Not bullish yet
Bitcoin has been going up over night and I see some people on various telegram channels calling for the next bull market.
I guess they are seeing a new little bull that has been born
Well not yet
Over night a a very very short term down trend was broken to the upside and yes that is good for the bulls. However until we are breaking the slightly larger downtrend there is little bullish momentum.
We need to break this trend and the last high of around 3700 to turn somewhat bullish, then find enough strength to break the 4300 resistance.
When this happens we probably are getting to a nice dead cat bounce that will be stopped below 6000 and then lead us to the ultimate low of this bear market of around hopefully above the $1000 mark.
So no bull market in sight for a while.
But a potential trading opportunity and getting ready for bigger shorts in 2019.
It will take some while for a new bull run. That is unless there is a major outside event. And there are a couple of possibilities.
Brexit might cause people parking their pounds in bitcoin to minimize the risk of holding pounds. The more uncertainty in the UK the better for us. But I dont think brexit will be that dramatic so I dont expect much.
On the other hand if france or italy destroy the euro, that could cause a major uptrend for crypto. Lots of people in Europe will try to get rid of their euros when there is bad news and crypto is the logical path to do so.
While I think that 2019 will be quite boring crypto year, there are in fact some events that could trigger a bull run.
I always find it interesting how some think a very short term turn calls for bull or bearish trend. At this point to start calling bull is really early IMO. But I guess since so many of those who make these calls have zero concern for who they may or may not hurt financially they will make any call that they feel might benefit themselves.
Also worth noting that the uptick has been relatively low volume. This to me says a lot more then the actual price movement. If we start seeing upticks with large volume I'll get excited even if the price drifts back downward until the next large volume action. Right now it's downward pressure over and over with the large volume and drifting upwards on low volume, that screams bear with some support. That support is what gives me long term hope.
Haha, awesome pic!!! Yea, definitely same boat. We're just seeing some small upside for consolidation and to keep normalizing the daily RSI (which is now technically in normal levels at 31).
Likely longer consolidation and then pullback. If you look at the other cryptos, we haven't even had a significant bounce since April -- just lots of small consolidation moves.
It will likely be a couple years before we see another bull run for crypto. It will need to allow time for people to forget about what happened this year. Right now, every time crypto goes up a little there will be a wave of sellers who were recently burned by the huge drop. It will take a while to get through all of that.
A couple if years? Wow that is a long time.
I think a couple of years of downturn would surprise me. But 3 years of downtime seems conceivable.
The bitcoin bubbles have gotten slower over time and the last one took 1.5 years to turn around.
Plus there is now much more real economies like miners and crypto projects that make a recovery slower.
Agreed with everything including the price levels you mentioned. I still think shorting at this moment is too risky. The best thing is gathering up more fiat to ladder back in. One thing I'm somewhat expecting is altcoins to become less correlated with bitcoin in the coming months. I'm already seeing good seeds of this. It is unrealistic to expect altcoins to be fully independent in the coming year. But if I see at least moderate amount of decoupling, I'd be calling that the bull is near.
Let's see how this goes. Wish everyone MASSIVE Profits!!!
Great! I am hopeful that good things will come next year! Keep growing!
For me, until 4k is completely normal, taking out the huge bubble the price continues to be ascending from a perspective of 2016 until today.
What on earth is a"dead cat bounce"? That is a new term to me...
It's a bounce with no momentum. Basically the term comes from something along the lines of if anything drops hard enough (referring to market action) even a dead cat will bounce a little.
It's basically a small price action to the upside before more downside action continues.
Good call, I purchased yesterday some BNB and IOTA to speculate on a move up to around 4000-4200$. I hope that will play out otherwise my stop at 3200 is going into play. Anyways its a great risk/reward ratio for this trade and if we look at the Shorts positions on Bitmex they are on all time high so mpst traders have to buy back all those shorts at some point.
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$1k o_O
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