RE: 14-Days of @HAEJIN - 20/20 Hindsight (BTC Results from 1st-14th Jan 2018)
I've been in the world of investing and trading for over 40 years and I've never seen an Elliot Wave "practitioner" who didn't think he/she was gifted with the ability to predict the future in spite of almost never being right. The funny part is that most can't even tell you what the 3 only and lonely rules are for EW (yes, that's right, there are only 3) and the third is violated and ignored so much that it leaves you wondering just who would follow such nonsense. Of course they always end up telling you that it's a kind of gnosis and it takes special ability to "count" correctly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
That having been said, I do pay attention to a few of the widely recognized patterns, like the extended 3rd for example that has a 1 and 5 of equal length, and zigzags, and flats, etc., etc., but always in the same sense that I watch triangles and wedges, and double bottoms, and the technical indicators, etc., etc., that is, from a probabilistic standpoint and never ever predicting what might happen. A very different way of looking at things.
haejins advice would be much more useful if he was 'right' at least 51% of the time. :-P
In my experience, crypto and stock trading charts aren't the same. What's your take on it?
Crypto is much more speculative whereas stock trading is usually based on fact.
And thanks for the upvote. That was amazing!
I see crypto as being even purer markets than the more established when thinking about the psychological aspects of price action, which in turn is what TA is mainly based on along with watching the money flow. More traditional stock and bond markets are less volatile in large part due to the much better informed broader participant base - that's where the very smartest are and they don't let things get too out of line for too long. Things are much more controlled, much better "managed" (some would say manipulated). Crypto is pure animal instincts of a largely uniformed trading group focused almost exclusively on price. Crypto is more speculative long term for sure, especially with the vast majority of crypto that won't even be here in 5 years, but from a short term trader's standpoint, I think it's the best thing since ice cream. And for the long term "investors", it's a wet dream come true . . . if you're holding members of the 1% that will be here in 5 years.
I don't have the time or the technical expertise but it'd be amazing to set up a website with a heat map of which TA practitioners were doing well and which weren't. If it got popular enough , the good ones would get bigger followings until it all becomes pretty self-fulling.
There's got to be a way to easily set this up... and I think it could dramatically shape the market and show who knows what they are doing and who doesn't.
I tend to lean more on volume, MA's, MACD and "what is happening" as opposed to "what might happen"..