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RE: Bitcoin will hit $40k within the next 5 years, even if it never catches on as a form of payment
I think thats the use case bitcoin core devs are targeting. Bitcoin will be used for a relatively small number of large payments, acting as a settlement reserve currency (similar to gold before FIAT).
However, with off chain transactions and the lightning network small transactions will still be possible (with low fees), but BTC will most be held as a store of value.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong!
Nope I think you are spot on. That is how I see things playing out as well.