BTC doing what it is supposed to. Means squash so far!
Bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to. It is moving up, after a short correction.
This is what we anticipated, bitcoin to move up in 5 waves, where the 3. wave just started.
However in order for this theory to hold up a few things must be true:
- at some point we need some volume (so far we have not really seen that)
- we need to get above 6800 in the next few days.
- if that is the case we also need break the downtrend on the log chart (started in december)
The big picture
We are currently bouncing off the log channel of uptrend that was started in 2015 and we broke out of a bit over a year ago. If this would hold that would show some nice strength. (red arrow)
In December we fell off the super long term uptrend of btc. (blue arrow)
I am hoping for another run at this one, which is possible if the bottom has been found at this time. But for now we need to see if we are really done correcting and going back into an uptrend. For that first we need to break the current downtrend (black arrow).
This is why the next days and one ore two weeks are quite important.
The Risk
Even if we break out, it does not mean that this correction is over. We may go back to the 200 MA and 10k and fall off that level. This is what kinda happened in 2014.
In fact so far the correction has not been that severe. Seriously we were only at 20k for a few hours really the top was kinda at 15-17k and from that we have only lost a little over 50%. That is nothing in bitcoin land.
There are still many hodlers that don't mind that sort of down price action.
So be very aware that
- We need to rally now and find volume (else we are going towads, 5,3,2 and even 1k price levels). Listen to Tone Vays or watch @famunger daily report
- Even if wea successfully moving up, this does not mean the bear is over. Only after we reach 20k and higher can we be confident that this is the case. (Now i personally want to be long earlier but that's a different story)
Looking at the action and odds
I feel like we have a good chance to move upwards now. I am long and happy with that. However we must watch the price and act accordingly.
If we do not manage to go above 6800 the elliot wave is not going up but down. Then we must also break out of the downtrend.
This is a gmable. All we can do is make bets we think are profitable.
Good Luck!
Lol
Maybe this will be the beginning of a nice bull run. We did not have that in a while now unfortunately.
lets see an upward trend already !
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I think @realmeandi has been hacked do not click on the link.
@knircky as per my experience in crypto market i think correction is not yet over but i think after a short span we will be seeing bull run in the market. 2nd half of 2018 an be same like as of 2017. but for that we have to wait and watch. by the way thanks a lot for giving your analysis for BTC.
Thanks for the study, and for the news to invest.
excellent review, these topics are the key to success today, good luck!! Greetings from Venezuela.
I feel like we are about to see a period of sideways action with a range of 6200-7200. This to me would be a healthy thing vs a defined bull/bear market. It will weed out some of the weaker holders and allow new money into the system without the panic of FOMO type buying that had been happening. The FOMO buyers tend to cause massive swings as they panic sell just as they panic purchased.
With a sideways movement for a period of another 45-90 days I feel it will create a very strong support floor.
I'm feeling quite BEARISH, as in, if no break out occurs during the following days, then we are probable heading for a challenge against the support at 5700-5800, which is pretty strong as we've seen. but it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks as well.
Like you've said, 50% correction in bitcoin land is just another day.
Thanks for your analysis, I agree for the most part, maybe just a bit more skeptical of a serious bull run to start now. Let the gambling begin! : )