As bitcoin price breaks the 200 day MA could this be the sign of the bull run?

This past week has been a historic one for bitcoin and Tuesday 2 April has gone down as possibly the biggest price spike in this entire bull market since December 2017, with bitcoin climbing 20% in just one day. This takes us to a total increase of 50% in price since the $3200 recent low of December 2018, which was curiously almost a year to the week since the previous ATH peak.

A second point that makes the 20% price spike to $5200 this past week so significant is the fact that it smashed through the 200 day moving average, a major resistance line on the entire bear market chart. This could be the first time in a year that this has occurred and is the most certain indicator of a bull market on the horizon.

At this rate 2019 could be the year that makes up for the slump in price all through the year before.

Even Fundstrat Global Advisors are calling the move above the 200 day moving average a statistically meaningful moment. It supposedly brings with it a win-ratio of 80% compared to only 36% when below the 200 day MA. Their figures show average returns of 193% above compared to only 10% when below the 200 day MA, which theoretically means a jump up to $13 500 from the $4 600 level.

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That would take us back to January 2018 levels, a lifetime ago to those who have lived through this current bear market since then.

If the current momentum stays with us, then we could see a seventh consecutive week of price rises. That’s two full months of bullish movement. If April can make it a third then we know we are onto something. The next most obvious hurdle or resistance level is $6 000. Price tried to reach it but has not succeeded yet, and may even fail on the first few attempts.

For example, we still need to retrace from this highly overbought region at the top of the RSI and Stochastic on the longer time frame like the weekly and even the daily chart.

If we retrace back below the 200 day MA and try again to break through afterwards, it wouldn’t be out of character for bitcoin. In February last year, just after the ATH we initially came down quite hard and briefly fell below the 200 day MA for about four days and then jumped up above it. It was only when we again fell below it in early March that we stayed below until now.

So an initial failed first attempt to break through now like this may be pushed back until the next attempt arises with stronger momentum in coming days or weeks. And to get that momentum to push through and stay above the 200 day MA for another entire bull run, we may have to dip as low as retesting the previous lows around $4 000, which is the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level from the low of $3200 to the recent high of $5300 on the Bitfinex chart. Each exchange has slightly differing prices to an estimate is all one can determine.

Let’s see what unfolds this coming week.

These are certainly edgy times and have put traders back into their trading chairs and on the edge of their seats as they wait with anticipation for every next move. Nobody knows for sure and the recent huge spike was completely out of the blue, based probably on a whale move, so anything is possible.

• Where do you think price is headed now?

• Are we officially in the bull market?

Let us know your analysis in the comments below.