Comparing price action of BTS and NXT sharedrops: Peerplays vs Ardor

in #bitshares5 years ago

With the recent announcements from Peerplays and Ardor to share drop onto BTS and NXT token holders i thought i might be interesting to do a comparison on the price action since the announcements.

Ardor

First to make their announcement on the 18th/19th of July that they would be using the avg holding of NXT during a snapshot period lasting for 90 days

  • Announced - 18/19th of July 2016
  • Snapshot Start - July 14th 2016
  • Snapshot End - October 12th 2016

Peerplays

The team at Peerplays made an announcement on the 12th of August that they would be using a random date in a snapshot window lasting 16 days to distribute Peerplays tokens to BTS holders

  • Announced - 12th of August 2016
  • Snapshot Start - September 1st 2016
  • Snapshot End - September 16th 2016

Charts

Given the details of the sharedrops are out of the way we can look at some charts with the important dates marked.

NXT - 12h candles

We can see the announcement caused and immediate jump in price, followed by a period of sideways movement before another explosive move higher, another pull back and a further rally to the finish line before the sharedrop period started; leaving NXT holders with a 400% capital increase at a price of 4405 Sats per NXT.

Since the snapshot period started we can see that some NXT holder's have taken some profits as the price decreased into the snapshot start date before finding support on the 50 period moving average and following it up to a new high of 4891 Sats. Price is still above the 50 period moving average but is relying on this support to hold again; it will be interesting to see how the next few days play out in the NXT market.

Given it is an average holding over a 90 day period if people sell out their holding before the end of the period this will reduce their average for the period and as such will reduce their total Ardor tokens. in saying that some market participants will be made up of hardcore NXT fans and some will be pure speculators; looking to cash in on the desire of the NXT holders to capitalize on the free Ardor shares and also pick up some bonus tokens for their efforts.

It is interesting to see the OBV value (pink line) showing buy/sell pressure at the start of the snapshot period and during the second rise in price; this shows that heavy selling by speculator as the snapshot started and the unwillingness to sell by the market (lack of supply) during the second peak which resulted in a higher prices on low volume


BTS - 12h candles

With 11 days before the snapshot period actually starts, the price of BTS also experience a similar rally soon after the announcement, coupled with some rather large volume spikes the price has moved up 36% in the last 7 days to a high of 1045 Sats.

1000 Sats is a psychological level that has been observed to slow even the strongest rallies in many other crypto markets; in saying this the price broke straight through it before pulling back to settle on the lower side of it with the current market price at 965 sats.

The chart also shows signs that the 9 period moving average is showing some support. OBV is showing that demand is dominating and in the last few candles we can sell that sell pressure is easing.

Looking at similar time frames

If we compare the markets for 1 week after the announcement was made we can see some similarities in the price actions and volume profiles for both these markets.


NXT - 12h candles
In the week proceeding the announcement NXT managed to move a whopping 77.06% from the announcement price with OBV (Pink line) making higher highs suggesting buying was out weighing selling; a small pull back before the explosive move seen on the previous chart; to do a fair comparison this is not displayed on this chart but it literally started in the next 12 hour candle


BTS - 12h candles
In the week proceeding the announcement BTS managed to move a very respectable 37.9% with a high price of 1048Sats; all the while showing impressive volume with OBV making higher highs suggesting good buy pressure. in the two large candles on the 13th and 17th ~200 Million BTS traded hands as buyers rushed in for a slice of the Peerplays pie. The future for this chart is unwritten but it will defiantly be an interesting 11 days in the lead up to the snapshot period.

It is interesting to view the volume trade between NXT and BTS in this initial period; even though BTS traded 200 Million shares in 24 hours; comparatively NXT traded ~30 Million although managed to obtain a higher percentage gain

During the snapshot; holders of BTS are likely to sit on their hands as it is a random time frame during that period. Within that snapshot window to be sure of your shares will being counted for the sharedrop prospective owners will need to have obtained their shares before the snapshot period commences and hold those shares throughout the whole time frame.

Hypothetical comparison


Out of interest i thought it might be interesting to see what the price of Bitshares would look like if it was to have the same percentage run up as NXT before the snapshot period started.

The results where a BTS price of 3814 Satoshi's.

It might seem out of reach looking at the current price; but looking at the previous charts i'm sure a lot of NXT holders were thinking they could snag a bargain on a pull back as well; only to see the price rocket away from them.

TL;DR

With all the recent development's happening in the Bitshares space at the moment and some sort of announcement that has Stan bursting at the seems to release; i'm sure a lot of people will be using the Peerplays sharedrop as a bonus for being well placed for a bright future.

If you are looking to get involved with the Peerplays sharedrop make sure you have purchased your BTS by the 1st of September and have it stored in the Bitshares Lite wallet, OpenLedger Web Wallet or Freedom Ledger wallet as there has not been official announcements from the exchanges that they will honor this sharedrop.

For more information on Peerplays; check out the Peerplays Website or the Announcement on Steemit

For more information on Ardor; check out the ANN

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So what happens when Steemit announces a sharedrop on BTS? ;)

my mind explodes :) would be great to see; although Steem has given a lot to Bitshares without even trying; all developments on Steem are benefit to Bitshares and any other Graphene based currency!

Steemit is giving back indirectly by raising awareness of the Bitshares platform and making a number of the Bitshares core development team very wealthy. It will be interesting to see what sort direct benefits Steemit will provide to Bitshares, and whether the two platforms will formally collaborate. I could see the Bitshares DEX integrating nicely into the Steemit DEX and bringing bitAssets all under one platform. It would give all Steemit members access to a plethora of investment options - bitGOLD, bitSILVER, bitCNY etc. Really, the two platforms could merge and create this uber crypto social economy that would be unlike anything the world has seen...

Steem would not exist today if it weren't for bitshares, at least not in its current form. Bitshares was the initial experiment, which included dpos, bitusd (frontrunner to smd), and later, graphene. Many of the technological breakthroughs in steem can be directly attributable to lessons learned from bitshares.

You got the key point!

Thank you for actually writing a substantiated post. Getting tired of clicking on intriguing headlines only to find a link elsewhere with nothing really written here for the Steemit audience. Definitely following this account!

Cheers mate; thank you :)

Apparently I'm now being stalked by someone who downvoted my above comment to you. I encountered this person in the comment thread of another post. I had no engagement with him/her at all! But he/she began downvoting everyone who participated in the thread, and now has apparently stalked me to other posts. I'm fairly new here - any advice on how to handle something like this?

he also seems to be a serial downvote'r so do not take their actions personally

https://steemd.com/@vishal1

Okay, thanks both

The NXT snapshot period is an interesting proposition. As I was investing in NXT, Steem took off. After a small investment to discover more about Steem, I used some of my NXT profits to Power Up more SP! Why? Steemit is happening now and the social media factor was too compelling. NXT and Ardor may be great too but that will take time to fully realize.

It's a very interesting time in crypto right now that reminds me of the dotcom boom of the late 90's.

Thanks a lot for making the comparison. I think BTS's rise has been more modest because Ardor is part of an entire overhaul and repositioning of NXT: they're going after a market for "custom blockchains" (child chains) with Ardor-Nxt serving as the parent. The sharedrop adds value, certainly, but it doesn't fire up the imagination like the "New NXT!" has done.

Your comparison is valid in that BTS owners will have to hold their coins in their off-exchange wallets in order to guarantee their share of the shares, but the dynamics are different because Peerplays is selecting a random blocktime for the whole thing. Ardor, in contrast, is using a series of hour-by-hour snapshots over the entire distribution period.

The random-snapshot part makes the sharedrop a gamble, with odds. (For example, people who send their Bitshares to an exchange as of one day before the period ends have a ~93% chance of getting shares.) True, risk-averse folks will hold on until the period ends - but people who don't mind taking a little risk, won't.

From a pure handicapper's perspective, the gamble model suggests that BTS will peak on August 1st and slowly decline afterwards to reflect the diminishing probability of qualifying.

Of course, the market ain't rational in that way - so who knows what'll happen ;) It'll certainly be interesting to see how much of an effect that FOMO has!

very well stated i also think a peak will emerge at the dirst of sept bit i think the tapering off will be more moderate as you suggested it is a random point in time where NXT you can still buy in now and hold although will have a lesser percentage than if holding the whole time. Peerplays approch does not have this luxury which is part of the reason i think a sell off will be more subdued. Will be intresting to watch both play out.
Thanks for the comment :)

Thanks yourself! You're right; I should have factored in risk aversion more fully.

Wait..So I have an open ledger wallet and that will work correctly? Or do I need the smartcoins wallet too?

The Open Ledger wallet should work; at least I hope it works because I have my socked-away Bishares there!

peerplays is sick interesting as a potential disruptor of pokerstars/FTP (and one thats legal)... if they ever get a poker client going i think i might come out of poker-world retirement to get in on the ground floor as an affiliate.

IDK if poker is in the cards though (get it get it) ... as its harder to provide a provably fair game than typical casino games...

Thank you for the analysis and thoughts on the matter. I'll also be following it closely as the months go by. Namaste :)

Great post with thorough analysis, thanks!

So, the gist is - buy BTS on OpenLedger before September the 1st and hold them until September 16th. 393% is a nice number :)

good post @steempower !
i have the two eyes on both 8]

Excellent analysis and comparison. Thx.
I participate in the program NXT (Ardor) sharedrop. Hope all goes well....

wow amazing post you and very good

It is a brilliant idea to compare the two. Thank you.

Bitshares was the mother to Steemit. Full poer ahead. I think Steemit will be huge

I picked up a couple hundred NXT for interest sake but have been too distracted to really look into what ARDOR is going to do. The Peerplay this hasnt even been on my radar but will have a look now. Thank you for the post.

Good stuff and analysis

Good points in this article. I was about to post a similair post. Though prices might seam inflated for now I don't think they will look like this 2, 3 years from now. Besides coinmarketcap.com there is: https://www.coincheckup.com For a complete crypto analysis on every single tradable crypto out there.

"The results where a BTS price of 3814 Satoshi's."

That was a "normal" a year ago and bts had nothing to do with current bts...So 3814 Satoshi's to me doesn't sound anything special... I hope bts soon be 7000 Satoshi's and this to be the new "normal".

I really enjoyed your post!

Am I missing something with BTS? I own some, but it's supply is constantly being diluted and I'm curious where some members are getting the notion that it's going to skyrocket in price. I know how it underlies a lot of different ideas, but if you constantly dilute shares, it doesn't matter how many good ideas you come up with - the value will fall.

So can anyone address this because I don't get the feeling people are looking at the supply constantly increasing and realizing how that's going to affect the price long term. Stated in another way, a smart investor wouldn't buy stock in a company that constantly dilutes their shares because it negatively impacts him.

I was writing you a reply and it turned out to be massive. I added some to it and made it a post. Hope you enjoy it https://steemit.com/bitshares/@steempower/vesting-bitshares-in-short-supply-social-contract-near-completion-the-history-and-the-end-of-an-era

Personally, BTS or Satoshis are the most valuable... ;D

Yeah loving Peerplays, i even put them in my article when there was ICO for it

Wow!
I like this. :-)