Bitcoin - Searching for the Bottom
I believe the next few months are going to be a wild ride for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, here is what I think.
- The SEC's decision on the proposed VanEck / SolidX ETF is postponed
- September 30th
- Futures expiration dates: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to launch their Bitcoin platform Bakkt
- November 2018, pending approval from the CFTC
What do all the bullet points have in common? Wall Street, institutional money, and easier on-ramps for the less technical retail investors who have not entered into the space yet.
In my opinion, the CFTC is much more willing to jump on board with these new markets, specifically Bitcoin. This was indicated during the meetings in Washington over the last few months that included members of the CFTC. The SEC has been dragging their feet for years on the ETF matter. It's going to get approved eventually, but it's going to happen when most convenient (manipulated). Futures were hyped causing the bubble run-up to 20k, which we've obviously seen Bitcoin shorted to hell and back. We're closing in on the bottom now and here's how I feel the next few months may play out.
Support holds again at 6k as negative news about the ETF calms down (I've been bullish on 6k for awhile now). Over the last 24 hours we've seen another spike as futures expire, and we'll have another small run-up over the next month as hype builds towards a September approval. Remember, September 19th (next futures expiration) and September 30th (ETF decision). There will be negative news again killing any hype about the proposed ETF in-line with the expiration to cause some extra hurt. I think here is where we'll see how strong 6k actually is or we'll finally see the 5k the big time investors have been longing for.
Post September, I feel there may finally be a light at the end of the tunnel as we approach whatever date the SEC pushes the ETF off again to and ICE pending approval for their new platform Bakkt in November (I believe the CFTC will approve). Soon, it's going to be a race to first in market. If there is any insider information going on, a CFTC approval of Bakkt may finally force the SEC hands as well.
The truth is somewhere in the pudding.