Do recessions reduce CO2 emissions?

in #busy6 years ago

The answer is Yes.

The Great Financial Crash, which got triggered by Lehman's Brothers collapsing in 2008, sent the world into a recession in 2009.


source

Recessions mean reduced industrial activity. Households too are careful not to waste petrol and electricity, and they buy less stuff (triggering a drop in manufacturing, which in turn triggers a drop in energy use by factories).

In 2009 global emissions dropped by 1.3%. According to the Guardian, most of the drop was in developed nations where the recession was most severe:

Because the global financial crisis has mainly affected developed nations, this is where emissions dropped by the largest amounts: in the US by 6.9%, the UK by 8.6%, Germany by 7%, Japan by 11.8%, Russia by 8.4% and Australia by 0.4%.

In the emerging markets, however, there were big increases: China rose by 8%, India by 6.2% and South Korea by 1.4%.

Why did emissions in emerging markets rise? India didn't really have a recession, as it's banks were unaffected, and it generates most of it's GDP within it's borders. China dealt with the crash by going on a massive public spending spree, with the government paying for all sorts of energy-intensive construction projects to keep people employed. China's energy was powered by coal power stations.

In a way it's sad that a recession was needed to drop emissions. But it also points to a way forward - if we simply buy less stuff, that should reduce emissions produced by manufacture and transportation.

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Buying less meat also has the same effect. Same with not flying so much and simply holidaying in your back garden.

Yes. But people only really stop doing these things when they are financially distressed. Which is why emissions tend to only drop during recessions.

I guess this is human nature - we take the easy way unless we are forced to by circumstances.

Perhaps these trade wars that Trump is starting will reduce emissions!

Ha Ha. He might unexpectedly save the world!

To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:

My sources say no

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