US COVID Update (20-04-2020)
Not a lot to report tonight. There were 2500 new cases more than yesterday, but I'll explain that in a bit. The daily new cases changes really don't matter much any more. More important might be the rolling average of the past week.
I think we're finally beginning to see the new cases coming from more and wider testing.
What really matters is new deaths compared to yesterday. And I may change that to the difference between today's new deaths and the average of the past week, because the death reports are varying as a matter of reporting within each state as the states are more and more using their own definitions of a "coronavirus related death" now. I'm guessing that is in an effort to maximize the amount of federal money they get, but I'm a hard core cynic. They may also be doing it for other, political, reasons. At any rate, deaths reported are no longer of only cases of confirmed COVID+ individuals.
CT, with more later, now says "For public health surveillance, COVID-19-associated deaths include persons who tested positive for COVID-19 around the time of death and persons who were not tested for COVID-19 whose death certificate lists COVID-19 disease as a cause of death or a significant condition contributing to death." That's very broad and subject to a lot of possible a lot of "interpretation".
Anyway. New deaths up 400 with 165 of being reported in, ta-dah!!, CT of all places. CT's reports over the past month for month show a tri-modal nature of 5 days (M-F) averaging 800 total new cases per day followed by two days (Sa-Su) of numbers 200 below that. Pretty obviously reporting problem. So tomorrow I'll see if that pattern is holding. It's deaths though peaked on Apr 11 and declined steadily this past week until the leap today. Think what you will about that.
Meanwhile, every other states is in low double-to-single digits, flat or declining in low double-to-single digits in new deaths, except GA, MD and NJ which were higher by 80, 70, and 40. GA and MD numbers were essentially Atlanta and Baltimore driven.
Overall in the US then, new deaths are down slightly. The next couple of days will tell us more.
CA also showed a big jump of 1500 more new cases, but an increase in new deaths of only 20. CA has begun testing many more people with fewer or no symptoms. That would account for the disparity in new cases vs new deaths.
But here is something else for you to think about.
| State | Cases per 1M pop | Deaths per 1M pop |
|---|---|---|
| NY | 12850 | 975 |
| NJ | 9999 | 493 |
| MA | 5804 | 265 |
| CT | 5533 | 372 |
| LA | 5258 | 285 |
| RI | 4817 | 147 |
| DC | 4276 | 153 |
| MI | 3214 | 248 |
| DE | 3891 | 76 |
| PA | 2651 | 105 |
| IL | 2457 | 105 |
| US | 2395 | 128 |
| MD | 2279 | 97 |
Do you see what I see? I have ordered the states above the US average from the highest number of cases. 10 states and the District of Columbia have higher rates of infection than the US average. All the rest are below that. MD is just a bit below in infection rate but way below in death rate. The other states' infection rates drop very rapidly after MD. They vary from 2000/1M to 400/1M. The NYC area states (NY/NJ/MA/CT/RI/DE) are 6 of the 10 with the highest infection rates. That can't be coincidence.
Then the death rate is double in NY to NJ which is almost double of MA and CT. The NYC area (and it's worse if I use just the urban area and leave out the rural and "outstate" areas in NY) of NY/NJ/CT have the highest death rates. That can't be coincidence either. All the NYC area states except DE have much higher death rates than the rest of the states except MI.
LA is a sort of outlier except that not only is New Orleans the main Metro area in LA, it had Mardi Gras right in the worst possible time for infections. Add to that the fact that New Orleans Metro also has a very high incidence of the more deadly comorbidities and you have a "perfect storm" for a smallish warmer state that might have been much better off had the major infection period been a month earlier or a month later.
The other states and DC in the 10 basically have larger Metro areas and are not really warm weather states.
And MI's cases and deaths are highly concentrated in just three counties Wayne (which includes Detroit), Oakland, and Macomb. They have 75% of MI cases and about 30% of the population. Wayne/Detroit alone has 45% of the cases and 14% of the population. The three counties have 85% of the deaths in the state and Wayne/Detroit has 47% of the state's deaths.
I see another thing or two, but YMMV, so I'll move on.
Folks, this is a highly concentrated epidemic, and it kills very specific parts of the population -- urban residents or at least residents in high density areas, older (in MI the median age of death from COVID is 75), with at least one, and on average one+ more of the comorbidities of heart problems, lung problems, diabetes, or BMI >30. An additional important variable appears to be multi-generational families of 4+ or more living in smaller homes.
We don't need to treat the entire country and almost all states the same as we treat the high population density parts of a few states. Even DE has a relatively low death rate, and it's hardly that rural. Treat the 'dangerous' parts of the country and its most vulnerable individuals differently than you do everything and everyone else. Social distancing was to be used to "flatten the curve" and relieve pressure on health care systems. Well, it has done that. Now it is being used to imprison people and deprive them of their Constitutional Rights and Liberties. Time's Up! Free those in less dangerous areas and the less vulnerable individuals. We can't live in fear, nor in an East German style tattletale state. If we try, something will have to give and it may get ugly.
All of life is a series of trade-offs. It is best to know and consider what you're giving and what you're getting, not just now but in the future.
Political rant off. Needed to get that off my chest.
Things are looking better. Be serious, not only about COVID-19, but about the other important parts of your life, don't live in fear. Practice good health behavior for your own benefit and for the benefit of others. Take care of your loved ones and those around you. Don't be hysterical. You don't have to agree with me, but think carefully and make up your own mind about the trades you make.