I'm moderately bearish

in #bitcoin2 months ago

Yes, we are pushing against the red neckline of a head and shoulders reversed pattern. And yes, if we break this neckline with force then $9k is our next target. And yes, then we'll then have also broken out of the downsloping trend line. And yes, the OBV seems to be breaking out too on the daily chart.

But it hasn't happened yet.

We are approaching a double BB resistance level which might prove tough to break. In addition, the daily stochastics are moving up rapidly (the weekly's are still low and the monthly's somewhere in the middle).

The lower Beam Band provides good support, but at $5k.

But most of all, this is not the big break out of the downtrend. This is a fairly predictable move up towards resistance levels. I think we're going down and I've bought a first put to protect my position. Maybe we stumple a bit higher still, even above $8k. Without any large increase in volume it still can't be the one. So, that will be a good time to buy more puts.

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Great Analysis 👍

Thanks for your update.
If there are few sellers, not much volume is needed to push the price to the upside. Right?
I think Hodlers have taken over and this gives Bitcoin price stability against the downside. So either the price remains stable or it goes to the upside. This is what I see in the last week.

Yes, you would think so. The books say that a breakout, in order to be convincing, should be of a decent size and accompanied by a clear increase in volume. The idea is, I guess, that buyers must hurry en masse to buy the item at this price. True, for every buyer there is a seller, but still, that's what the theory states. Often, I find this to be correct.

In April 2019 we had one.

And I still think we had one in October, although that one didn't work out.

Now, I'm still not sure, although it's definitely starting to look better.

That said, I believe we're going to see a lot of new money flowing in. It's still a tiny minority that hold's bitcoin.

Thanks for your reply!

I agree with you, we need some more volume here but, it is starting to be exciting :-).
You should try to post at steemleo (https://www.steemleo.com/), there are many people interested on your thoughts as myself ;-)

Oh thanks, I'll have a look. Prices shot through the neckline just about the same time I posted my little write-up.