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RE: Gold and bitcoin: Why high fees wont kill btc's value

in #bitcoin7 years ago

I've been predicting that the bitcoin value would shrink due to the growing transaction fees, and I've been quite pessimistic all since December 2016. In retro-perspective ... so far my prediction has failed, but anyway ...

Some things:

  • gold does indeed have some unique properties and use-cases important enough that someone is willing to pay golden prices using it for industrial purposes. Bitcoin is mostly only unique by being first (network effect) and having a well-known trademark.
  • gold has been around for a very long time, and has also been used as a payment vector for a very long time, bitcoins for some few years. It's pretty safe to assume gold will still be a relevant store of value a decade for now, it's not safe at all to assume bitcoin will be relevant a decade for now.
  • if another cryptocurrency outperforms Bitcoin and a sufficient amount of people and businesses starts using it as a payment system, then Bitcoin will lose it's network effect. The coin value can only fall from there.
  • gold probably gained most of it's current value by being used as a payments system. Bitcoin gained it's value for it's promise to become a useful payments system.

I do not buy the "bitcoin as a store of value"-proposition. I signed up for low-friction, fast payments. That was the value proposition some years ago, today Bitcoin transactions are slow and expensive.

I'm totally aware that blockchains does not scale forever, it's all fine to put coffee-size-transactions on the blockchain as long as the network is small and only used by nerds, but in the long run it can't work out. We do need payments on second-layers. Such a second-layer (like lightning) will needs years to roll out, and it will need to compete not only with on-chain transactions but also with other crypto-currencies. To keep Bitcoin great and valuable, we also need a block size increase urgently. segwit2x for the win!

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It's for sure going to be very interesting going forward. When I joined it was to earn some money and then I started learning about it. I 110% agree that everyone would be best off if btc fixes it scaling issue.

I mainly use bitcoin as a way of investing without limits, so naturally im welcomming the segwit2x with open arms. Nothing would make me happier than not having to think about what alt to replace my bitcoins with :)

I think that "bitcoin as a store of value" is dependant on layer 2 solutions working properly sometime in the future, for sure. If those layer 2 solutions turn out to be lighting or some other blockchain/token integrating, should not matter too much.

Bitcoin has also shown to be very resilient to change (maybe too resilient), this is a great plus for a store of value as you'd want predictability long term. We've seen that this is still a bigger questionmark for alts, ETH hardfork and the DAO.

I'd like to see blockchains competing to integrate with bitcoin instead of replacing it :)

ofc the gold arguement is a little bit broken as gold ALSO has some intrinsic value, being pretty, electronics etc. I do think that gold will become less valuable as a store of value once there exsists better/cheaper alternatives. Transporting and securing gold is a big headache.

Thanks for the comment, you bring up some good points!
There's always a lot of things one forgets to consider.

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