China's Population Crisis / 中国的人口问题

A relatively well known fact is that China has the largest population in the world. This has been of great concern to our government for many years now as there will reach a point where the elderly will almost equal the number of people in employment. Some experts say as soon as 2040. That’s a disconcerting prospect for the future.  

中国拥有世界上最多的人口， 这是一个众所周知的事实。中国政府多年来一直很关注这个问题，唯恐不久的将来我们的老年人口会上升到与就业人口一样。一些专家评论，也许2040年这个可怕的预言就会实现，那可不是一个乐观的前景。 

Currently, China’s GDP is fast catching up to the USA’s and looking very like to surpass it very soon. However, could the demographic problems looming on the horizon adversely affect this seemingly inevitable outcome? What has China done about this thus far and what further action could they take it the future? 

目前，中国国内生产总值快速跟上美国，相信不久就能超越它。然而，这个隐约可见的人口问题会影响这个看似必然的结果吗？那么中国迄今为止采取了什么行动呢？下一步又该如何呢？

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China’s Fight against the Clock / 中国必须争分夺秒 

The problems outlined above are already beginning to surface for the Chinese government to try and solve. For example, last year it was announced that the Chinese army may have to reduce its number by up to 300,000. Though no conclusive reason was given by the Chinese authorities, this was widely believed to be because of labour shortages already affecting certain parts of China.   

上述问题已经开始逐渐浮出水面，等待着中国政府去解决。例如 ，去年中国宣布军队将减少30万人数，虽然政府没有给出明确的原因，这被普遍认为是由于中国某些地区劳动力短缺所致。 

Longer term economic forecasts paint a picture of uncertainty as to how China will deal with this. The elderly will need people to attend to them on a daily basis, sometimes requiring round-the-clock care given their differing individual needs. If the statistical analysis is correct, how will the spread of labour be apportioned accordingly with so few eligible workers available? It is a worrying dilemma, to say the least. 

经济预言家对中国将如何处理这个问题也抱着很大疑问与不确定性。老年人将需要人每天照顾，根据个人不同身体状况有时候甚至需要每小时的护理。如果这个统计分析是正确的话，我们将如何按比例分配劳动力呢？这可真是一个令人担忧的问题。 

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What Has Been Done About It So Far? / 迄今为止所采取的行动是什么？ 

Of course, the most famous “one child policy” rule introduced in 1978 to 1980 was a quick fix for our increasing Chinese population. This I feel, while a good idea at the time, produced a double edged sword. On the one hand, you had a solution for kerbing population growth but also created a side effect  of having fewer younger generation Chinese who would be needed to assist with the elderly as well as sustain growth in GDP to progress China. 

众所周知，在1978年至1980年推出的“独生子女政策”是政府为了解决中国人口问题所采取的快速解决方案。我个人觉得，这虽然在当时看来是个好主意，但同时也制造了一把双刃剑。一方面确实解决了人口增长问题，但也导致了更少的年轻人来照顾有需要的老年人以及更少劳动力来推动中国GDP的增长。 

This was overturned in 2015 when the “two child policy” was phased in to try to bring balance to both the population and demographic concerns, but one must ask, is this too little too late? When the one child policy was in place, the overwhelming majority of children born were boys. This imbalance in gender also raises future demographic issues for families across China.   

“独生子女政策”在2015年被新的“两孩政策”取代了，用以平衡人口问题。可是，这已经太晚了吗？当实行“独生子女政策”的时期，出生的绝大多数是男孩。这种性别数量不平衡也将影响中国的家庭生育计划。 

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Difficult Choices Ahead / 艰难的选择 

Though living in London, my entire family is based in China so this is as much a concern for me as it is for millions of other Chinese out there. The way I see it, there is no avoiding a conflict of interests and one solution will cause another problem.  

虽然我生活在伦敦，但家人都在国内，所以我和数百万国人一样都很关注这个问题。在我看来，是没有任何政策可以完全避免冲突，一个解决方案会导致另一个新问题的产生。 

Maybe our government will keep production levels and GDP running at the current rate of growth while attempting to somehow budget for elderly care. Or possibly slow the rate of economic growth down and redistribute its wealth to provide adequate support for its people. Unfortunately, it seems like there just has to be a trade off somewhere. 

也许我们的政府将保持现有生产力水平和目前国民生产总值的增长速度，并拨款支援养老服务。又或者政府决定减缓经济增速和为支持个人而重新分配财富资源。遗憾地说，无论政府采取什么措施，都需要权衡利弊，得失取舍。 

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These are just my opinions on how I see the matter from a personal point of view. I feel like it is a ticking time bomb ready to go off in the next few years unless some drastic action is taken soon. I would be happy to hear your thoughts on this sensitive subject?     

以上只是我对这个问题的个人看法。我觉得这像一个定时炸弹在未来几年随时会引爆，除非政府采取及时有效措施。欢迎大家也来说说你们的看法。    

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