Musical chairs FOMO
Anyone notice how fast asset prices moved up in certain realms? We live in a world where the last price of a trade determines the marketcap, when any savvy investor should know that there's no realistic way that the entire float or inventory can be sold at that price.
Everything feels like musical chairs is being played and everyone has to fight over 5 chairs, but only because 95 chairs are sat in even when the music starts playing. And when it all goes to shit and no one wants your chair, everyone just starts playing somewhere else!
Investing in the hottest thing becomes quite a self-fulfilling prophecy when enough people hop on the train. This is especially true for relatively illquid assets, because no one wants to let go of what they have when the market is going up.
In the case of crypto we see scenarios where much of the inventory is locked up in ancient untouched cold wallets, so what's traded is but a fraction of the total coins out there, yet the marketcap is calculated off of the entire possible inventory. Kind of absurd if you think about it.
And the same could be said of many equities! There you'll also find many cases of stocks blowing through new all time highs when upwards of 75, 80, 85% are institutionally held, similar to the ratios of coins held by similar entities that may move on slower timescales than the average momentum chaser with a credit card and a dream.
Don't even get me started on house prices. Same story there, in fact banks sat on inventory for years trying to keep prices higher than where they should be. Restrict the supply of what can be traded and what little demand exists has to fight over something that is less scarce than it is made to appear.
I honestly don't even know what the best way to preserve any sort of capital going forward is, this isn't something that's ever happened before and it's all happening on a global scale. I'm not so sure that a completely clean slate for everyone would be the least messy way of dealing with everything. I just know that I don't want people to suffer unnecessarily. Things could be a lot simpler but here we are, overcomplicating things time and time again.
Hold cash until the real estate bust, then buy non-coastal land with extremely plentiful water supply.
Alternately, copper looks pretty good at the moment.
Time to short non-bank lenders! I have my eyeballs on companies with cashflow issues who require access to cheap debt. So, basically everyone.
The thing I'm worried about is that demand drives price so much on metals and they got absolutely crushed last recession. We've yet to see what QE unwind does to them, I guess.
I'm short basically everyone and it's not going well. I might as well have bought $3 Steem. A few more weeks left for something bad to happen.
I'm not thrilled with precious metals value but copper and nickel in particular I think are on the rise as far as pure resource value goes, and underpriced for it. The future is battery-powered.
Rates probably getting raised, tariffs incoming, maybe you still have time.
There is a lot of truth there!! That's why one informs themselves of trends over a decade or more and make a plan to gain a solid asset that is out of favor at the moment at cheap prices to hold as long term savings against a devaluing government fiat shitcoin. Play the same game as they do. I chose physical silver as such asset because it is so commonly used in our everyday life from clothing to electronics, solar panels ,medicine. We have been using it at a deficit for the last 20 years (we use more than what is mined , depleting existing supply) the price is kept artificially low by big banks with ETF that far exceeds the physical supply. Since currency has been debased from silver, inflation has set in and eroded $ to nothing and will continue to do so. It currently sells for around 20$ CAD/troy ounce but if it had kept up with US national debt ( the price is mainly tied to their economy)and un-manipulated it should be worth near $100 /troy ounce. same case for gold but with higher prices but it's not an industrial asset. Not Investment advice just my opinion and food for thought.
I agree with what you're saying, metals are a direct competitor to fiat so the prices have to be kept somewhat unattractive. Especially considering your bank just sold all of its gold!
Smart stuff, but I would assume the first rule of in-hand pm owning would be... not talking about owning them, lol.
Although physical does decouple from paper prices a lot I am kind of worried that metals will get hammered like they did last time. Also worth mentioning that a lot of mining operators are heavily indebted and corporate debt being inaccessible might change the price dynamics this time, I know some smart people have talked about possible scenarios where certain commodities trend differently than the last crisis.
I agree the first rule would be to not talk about it but just like you, Most stackers also want to wake up the masses as to what establishment is up to and how to protect themselves before SHTF. No country is immune from this and the economy will fall like a bunch of dominoes when it happens. The key here is proper secure storage and that is the information that shouldn't be disclosed.
During the crisis yes, the prices plunge because the ETF's are the first thing the banks sell to cover their shorts and stay in business, that would cause separation with the physical price, being much harder to get our hands on it. Why it is best to slowly accumulate every time the price dips when times are good. That being said, having a good store of non perishable food and water to weather the initial shock like rice beans, lentils, pasta, foods that will never go bad. When markets recover, precious metals are the first ones to go up sky high because of the trust factor they represent. In the last crash over sub-prime mortgage, once the market started to recover, precious metals reached all time highs, gold being around $2000 US. It may not help during the crises but being prepared will and holding these instead of fiat will help retain purchase power during the recovery when other assets are cheap, like real estate.
Many silver mines are now closed because they cannot operate under the current price. Those who keep supplying the markets are those who mine other metals and silver comes as a by product but these ores are getting less concentrated as time goes on.
One trick to keep eyes on, The dow and precious metal are always opposite of each other, they never move in the same direction and when compared in one chart, they form a diamond shape on charts. When the Dow is at an all time high, metals are out of favor and vice versa. When the dow is at it's lowest, it's time to ditch the shinny and get into real estate, stocks etc... that are still standing and have a chance to go back up, lather rinse repeat. In the end every crisis reacts differently but the deeper you look into the past, the further into the future you can see.
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ty @charitybot
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