Dogs of the Dow... for crypto ?

in #bitcoin6 years ago (edited)

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I was thinking about the Dogs of the Dow the other day and it got me thinking, would something like that work for crypto ? I think it probably could.

For anyone who doesn't know the concept, I'll explain briefly.

The Dogs of the Dow is a long term investment strategy whereby every year you buy 10 of the most promising Dow Jones Industrial Average companies and hold them for a year. The selection criteria is quite simple, it's just the 10 companies that have the highest dividend to share ratio, ie which ones are paying the best dividends as a percentage of their share price.

Apparently it's been tested from today back to the 1920's and its worked every year... It's not important for this topic, but if you want to read more about the actual system then you can find it through this link here (no affiliation to me).

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So anyway, this isn't actually about the DotD but a similar system I remember that works on the London FTSE 100 index of the 100 largest companies in the UK (it was just the DotD that reminded me lol).

This system is very similar, pick 10 of the most likely to perform stocks and hold them for a year. In this case, the 10 stocks chosen are the 10 most recent stock to be added to the index.

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Why the 10 most recent companies to make the index ? Well it means that those 10 companies have outperformed (or increased capitalisation) over 10 companies that were already in the index and failing, so the 10 new companies must be on the way up.

Now I've never tried this system myself so I can't personally attest to it, but I can see how it's supposed to work and probably does well. In any case, it made me think that maybe a similar system would work for crypto, as new crypto are popping up every single day !

For the record, I don't trade in crypto, never have and probably never will, so this is just an intellectual exercise for me, but someone clever might be able to make something of it. This in no way constitutes financial advice, so if you do it and it loses money, don't blame me....

So, onto the theory -

You find a crypto exchange that lists a lot of coins (like the Dow or the FTSE lists companies). You pick the last 10 coins to be added to the exchange, for the reason that their market capitalisation must have increased to a value where they are now big enough to be listed, and therefore are likely to increase in price further.

Because of the fast pace of new crypto issues, you could have a system modifier to keep it current. Every month for example, you could pick the next 2 coins or so to be listed, and drop 2 of the lowest performing coins from the 10 coins that you picked already. That way you would be constantly 'weeding out' the duds and concentrating on the higher earners.

This is pretty much a stock portfolio technique to grow capital over long periods, but I don't see how it wouldn't work with crypto instead of shares. Then again, I know nothing about crypto so may be missing something here..

Let me know what you think anyway, and if you manage to become a millionaire out of it then chuck a few Steem points my way next year :-)

100% of any money made from this post will be donated to a Steemit charity group or worthy cause.

Header image credit : discovermagazine.com via Google image search, no affiliation.
Ftse image : investorsbuz.com via Google image search, no affiliation.

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I don't think that would work, because the performance criteria on the stocks is based on a fundamental value: highest dividend to share ratio

Cryptocurrencies don't have this, and so far, they are only speculative assets.

Even those that have good use cases (like Ethereum, Steem, Bitcoin) are still too limited.

New cryptocurrencies pop up every day, and lots of them are added and removed from the exchanges very often.

This could work if we had a standard index, wich would probably have criptocurrencies with strong fundamentals.

Coinbase is starting a Index fund, wich if i remember correctly, would have around 60% in BTC, and the other 40% split between LTC, BCH and DASH(?)(don't remember wich was the 4th).

Also, there is this indexes that maybe could be used for that.

But forget about new cryptos added to exchanges. Most of the new coins that pop up have a price action of huge pump right after launch, followed but the price tanking tramendously, and sticking to that level for a very very long time (check most of the coins outside the top 100 on coinmarket cap and you will see the pattern)

thanks for the input, much appreciated. I wasn't sure what the criteria was for a coin being listed on an exchange, I assumed that they would only be considered if they were growing, and stable (that's how I'd do it anyway).

I see what you mean about most of them though, they all have the same 'shark tooth' pattern. Anyhow, it was just an idea that maybe someone with more knowledge could look into it. There seems to be a lot of very inventive and innovative people in the crypto market :-)

Depending on the exchange, it's not that hard to get a coin to be listed.

Bigger ones, like Coinbase, or Bittrex, might have some more "hard" criteria, but there is a lot of exchanges that trade anything.

When you have some time, take a look at the coins traded at Cointopia, Yobit, HitBTC and other smaller ones. You will be surprised of how many low volume coins are listed on these.

BTW, that link to MVIS indexes might be a start...

There is a lot of indexes there, with 5, 10, 25, 100, small-cap, medium-cap, high-cap...

Its a really interesting index. I need to take some time to dig through it, but there might be something good there.

Thanks, I'll have a closer look. As I said my blog post, it's not for me as I don't really understand a lot of the crypto stuff, but I thought the idea might be useful for someone with a bit more intelligence :-)

I might do something like a paper trade, and see how it goes though, just for fun. I'll post any results on my blog and it might help someone do something for real.

You might be able to do something like this, but it is going to take some work and it is going to be extremely risky. You would essentially have to pick the top Proof of Stake coins and hold them in a wallet on your computer.
You picks would look something like this:
Dash: Return 7.5%
NEO: Return 5.5%
PIVX: Return 4.8%
OK Cash: Return 10%
Nav Coin: Return 5%
Redd Coin: Return 5%

Those are a couple of the higher ones out there. Some of these have thresholds that you have to hit as far as coins owned to start the staking process. But with the market in a bearish cycle, it could be possible to both get these cheap, stake them and see price appreciation all at the same time.

Yeah, sounds reasonable. That link above to the index site is really good as a starting point as well (thanks @phgnomo ), to see what up and coming. I think they update the index monthly as well, so it could be used a modifier to see who is large cap, small cap etc and maybe only go with the large caps. Anything helps to swing the odds in your favour.

TBH I can't wait for the day when mainstream brokers allow you to trade on the crypto indexs, that's when I'll get into it :-)

When the big dogs get in the fight it will certainly be interesting. I am going to make a profound statement and say that this will either have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on the market. The only place that kind of bridges both worlds is Robinhood.

I'm not sure it'll ever happen to be honest, which is a shame. To the big institutions, crypto is just pocket change. I think entire market capitalisation for all crypto is still less than 1% of a single currency like the USD.

No one is going to spend any time milking $1 million a day off suckers in the crypto markets when they're milking $1 billion a day off them in the Forex market.

Pretty much a catch 22, crypto needs big investment by institutions to grow, but they won't invest because it's too small for them to make profit off of.

You never know, in time...

With there investment, they could be making billions because they could wield unimaginable power on the an already volatile market. The real wild card is how the government is going to handle these institutions working in this platform.

maybe once government regulations come in (bad thing) then people will view it as 'safer' and invest more (good thing). Bit of a catch22, can't have the sugar without the salt.

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