14-Days of @HAEJIN - 20/20 Hindsight (BTC Results from 1st-14th Jan 2018)

in crypto •  4 months ago

When someone suggested I look deeper into the @haejin Technical Analysis I took a deep breath and sighed.

Thinking to myself here we go again.

And although it's taken me a little while to clear my head I'm back on track and will continue my research into this supposed TA with 20+ years experience.

Wow we are truely in the company of greatness!

But enough with the pleasantries, lets just dive into it.

So today I'm turning the time machine back a month, to see if haejin's short ranged predictions are indeed forecasts into the future.

But this time I'm just focusing on one crypto coin because we all know that the fate of the alts generally rests on the shoulders of BTC.

So this time we'll just concentrate of the Beast that is BTC and see how accurate @haejins predictions really are.

Afterall we are in this to make profit right?

And as before @haejin will get a +1 when he's correct, a 0 when the jury can't make a decision and a  -1 for a complete FAIL.

(Remember, a final score of '0' is just break even and doesn't suggest you'll make any money at all)

Now this post is going to be a little longer than normal as I'm doing this over a 14 day period, and haejin sometime like to double post, when he's running hot.

But as always you can just skip to the bottom to reveal the final score.

So first lets start with the Bitcoin price chart for the month of Jan 2018

As we can see we have a nice range of price movements over the 14 day period, so @haejin will have to really work for it.


So we start with haejin making some bold predictions about the year ahead

 HAPPY NEW YEAR!! 2018 Shall be the YEAR of ALTCOINS MAKING EXPONENTIAL ORGASMIC LUNGES TO CONTINUOUS NEW ALL TIME HIGHS!! 

Then appears to suggest a crash is not expected!

 Bitcoin (BTC) overnight price action continues to meander along a corrective zone. NO! A crash is NOT expected as it is still being opined by other analysts. 

NB: Note BTC corrects again 4 days time.

And he ends sharing a little of his wisdom.

 Overall, once the BTC correction completes, I believe that then BOTH BTC and Altcoins will move Upwards; 

Wow! So when we reach the bottom, the next move is up. Pure Genius!

Score: -1 

(I'm marking harshly because he's going against public opinion, and suggesting there will be no crash)


Here he's suggesting the correction could be done and actually got this right as BTC moves up from here. However, there is a bold prediction of a 23K target for BTC which was never realised over the month, with BTC currently hovering around 11K.

Score: 0


Plenty of gloating going on here but haejin is still boyish on a $23K target and at this stage you'd be thinking you could nearly double your money and consider selling your house to take advantage of this amazing opportunity.

But as we are thinking like an investor, we'd have more confidence in his predictions so it's all good.

Score: +1


Not much of a prediction here but still bullish on $23K.

Score: 0


I really hate when he quotes real numbers, to suggest he knows exactly when the chart will turn around and in this case all the numbers point to $13912. The problem is the market moved back up before this low, so if you put in a buy price around this indicator you may have missed the run back up.

Score: -1


Finally, haejin is making a little sense and he has rare win here, predicting the short term target to be $17,198 which was very close to the final high.

Score: +1


And then he has to fuck it all up in his Evening Update with his bullish runs again of $18,424 and $20,467 and even touting that $23K target again.

This is the moment a good TA would suggest taking your profits.

Score: -1


Now, this is the day where everything goes south, but haejin just spotted a 3rd fractals and is very confident of BTC reaching $20,467.

I think at this stage he's been reading too much of his dribble and really believes in this magical $23k number.

Score: -1


And a quick Evening Update as @haejin reacts to the market, instead of predicting the market like a TA is supposed to do. And in this detailed update he is clearly puzzled with charts showings highs (even $36K) and other charts predicting a low of $8,350.

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong.

Score: -1


Due to the continuing falling Bitcoin Price, haejin then switches back to a daily update as no news is good news, right?

We get a quote from plato 

 "what are words, but symbols of symbols; hence, twice removed from reality." 

And not really much else. 

Dude the sky is falling and you've go nothing meaningful to say to your followers in the middle of a 25%+ correction. Way to leave them stranded. 

But I'm sure there are another nine alt coins you can pump in the day.

Score: -1


Another lengthy post suggesting he's trying to back peddle and gain some confidence again, and mentions the low of $8K a few days ago as to suggest he predicted this.

He does however have a longer range chart indicating the approx. bottom of this correction. I guess if you throw enough darts at the wall, you'll eventually hit the bullseye.

Score: 0


Ok, haejin gets the points here as a @dbrdr chart does show the price falling just one more time. I won't dwell on it and give @haejin/@dbrdr the points.

Score: +1


Ok, now he's on about having cash on hand to take advantage of the BTFD moment. (Buy the fucking dip) Obviously he forgets his followers are probably already in the red because of that last unexpected dip on the way to 23K ;-)

Score: -1


This morning update offers nothing but talk of a Heads and Shoulders Top, and corresponding dribble. It's clear he doesn't know which way the market is heading at this stage.

Score: 0


In this Evening update, haejin is predicting a bounce, which is correct, although he gives no indication how high.

Score: +1


And now haejin is a little too bullish again with a prediction heading towards $18K if it get's past $16K but in reality the bounce is only as high as $14.5K so once again it could be another missed opportunity for his followers.

Score: -1


Holy Crap! He's predicting bullish runs of $26K and $30K again. And this is moments before it drops below the 13K mark again.

Haejin, check those charts again, because you might be reading them upside down.

Score: -1


And we've come full circle as I've previously provided commentary on this prediction.

 Ok, you predicted 3 touch points for BTC, $26k-$30K, $32K and $6,590 and as you can see over the last 7 days it's failed to reach that low or even get near a high.So if we waited to sell at your bottom we would have missed the bounce. No future date on the highs just makes these predictions worthless. 

Clearly someone was a little angry that day ;-)

Score: -1

Final Score:  -6


Summary:

Haejin really does try to pack in a few extra predictions when BTC is on a run, but this is probably just to maximise his profits. And given the fair range of values on the BTC chart you'd think he would be a little closer to break even. Which wasn't the case even though he squeezed in a few extra predictions, while the going was good.

And @Haejin was also left floundering a few times during the 14-day cycle, and didn't really offer anything up to his growing band of loyal followers. But just like a good Ponzi scheme, as long as you you have noobs coming in at the bottom, you'll always have the appearance of an active community. 

So we learned nothing new here today.

This 20+ years expert should have figured out how to deliver decent TA advice by now, but only seems to deliver when the price is heading up.

Please leave your thoughts and comments below.


And as always, this research takes some time, so a RESTEEM would be appreciated, so we can spread the word.

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Solid post, I threw you a resteem... I'm guessing I would be a bit more correct than your article subject, but hell what do I know.. lol.. excellent work.. I hope my resteem brings you some love..

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Cheers, I appreciate any exposure I can get.

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No worries, mate.. You put a lot of work into this and only wish I would of thought of it first... lol.. Great job.. :)

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with 10 predictions a day, there are plenty to go around :-D

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Nah, I don't roll like that.. this is your brainchild and you deserve success for having the follow through to put it into text.. I could never hijack or piggy back off of another persons gig.. that would be a dick move.. Hell I would have to then write a #shitpost diaries entry for myself if I started stealing other peoples concepts and putting them forth to profit on.. I'm happy to resteem your creation and let you earn for your creativity and efforts..

I've been in the world of investing and trading for over 40 years and I've never seen an Elliot Wave "practitioner" who didn't think he/she was gifted with the ability to predict the future in spite of almost never being right. The funny part is that most can't even tell you what the 3 only and lonely rules are for EW (yes, that's right, there are only 3) and the third is violated and ignored so much that it leaves you wondering just who would follow such nonsense. Of course they always end up telling you that it's a kind of gnosis and it takes special ability to "count" correctly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

That having been said, I do pay attention to a few of the widely recognized patterns, like the extended 3rd for example that has a 1 and 5 of equal length, and zigzags, and flats, etc., etc., but always in the same sense that I watch triangles and wedges, and double bottoms, and the technical indicators, etc., etc., that is, from a probabilistic standpoint and never ever predicting what might happen. A very different way of looking at things.

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haejins advice would be much more useful if he was 'right' at least 51% of the time. :-P

In my experience, crypto and stock trading charts aren't the same. What's your take on it?
Crypto is much more speculative whereas stock trading is usually based on fact.

And thanks for the upvote. That was amazing!

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I see crypto as being even purer markets than the more established when thinking about the psychological aspects of price action, which in turn is what TA is mainly based on along with watching the money flow. More traditional stock and bond markets are less volatile in large part due to the much better informed broader participant base - that's where the very smartest are and they don't let things get too out of line for too long. Things are much more controlled, much better "managed" (some would say manipulated). Crypto is pure animal instincts of a largely uniformed trading group focused almost exclusively on price. Crypto is more speculative long term for sure, especially with the vast majority of crypto that won't even be here in 5 years, but from a short term trader's standpoint, I think it's the best thing since ice cream. And for the long term "investors", it's a wet dream come true . . . if you're holding members of the 1% that will be here in 5 years.

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I don't have the time or the technical expertise but it'd be amazing to set up a website with a heat map of which TA practitioners were doing well and which weren't. If it got popular enough , the good ones would get bigger followings until it all becomes pretty self-fulling.

There's got to be a way to easily set this up... and I think it could dramatically shape the market and show who knows what they are doing and who doesn't.

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I tend to lean more on volume, MA's, MACD and "what is happening" as opposed to "what might happen"..

This is sad. Here on Steemit we have so many great people with top, informative crypto posts, yet all those posts are kind of hidden...
When we click on the trending tag 'altcoin' this is what we get:

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yes! this exactly is another problem being created by flooding certain tags
with blog after blog by 1 user, upvoted by that same user,
not only the so much discussed "rewardpoolrape" that is the problem,
taking away visibility from fellow platformians is equally sad and bad !
how selfish can 1 person be?

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I suspect that for Haejin, all of this now is just a game... Or he is super greedy or he has an overblown ego issue.
I also think that if Steemit members start unfollowing him and upvoting his posts, sooner or later he will have a no choice but to post his analysis less often.

As of now though, he surely isn't slowing down:
haejin.PNG

5 posts in 4 hours!!

Look guys, so now we not only have morning and evening BTC updates, but also the midday ones LOL.updates.PNG

Too bad that his charts and lines couldn't tell him anything about Revain. I guess such predictions could only be done while based on solid fundamentals...

Outstanding post, sir. I must admit that I do appreciate Haejin, for introducing me to the concept of elliot waves and making some easy to understand tutorials. However, there are much better analysts out there who don't hype the shit out of everything. I was a fan, and slowly became disillusioned when even I, as a relatively new trader, realized that alt coins WERE following Bitcoin, yet he continued to make outrageous TA predictions on some of the most useless things I have ever seen. I choose to use TA, and atleast some fundamental analysis on a coin before getting into them and choosing targets, which has worked very well for me with no further guidance. A legit use case, good community, and transparent team usually make for good investments whether you're long or short.

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Im since December on Steemit and haejin was the first guy i followed but also the first guy i unfollowed.
Its nice to see that someone proofs how wrong he is.

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Smart move, it appears you need to have found him in November when the market was going up to make some sizeable gains. But back them every one was winning.

He is the devil! he's not interested in profits. he wants your soul!

DQmZtgc2GZFzMobArwGw6UB1efq1QkBDtq85uXZkv38TQKQ.jpeg

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TA is always valid.
TA isn’t to predict price. Not a crystal ball.
It’s a tool providing awareness and guidance to make decisions.
Nobody can predict market future movement.

In terms of TA use-case, each to their own. It’s your money, your decision, your loss/profit.

In general DYOR and stop judging/blaming the work of others at your loss.

Would you jump off the bridge just because someone says so? and asking how high?

Thanks for verifying what I thought but whenever I suggested any such thing on his posts...got lambasted by his minions...I admit early on I got sucked in by his calm manner...kept me in the game and not panic...but...the bets I have placed on some of his over hyped projections...have been dogs...

Anyone would look like a hero at times when a market has hit a low and then raises upward...he took advantage of that a few months back...

Somewhere along the line he mentioned his day job was in marketing...based on what he's accomplished here...he must be a master at it...

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You are on the money. Stay sharp and you'll get a chance to recover those losses.

Anyone would look like a hero at times when a market has hit a low and then raises upward...he took advantage of that a few months back...

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very nice article! someone doin' work here!
i have to say, as i am quite new to steemit, i have been following the (i just call it that way) '@haejin -controversity' quite some time. i am a @haejin -follower, but i use his post more like an 'interactive price news feed', as he covers many coins.
maybe i am one of the lucky few who do not rely on investment advise by other people (as i am a marketing mba and i know my micro- and marcoeconomical trends), but i am pretty certain a lot of his fellowship wasn't that lucky...
i didn't think his callings were that much off until someone (you) took the time and really exposed it.
appreciate the work! followed, upvoted and resteemed!

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Unfortunately, not everyone is like you. Haejin had a good run when BTC was heading up, but continues to predict good fortune even when it's bad.
He does cover a wide range of coins though, so it's good for a noob to learn whats out there. But be wary investing right now, as the market is really unstable.

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as i stated above, i can make my own market analysis. i already got my portfolio some kind of 'crisis-resistant', because i have invested in btc, bch, eth, zec and various 'minor' coins (i consider coins below 100$ a minor coin, which should not mean you should not invest in these 😉).
but you are right, not everyone is like me. i guess quite a lot of people have lost some money through his 'advise'...

You are a saint for doing this!
I followed him for about a week when I first started but couldn't make heads or tails of his TA... he never gives any indication of timelines, so I have no idea how his followers are even acting on his advice.

Why is ranchorelaxo doing this? That's the real mystery here.

I can't believe you went to all this effort! It's incredible. The most frustrating thing is that Haejin is clogging up all the trending pages so people like @pawsdog who take the time and effort never get a look in.

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Thanks for the analysis, could you make a chart of it so we could see if there is any ew correlations in it? :)

I came to steemit through Haejin, and he is the only reason I started posting my charts myself. He pointed me at elliot waves, but I don't always agree with him . And that is important! You have to do your own work, and learn as much as possible from everyone. EW is just one tool, it is lots of other tools to do a great TA.
Doing a trade is not only TA, it is sentiment and circumstances around too. But just so often you find some of your old charts did fulfill.

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You know what I find to be an odd coincidence and one that has bothered me for some time.. ranch and hai both speak and read Korean.. you can check the vote history of rancho as he as downvoted numerous articles written strictly in the korean language.. I mean what are the odds of two koreans, being on steemit and one choosing to only circle jerk the other while crushing any and all of his dissidents. Theory, one in the same perhaps..

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There absolutely has to be some link...rancho was quiet for months before he popped up and started supporting haejin for no apparent reason. And that's all he does.

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I agree, seems somewhat suspect.

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You'll find a conversation in rancho's wallet when scarlet7 openly admits to having an agreement between the parties.
I think scarlet7 is the PR person in all this, or at the very least the number one fan. And Haejin's posting times suggest he's working in a USA timezone.

Thanks for the analysis of the Haejin Method, you made me smile when reading this.

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I'm glad because my eyes were glazing over near the finish line. :-P

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I was just thinking how hard that must have been to focus on. I don't think I'd have had the time or patience.

I'm following Haejin and did want to do the analysis, which you have posted above. So thx for it!
Don't know if it is really honest to pin point him on one coin only, but I do have a feeling that the scores for other coins will be at the same level.
He only looks at the chart and forgets that emotion has more impact that TA on the coins. Certainly at this moment, with all the FUD and rumors.
People are just following him on Steem to be the first to up-vote to generate some money I guess.
A TA could give you an indication what could happen but should be adjusted with the emotions at that moment. It should be one of the steps in predicting a price movement but not the only step.

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Agreed, but check my other posts, where I research results a for a day.
However, generally, speaking the altcoins follow BTC anyway, so if he doesn't get this right then...