RE: Hold On The Panic Is Coming...
I always try to beat into the ground the concept of just how scarce Steem really is. Why do we need big “investors” coming in?!? We need businesses and users. If we hit even 10 Million users in the next couple years we’re talking about the average account size being 40 Steem, earning 2 to 3 Steem per year from the rewards pool. And those are averages. Factoring in Steemit Inc. and current whale stake, we can cut that in half for the median. At only 10 million users, look for 20 SP to be a sizeable account balance! Crank it up to 100 million people, (still small considering traditional sites and media) across all the apps & countries being served by Steem and we’re looking at single digit Steem balances being normal, 2-5 Steem.
I don’t want to attract 200 vulture capitalist “investors” to buy a million Steem each. I want to attract 10 million users to hold 20 Steem each!
Any talk of investor friendliness is ass backwards. Apple has a great company ideal that states, “Profit is our reward for providing an exceptional customer experience.” In the case of Steem, business and user friendliness are paramount to investors. Investors will reap their rewards when those segments are properly tended to.
I do not know for sure, but it seems to me whatever formula you have used to arrive at these predictions is missing something. Have you factored in inflation? And what about all the debt on the network? There is some 9 million SBD out there which is, I am not good at arithmetic, but something like 22 million STEEM waiting to be added to the total supply(though since the change in the UI that prevented the average user from burning SBD for STEEM and instead offered only the option to trade SBD for STEEM, I have wondered if someone is amassing a lot of SBD waiting to turn it into STEEM at the perfect moment when it will return the highest amount of it, and if that is the case, then you can expect a massive inflationary event at some point in the near future), and new SBD will continue to be created every day now it seems.
I do not think that 20 STEEM will be considered a sizeable amount of STEEM in a couple years. 200, seems more realistic to me. But, this is just my initial thoughts when reading your comment. If you can provide the formula you used to make me better understand how you arrived at where you did, then that would be helpful. Because it sounds for sure that if what you say is correct, holding onto even 1 STEEM right now could be very profitable. I want you to be right, my brain is simply not accepting it right now - so if I've missed something, do enlighten me.
Honestly, just some quick rough estimates in my head. But you got me to take a look at the actual figures a bit more! 😄
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So with the debt we’re at 333 million Steem existing. Inflation is roughly 8.5%.
Let’s even say it’ll take 5 years to reach 10 million accounts. Simplistically speaking (+8.5% a year) we’re up to 417 million Steem by then, but it’s actually less because of falling inflation and some burn mechanisms. 10 million accounts in 5 years time = 41.7 Steem per account if everyone magically had an equal share! The “middle class” will actually have about half this amount. And with inflation that year running around 35 million Steem, the average Steem per year per account is 3.5, again with the median being half that or less. We’re talking 1-2 Steem per year earned by “normal” accounts if we hit 10 million users in 5 years!
Steem is a very scarce commodity with even a modest userbase. 500 Steem won’t remain the threshold to “minnowdom.” At any sort of scale that’ll practically be the new whale!
Thanks for taking the time to break it down for me. This is quite inspiring. I will need to start acquiring more STEEM, and selling less of it.
Do feel a bit silly as I have had probably 20,000 or more of it altogether, but I suppose I didn't have much of an option but to sell that at the time I did. I am just glad it's still not too difficult to earn small quantities of it at this moment in time.
I always knew I'd be a wealthy internet tycoon 😜 hodl hard! my hopefully 2000 organically grown steem will be the stuff of legends ! If I can buy just one Lambo it will have all been worth it! I imagine my portfolio will be a few BTC valued at a John McAfee dick eating Million each, and If that all goes to shit I'll have my dramacoins to fall back on...
How much is 20 steem going to be worth when freedom and company have millions and control the code?
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I’m heartened by the clear demonstration of aggroed’s case earlier this year that the Freedom vote is not necessary to achieve a top 20 witness position. There also is a clear trend toward the growth of stake percentage in the smaller accounts.
I haven’t seen the numbers quantified, but it’s my gut feeling that there is also lots of stake in these small to midsize accounts going unused in the witness process. I do hope to see the Steem political system develop more as things progress. I’d love if there were even just a few organizations that clearly espoused their witness voting criteria and new users were better informed on how to evaluate several proposals and proxy their votes accordingly.
I think Steem is still more decentralized than many projects like the block producers on EOS for instance. The biggest risk is if the official Steemit Inc. accounts would ever step in and put those vests into witness voting. That would be the only insurmountable voting obstacle with the present stake distribution. If it were to happen I think we would then see a very clear fork/exodus at that time which I’d support.
I can agree that seeing aggroed rise up the ranks was a positive. I'm not hopeless or I wouldn't be here. My unpopular opinions generally get a defensive why are you even here if you don't like it response. For the drama of course!!!
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