I'm currently following-up from my previous post, where I assumed we were, at that time, doing the first A subwave out of the broader corrective wave 2, assuming we indeed starting moving impulsively up. I will stand by the bullish case until we visit again the mid 7000s and/or until there is very strong sell-off volume on the daily/12hr/6hr/4hr. Next few days, I also intend to do a quick TA on the broader scenario to present where I stand. As for now, I am working in the reactive wave 2.
I am taking 2 main scenarios into account, and I'll start with the alternative one, because I like to get it out of the way :P - we can assume the correction has finished, and we are currently working on a new impulsive wave up. The annotations in the chart are Intermediate - Red, with the 1-2-3-4-5 being hypothetical. What I don't like is that in this case we seem to have ended Wave 1, however it fell short of the previous Wave 1 of larger degree (teal). I expect a strong resistance there, thus it would leave room only for Wave 3 to bounce hard, however the Wave 4 can't retrace into Wave 1, so we'd be left with a structure of fading momentum, incompatible with the bullish momentum that it should represent.
My main scenario is that we are not yet finished correcting. All other annotations on the chart belong to this scenario. Subwave (iii) from my previous chart did indeed hold, and wave (a) retraced all the way to the 0.5 fib level. However, it did not test it enough, and that is another factor that leads me to consider the correction is not yet over. Wave (b) retraced convincingly up to the 0.786 fib level, which makes it pretty legit. I had a bit of trouble playing it, since I also had a channel drawn, and was very reluctant to long it up to the golden pocket or the 0.786. And I missed the breakout because I had some issues moving some BTC from StrongCoin to my Ledger, as it didn't recognize my passphrase anymore (having done a transaction with the EXACT passphrase only 2 days ago!).
Guys, NEVER EVER USE A HOT WALLET FOR YOUR MAIN CRYPTO HOLDINGS!! (if anybody's curious, I solved it by importing the private key into Blockchain.info, and using that to transfer my cryptoassets)
As I stand now, I expect us to slowly drop AT LEAST toward the 0.5 fib retracement of the whole correction, with bounces possibly on the 0.236 and 0.382 levels. I'm most tempted to believe Wave (c) will go down to the Golden Pocket (where it would also intersect the linear trendline I have been using for some time), but I will just play it conservatively, tracking it as much as I can, and setting orders for the 0.5 fib if I need to go afk.
Either way, in a few days (or just a few dozen hours if alternative count is the real one), I expect us to start heavily testing the 9k-is resitances, and hopefully breaking them. I intend to ladder into a larger long position once 9.2k breakout is confirmed. Will post an update once this correction is over.