Bitcoin Cash Doubles Again To $2350, #2 Mkt Cap - Steem Drops to $.83, Bitcoin Slides To $5700
I am never disappointed by how fast things can change in the cryptocurrency world. If you take a nap, you could miss the changing of the entire industry's unit of account. (IMPORTANT UPDATE AT BOTTOM)
I've been jibber-jabbering about how Bitcoin is way past its fundamentals at this point, isn't that great to transact in with $9 fees, and all-around was cruising for a bruising. This was the worst possible time to do something the market might not like, such as finally make your intentions to reject the 2x in Segwit2x public.
I don't see Bitcoin Cash as the best option technically (others such as Monero seem superior), but it's got the name recognition and a lot of familiarity.
It would seem, for the moment, that the market feels this is good enough to warrant getting out of Bitcoin and into the hot new thing.
Unfortunately for a lot of crypto-enthusiasts, and Steemians in particular, this is coming at the cost of both Bitcoin and, it would seem, Steem. The chart looks much worse when you consider the rapid drop in the value of the denominator (Bitcoin):
Bitcoin, I think, is screwed. It could easily fall to $2000 and still have had a good year, which means given the fundamental problems it faces, it could drop to $500. Or it could go right back up and break $10,000, there's really no way to be sure.
I can't tell you what to do with your Bitcoin Cash. Normally you could take a profit on a trade like this, but the problem is the item you'd be trading into (Bitcoin) is crashing. So, you're not only trying to time a top, but also catch a falling knife with Bitcoin...it's a tough situation. I'm holding mine for now...just like the last couple of months.
__IMPORTANT UPDATE: I got cold feet when I saw one trade move BCH from .425 to .400 BTC. I DUMPED. Do what you will with that info, this market is moving FAST!
If you have any additions or errata for this post, please let me know! I will see that they are voted to the top of the comments, and will make the appropriate edits (if possible).
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I don't know how much stock you put in technical analysis, specifically Elliott waves/fractal/fibonacci, but in my experience it is much more accurate than speculating on fundamentals. Price seems to be, on the whole, a reflection of collective sentiment, not news. The most enlightening perspectives in this area I have found on Steemit have come from @haejin. He pinpointed a BCH target of over $1000 a couple weeks ago when it was around $300. Longer term, $4500. However, this doesn't necessarily signal the death of Bitcoin, which has such a strong "network effect" and memetic influence in the mass consciousness that it will likely be around for a *long * time to come. That being said, there are a couple likely scenarios for BTC, with the more probable being that last night was the "bottom" of perhaps one last rally before a major correction is due, down to anywhere from $5000-$2000 or lower. Again, when that occurs, it doesn't mean BTC will die, just retrace.
It also doesn't signal the death of STEEM, which shows very bullish sentiment and could easily surpass $3, and even $10 into 2018. I am also very bullish on altcoins that have a lot of utility, decentralization, and room to grow such as BTS and XVG. BCH is a decent coin, and there are definitely good cases being made that it follows the original Nakamoto intention and whitepaper much more closely than "BTC" does. However, as you stated, there are plenty of altcoins that seem more desirable than BCH. One of the most frustrating, but also intriguing aspect of markets is they do not reflect logic or rationality per se, but a combination of the irrational and rational natures of humankind. We are walking, talking paradoxes!
P.S. I was also lucky to be awake when this was happening, discerned that it was potentially a short-term "bottom" for BTC, was astonished seeing $0.80 STEEM, and snagged some as quick as I could! As unlikely as it may seem, the highest probability is for STEEM to rally to at least the $1.30 range by the end of November, in my view. If BTC heads towards ground zero though, all bets are off! Never a dull moment in crypto! :D
Thanks for a top-notch comment.
"Price seems to be, on the whole, a reflection of collective sentiment, not news."
I definitely think you are right here, although that has been a bitter pill a long time in swallowing. I will check out his analysis.
" major correction is due, down to anywhere from $5000-$2000 or lower. "
Kind of what I'm expecting, but I wasn't expecting it to go straight up from the Bitcoin Cash fork, either...
"STEEM, which shows very bullish sentiment and could easily surpass $3, and even $10 into 2018."
I sure hope so...I see a lot of selling pressure from constant cash-outs and relatively little reason to buy a lot of Steem unless you want to vote it out to other people or delegate it for charity or profit. Obviously I have a fair bit so I hope it goes up.
"BTS and XVG."
I can't comment on XVG but the only reason I'm not in BTS after the delisting drop is because my argument is mostly fundamentals...
"One of the most frustrating, but also intriguing aspect of markets is they do not reflect logic or rationality per se, but a combination of the irrational and rational natures of humankind. We are walking, talking paradoxes!"
"Never a dull moment in crypto! :D"
QFT.
Thanks again for the link to @haejin. I have several hours of trading material to review and vet. Looks very interesting.
I think Bitcoin sealed its fate with the cancellation of Segwit2X.
It basically solidified it's position as an asset, internet gold, rather than a monetary system that was originally intended by Satoshi.
I'm expecting BCH to overtake BTC soon here. Although, I think BCH isn't much better than BTC anyway. The reason it's making these gains is because of the Bitcoin name. There are far better altcoins in terms of fees and transaction times. -_-
Perhaps some Steemers are throwing a lot of their Steem into conversion to BCH to make some money. That could be an explanation for the decrease, imo.
"Although, I think BCH isn't much better than BTC anyway. The reason it's making these gains is because of the Bitcoin name. There are far better altcoins in terms of fees and transaction times. -_-"
I totally agree. I have no idea how to reconcile this with my desire to invest on fundamentals rather than hype.
I saw this train-wreck coming, but I have no idea what the market will choose when it gets tired of the Bitcoin name. It will get savvy enough, eventually, that it no longer must have the "Ford Model-T" of crypto.
The market cap on these things can go to almost zero overnight; there's no assets or income.
Agreed. With all the new technology it's only a matter of time. There's a few cryptos with no fees and near instant transaction times. I've been putting a lot of investment towards BitShares and IOTA.
Dash also has a pretty bright future mainly because of their marketing. They invest something like a million dollars a month in projects that help spread Dash. Since they started doing this the value has skyrocketed. I'm not too sure on the fees and scalability of it though. Essentially it isn't too much different from BTC/BCH as far as I know.
I would be extremely surprised if bitcoin cash ever overtook BTC in unit price. Given that there are zero-merchants using BCH, there is no reason to want this except as a speculative asset. As you said yourself, there are plenty of altcoins which are superior technically. Yet, network effects are king. Many merchants rely on Bitpay for crypto-currency payments. Although Bitcoin is kind of too big to be redesigned and thus lacking innovations that require hard-forks, the greatest cryptographers work on the "Core" version of Bitcoin. The most trusted wallet developers work on bitcoin-core.
That will be the only thing holding bitcoin up really, the merchants and real life adoptions.
This is the surest thing I would have done have I had much STEEM saving on here when the BCH price began to rise. But alas I am just a Minnow.
People will be returning to their favorite alts anyway the moment this reaches a dead-end point. So STEEM price will bounce back again making its current price higher.
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According to hash power the miners have just chose Bitcoin Cash. I think Bitcoin Cash is the new Bitcoin if this trend holds.
My understanding is that the difficulty adjustment may be changed on the 13th, which would result in change to mining RoI. The real test will be the hash power after that change.
The last time we saw the hash-power flip, it followed the RoI instantly, each time.
Thank you for stopping in!
Bitcoin is taking a long overdue breather, I'm unsure the best long term alternative is BC cash though. More Steem anyone?
Unfortunately, Steem has not been performing so well for me. Even with all the blogging work I do, the RoI not great compared to buying random top coins.
I remain hopeful that Jerry's budget proposal could turn things around, like Dash!
Yes I presume we are all in the same boat here.
Still confident that its just a waiting game, although Jerry's proposals could speed things a lot a bit :)
itll do better
Crazy! Since I woke up an hour ago BCH hast lost almost 1k$ per Unit and BTC rose from 5500$ to 6600$ again :D What a start in a day!
Btw. - Seeing you in todays SPL freeroll again?
It was definitely a crazy day. I'm glad I got nervous and dumped as I edited in above!
"- Seeing you in todays SPL freeroll again?"
I'm late here, but I played Sunday! We had a new record, 55 players. I got 7th.
Yeah, total crazy. That's where a stable mindset comes into play ;) The same goes for poker!
7th is great - I busted as like 40th with JJ all-in preflop vs. AQo. The A fell on the river! But that happens :)
Hopefully we will se 100 players soon :)
This is nuts for sure, but in approx 15 hours BCH difficulty will rise + %400 for miners https://fork.lol/pow/retarget and they'll switch back to BTC. Will this slow the pump? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'm thinking..yes, I guess :/
I think it probably will, yes. That or basic math/ physics. This is an insane pump.
Note my edit where I got cold feet after seeing it drop .425 to .400 in one update/trade. I dumped.
Yup - and on what was supposed to be a relaxing Sunday :/
that's an interesting point. though the question is how did they reached the decision to mine BCH !
Just more profitable at the time I suppose.
I found a pastebin post with some controversies answering why and what might been behind the switching - not able to find it now. Will share as soon as I can it find. I thought the same as you but after reading the pastebin post I am confused as to believe in the conspiracy theory or not
Why is it going up 400% from what level? What does it mean?
Maybe coz every miner, his grandma and dog have jumped on the BCH mining bandwagon and the network needs to stabilise. "What does it mean?" ... Stable block/confirmation times for ? time.
cryptoconfused.com !! I thought the story went - when Bitcoin goes up, altcoins go down and when Bitcoin goes down altcoins (including steem) go up...
I do wonder if these hyper-extreme swings in crypto coins are damaging its credibility to the 'outside world' ?
"I do wonder if these hyper-extreme swings in crypto coins are damaging its credibility to the 'outside world' ?"
Definitely with some people. I've already heard the refrain that merchants and businesses won't want to deal in it due to volatility.
There's some truth in it, but as long as most of the volatility is upward, we're going to be short on sympathetic victims.
It's not only at the cost of Bitcoin and Steem, but it's at the cost of almost every other coin...
A fair point. I simply covered the ones most relevant to my readers.
Well Hot damn! This is exciting news indeed!
I would have missed it had I not been staying up far too late, playing Nethack.
lol i thought you quit that