of existing wealthy people is high. In addition, new entrants' market entry desire is high due to the recent rapid ICO opening and the possibility of success in the real estate market. As a result of recent sharp fluctuations, the market demand conditions are very favorable, including the fact that Korea and other global speculators are also added.

On the supply side, the total supply of Bitcoin, world No.1 crypto, is limited to 2,100 million and current of the currency is 16 million slightly. But compared to past 6 months and 1 year, due to difficulty rises and an increase drilling time, the annual supply quantity growth rate is getting down, the market supply side is expected to continue tightened for some time.

However, Japan's policy amendment to the Fund's Payment Mechanism in April 2017 may accelerate the promotion and distribution of payments as a means of payment. However, some European and US policies may be decided on sanctions due to abuse of crime.

Despite the favorable demand environment and tight supplies, I am expecting a somewhat neutral outlook in the short-term, given the series of rather quick price shots in 2017 and policy instability. This implies the possibility of some radical price adjustments, and I believe that we should wait for the re-entry time of Long-Position while waiting for the period adjustment, the instability of policy and legislation to be resolved. But still the buy strategy with the long-term view is valid. It just needs the rest time to take a breath for upper new rise.

Of course, these factors will need to be fully revised if new variables such as the emergence of unexpectedly rapid new technologies, and the monopolistic monetary policy coalition of global government against cryptocurrency appear.

At the present time, however, I think that at least these factors should have direction and understanding so that new issues can be addressed and that even with the sophisticated entry with technical analysis, we will be able to gain strength and strength. It was a sort of self-persuasion process. (Well, the bottom line is Steem It's a love word, it's hard to write sadly ... Just buying and holding with the courage could be expressed too ?! ^^)

Epilogue..

The deterioration of the peak brought about the good money in the inevitability of the period. A kid walks on the flower path. He suddenly laughs at various flowers saying, "Where is the flower that does not shake and blooms?" and goes on his way full of honey. The time for an late ant to join in kid's way is just the moment of rushing over the guy who is drunken with smell of flowers..

At last, it is ended. You maybe handsome and beautiful steemians know that my writing's Key Drivers are full- power voting and following. lol. Reply is probably a major mental factor. Next, I will look at technical analysis of cryptocurrency. Thank you.

P.S If you need laughter, recommend [...] # 1. Untitled (2017) - Steem It version .. the atmosphere seems to be reversed.

:D