Gold and bitcoin: Why high fees wont kill btc's valuesteemCreated with Sketch.

in #bitcoin7 years ago

First of all, full disclosure: I am not at all in for high fees or limiting the blocksize to 1MB. Rather I think BTC will do the most good being cheap and accessible for everyone. 

Digital gold

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With that out of the way I am going to make an interesting comparison between bitcoin and gold. Gold is the asset bitcoin has been most often compared against. Its a very interesting comparison, especially now that BTC has been experiencing network backlogs and high transaction fees.

With a ~7.5 trillion $ marketcap, you'd be a fool to say gold is not a valuable asset. Does this mean gold also has value as currency/money? No. I'm sure you can imagine how hard it would be to pay for your groceries in gold. This does not make gold worthless, but rather not a practical form of currency.

Golds inability to effectively function as currency is why people came up with paper-notes. These worthless pieces of paper was essentially a IOU saying it could be exchanged for a certain amount of gold, thus giving it value. In a sense you could say, gold is the blockchain and paper-notes is the "layer2" solution. 

Using paper to transfer value denominated in gold did not devalue the gold, rather it made it MORE valuable. In the same way BTC does not need to be both a store of value and a common medium of transaction. More on this later.

FIAT - "Trustmoney"

Some decades later and virtually everyone recognized papercurrency as money, it had value. If you gave me a paper backed by 1oz gold, I'd know I can purchase 1oz gold worth of stuff. As we all know, this system has gradually been debased and now we have only FIAT currencies. 

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FIAT is a word derived from latin, meaning "it shall be". This is a way of saying; "this is money and has value because we say so!", we being various governments. 

Over time people have gotten so used to these papernotes and trustbased systems that they no longer care if the money has real value, or not. What matters is that the next person is willing to accept the currency at face value and so on. You could say that money has been made comfortable and everyone just trusts the system its based upon (basically trust). The intrinsic value of one dollar is the same as toiletpaper with print (it's not even soft..).

Bitcoin as a store of value and X as day-to-day currency

I've heard a lot of people saying bitcoin is the "internet of money". I'd make the argument that bitcoin is the internet of gold, or rather, the internet of storing value. Bitcoin is secured by the worlds most powerful network and this network consumes A LOT of power to keep make sure our BTC is safe. Thus meaning each transaction requires a lot of resources in order to be validated and secure. With the PoW system, it's hard to envision a network that is supersecure , cheap AND fast. Maybe bitcoin should not be currency (yes, I know the whitepaper), but rather a store of value.

As a store of value bitcoin holds a lot of improvements over todays "golden standard", gold. Here's a list of the first few I can think of.

- Cheap transfer for large sums

- You can secure it yourself, no counterparty

- Noone can seize your coins

- No inflation after 21m

- Its digital, easily integrated effectively and transparently with layer 2 solutions.

To sum it up, bitcoin does not need to be the best currency to have value. The value might even be the fact that it's NOT the best currency. Dollars work fine for day-to-day transactions, even considering their intrinsic value is zero. In the same sense, other, less secure and faster (more convenient) networks might be the best to do day-to-day transactions.

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I've been predicting that the bitcoin value would shrink due to the growing transaction fees, and I've been quite pessimistic all since December 2016. In retro-perspective ... so far my prediction has failed, but anyway ...

Some things:

  • gold does indeed have some unique properties and use-cases important enough that someone is willing to pay golden prices using it for industrial purposes. Bitcoin is mostly only unique by being first (network effect) and having a well-known trademark.
  • gold has been around for a very long time, and has also been used as a payment vector for a very long time, bitcoins for some few years. It's pretty safe to assume gold will still be a relevant store of value a decade for now, it's not safe at all to assume bitcoin will be relevant a decade for now.
  • if another cryptocurrency outperforms Bitcoin and a sufficient amount of people and businesses starts using it as a payment system, then Bitcoin will lose it's network effect. The coin value can only fall from there.
  • gold probably gained most of it's current value by being used as a payments system. Bitcoin gained it's value for it's promise to become a useful payments system.

I do not buy the "bitcoin as a store of value"-proposition. I signed up for low-friction, fast payments. That was the value proposition some years ago, today Bitcoin transactions are slow and expensive.

I'm totally aware that blockchains does not scale forever, it's all fine to put coffee-size-transactions on the blockchain as long as the network is small and only used by nerds, but in the long run it can't work out. We do need payments on second-layers. Such a second-layer (like lightning) will needs years to roll out, and it will need to compete not only with on-chain transactions but also with other crypto-currencies. To keep Bitcoin great and valuable, we also need a block size increase urgently. segwit2x for the win!

It's for sure going to be very interesting going forward. When I joined it was to earn some money and then I started learning about it. I 110% agree that everyone would be best off if btc fixes it scaling issue.

I mainly use bitcoin as a way of investing without limits, so naturally im welcomming the segwit2x with open arms. Nothing would make me happier than not having to think about what alt to replace my bitcoins with :)

I think that "bitcoin as a store of value" is dependant on layer 2 solutions working properly sometime in the future, for sure. If those layer 2 solutions turn out to be lighting or some other blockchain/token integrating, should not matter too much.

Bitcoin has also shown to be very resilient to change (maybe too resilient), this is a great plus for a store of value as you'd want predictability long term. We've seen that this is still a bigger questionmark for alts, ETH hardfork and the DAO.

I'd like to see blockchains competing to integrate with bitcoin instead of replacing it :)

ofc the gold arguement is a little bit broken as gold ALSO has some intrinsic value, being pretty, electronics etc. I do think that gold will become less valuable as a store of value once there exsists better/cheaper alternatives. Transporting and securing gold is a big headache.

Thanks for the comment, you bring up some good points!
There's always a lot of things one forgets to consider.

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