I'm not one of those people who uses charts and algorithms to try to make predictions. Honestly, when it comes to Steem's recovery I think it comes down to when the leadership of this site takes certain actions, and it's hard to predict when that might happen.

I think the key steps are:

1. Ned must turn a lot of his liquid Steem into Steem power to prove he is not planning on just taking off some day.
2. We need assurances that there were never be a hardfork as bad as HF20, which confused a lot of people and made some people leave the site
3. DTube needs to be massively improved. With so many YouTubers getting demonetized now, there should be a big market of people who want to come to Steem, but DTube is so bad that it is unusable at times. Instead of getting some huge names to join the site (@tjkirk was the main exception I know of), people just looked at it and went back to YouTube. I think this can still be fixed though if the DTube uploader is significantly improved.

I know it's not an exact answer, but Steem will recover when at least two of these things happen. Unfortunately, I haven't seen much progress on any of them.