I cannot properly express my appreciation of your thoughtful and substantive reply, but neither can I agree that it addresses my central point: that BTC is unlikely to follow a calculable pattern in this world. Too many factors simply can't be reckoned with the relatively short history that has to date revealed impactors on BTC value, and they range from butterfly wings of little import to economic events that will result from the uncharted territory we are in with QE and negative interest rates potentially existential to BTC.

Consider population dynamics in Germany. Then consider how new impacts on German population affected it in the early 20th Century. Those impacts certainly were predictable, but the information enabling accurate predictions wasn't available to relevant parties at the time. We can look back now and say 'Well, that did this, and this did that. Perfectly within our models.' But prior to this and that those actors weren't part of the models, and those impacts weren't predicted, or even predictable. Today our models might include this and that, but I reckon it hubris to claim certainty, because no end of other impactors remain potential, and nominal to completely BTFO predictions.

It's nearly certain that various events will add influences to the system that is currently modeled, and that will dramatically change the results in unforseeable ways. Whether that's a new volcano in Iceland or Trump losing 2020 doesn't even matter. People are incapable of reckoning chaotic factors due to the very frictions of perception you well elucidated. In ancient systems, such as weather, long history enables us to reckon which factors are relevant. As you note weather is chaotic locally, but over long spans and wider regions it's relatively stable.

Predicting it, even with the massive amount of data we've collected, remains tentative still. It's noteworthy that massive political unrest over exactly predicting weather is ongoing today, with riots in Chile to secret government programs in Chinxui resulting from that disagreement. Ten years of BTC simply isn't nominal to incorporate such butterflies that might twist up it's digits like a tornado.

Like I said, you could end up right, but I'd be really surprised if events that have not affected BTC price, and thus are not influencing it's performance presently, don't before the end of 2020.

All that being said, I do wish you the best of luck. I think you need it in this endeavor.

Thanks!