VIDEO: EPISODE#4: BITCOIN CRASH FALL TO $1,650 current price $,2504, 10 July 2017

in #bitcoin4 years ago (edited)
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Bitcoin Crash 2017-07-10_8-03-34.jpg

In today's analysis, I am forecasting a Bitcoin Price Crash to around $1,650-$1,700 - a drop of 1/3rd of its current price! The current Bitcoin price, at the time of this writing on 10th July 2017, is $2,509.


Before I start, it is responsible of me to remind you all that as professional traders we ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS use STOP LOSSES. There is no right or wrong in trading. To make money in trading it is ONLY about being in RHYTHM with the market. If you ARE in rhythm great, ride it and milk as much profits as you can before cashing in. If you're OUT OF SYNC with the market, you will have pre-defined your risk BEFORE placing the trade and your stop loss is there to protect you losing a big chunk of your capital. So the question you must ask is is my account growing or not - that is the ONLY right or wrong, any one trade is insignificant.

Ok, so now we have the right mindset (mindset is critical), we can look objectively at the argument for an impending Bitcoin Price Crash. A key factor which I think may cause this a fall is that the miners may not reach agreement on 1st August 2017 as to upscaling the blocksize for Bitcoin.

Let's look at the analysis.
Firstly, we have a trendline which has been following the upward ascent of Bitcoin. At some point this trendline will break, if it does i'm looking to for a short trade setup. Let me explain further my pre-planned trading strategy.

If you watch the video, I explain that we are looking for confirmation of a short entry on the taking out of the most recent minor low (on a daily chart) AND the breaking of the trendline. Our stop wil be placed above the most recent high. Good, we now have done the most important part and have our risk pre-defined:

To have a larger view of the chart, just right click on the chart image and select "View Image"
BitcoinShortSetup 2017-07-10_16-09-36.jpg

In terms of targets, lets look at previous lows and do some fibonacci work. Look left on the chart we see there is price action support at around the $1650 - 1,700 price, an area where buyers and sellers disagreed about price.

Next we use one of my favourite tools Fibonnaci.
Still using only the Daily chart, we look at the bigger picture and we notice the current "Bull Run" started at the Low (marked by a yellow circle on the Chart) which occured around Mar 2017. We measure this range and discover that the 61.8% of this range coincides with the price support around $1,700. the technique we used was price retracement.

To have a larger view of the chart, just right click on the chart image and select "View Image"
Bitcoin Major Range 2017-07-10_16-16-10.jpg

Our next tool in our toolbox is a price extension. Here we take a low and take a high (as shown on the chart an in this case project down). We get another hit at 1.618 around the price of $1,716.

To have a larger view of the chart, just right click on the chart image and select "View Image"
Bitcoin Price Extension 2017-07-10_16-22-35.jpg

Finally, we use the next technique called price symmetry. Here we measure the prior major swings down (shown on the video). The idea is that our hindsight becomes our foresight as we project the same distance from our current near term top. Again, bulls eye on the $1,700 area.

To have a larger view of the chart, just right click on the chart image and select "View Image"
Bitcoin Price Symmetry 2017-07-10_16-20-36.jpg

As always, I give you a RoadMap as a Trading Plan and I have marked entry, stop loss and three targets:

So we now have price action support, fibonacci confirmation and potential a trendline break all indicating for us to go short IF price moves in this direction a confirmation break of our trendline and breaking of lows gets us into this trade with low risk, high reward. We place our stop loss and sitback and let the trade play out. No anxiety attacks. No panic. Cool, calm and collected.

I see good support around $1,650 mark so we can look to book in our profits just before this level.

I am teaching you this as a result of my 10+ years of successfully trading experience in the markets, where I have seen human emotions react and it will never change, as long as we have financial markets - all of this I am sharing with you freely so you may plan your trades and stay calm and in control, whilst others around us are panicking.


Hope this helps.

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Sean Vengan, Cryptotrader and Trading Educator


Great great post again!
Like you say the key factor could be the segwit at 1st of August, can you please tell me what that would mean if they dont agree? Would Bitcoin split? If agreed the price would go up, if not down? What would happen to the cryptomarket if not agreed; would they all lose value?
Thank you for your engagement keep it up :)

Very good question - im not best to answer this but I will offer my opinion. Others feel free to chip your thoughts?

I would say that we can look at what happened to Ethereum. which after implemeneting a hard fork the split created Ethereum Classic, which is now totally independant of Ethereum.

Indecision in any traded market is very often seen as negative and bearish. My view is that inevitably this issue of scaling up with bigger blocksize must and will defintely get resolved as Bitcoin cannot be contained from growing.

There is no doubt in my mind that Bitcoin is set to explode in usage and value in the foreseeable future. However, for now my view is that the miners consensus going forward is split and this could mean a devaluation if a split in Bitcoin occurs. If a split occurs the "winning" Bitcoin will have to once again reestablish itself as it takes an initial loss of confidence hit.

Finally, my view is that Ethereum will rapidly overtake Bitcoin as the No 1 cryptocurrency.

Hope that helps.

Thank you very much for your thoughtfull and long response :)
Okay then lets hope everything works out great.
May I ask for a recommendation for a source where you get your information from? Do you already know how the payment for your site is going to work? Is it going to be pay per view or a monthly subcsription; will you still offer free videos?

Your most welcome.

Sorry, can you please clarify your question " recommendation for a source where you get your information from?", so I may answer you honestly.

My website will provide real trading strategies which I have personally studied, applied and made good money from. Everything I teach I have done myself so reveal the dos and donts, tips, tricks and shortcuts.

In terms of Membership I am still deciding which way to go on that. but the bottom line is for all of this it boils done to more of what you folk want rather than me selling you courses to make me money, which far too many trading educators do.

There is a great deal of material that can be coverred which range from beginner courses to day/swing trading to advanced strategies to risk & money management to discipline and trading psychology etc...

I personally see all of these being covered as they are all ingredients required to be a successful profitable trader.

I hope that helps and answers your question.

What I meant was one ore more websites where you get your information from. In order to get better educated. Great I am looking forward ☺️
Btw I just recommended you here
Best regards @wiedy

Thank you so much my friend. Yes Jerry has a good following so I really appreciate this!

Regarding information/source, I mainly just Google and YouTube, to pick up knowledge each day. It's such a rapidly moving market that there's so much happening.

Too many people are too deep in this and can't get out if your prediction is right. As long as they still believe in this, I would agree that cutting lose now doesn't make sense.

I see fair comment. When you say "too deep in", can you please clarify so I may better understand ?
As an investment, I would consider selling to cash in and then rebuying at a lower price.

When I said too deep it means they could have had bought them at the peak when the price was ticket high. The number one investment rule is don't lose money. Maybe continue to put in money to balance and lower their buying price is a better way out?

I understand now, thank your clarifying.

As a long term investment Bitcoin is a great buy. Im a big fan of Bitcoin sky rocketing in the future. As a speculative trader my perspective sways with the market sentiment.

Each person has to evaluate when to cut their losses, average down or just hold.

Alternatively, i would be looking to hedge my Bitcoin position using Forex if I bought near the tops.

Great video bud!

I see you have went all out for this.

I really wish you the best of luck :)

Your analysis are usually spot on. It was great to see it first hand.

Thank you my friend, I do have a high accuracy rate but seriously if i'm not spot on i really don't care as I have my risk defined and being "wrong" just tells me I need to get back in rhythm with the market.

You always want to "go with the flow" (line of least resistance) as we are just small frys riding on the backs of the "Big Money". Going in the wrong direction helps one to work out that one is simply out of touch and one need to read market sentiment better. As you do this often enough, you develop a feel for the way its going but NEVER get complacent or cocky as the market chews you up and spits you out. Believe me I learnt the hard way but lesson learnt. I wish I had someone to advise me on all these things which no trader talks about why ? because they dont know. They only know how to press buy and sell buttons and then they say they are a trader. Trading is fundamentally 3 skills: mind management, risk & money management and willing to quickly admit when you are wrong. This will keep you out of 90% of trouble and save you a fortune, let alone making you a fortune.

Our community is growing and we now passed 100.

Would be lovely for everyone, as you often do, to share comments, thoughts and opinions - I love to hear anyone and everyones thought process as everyone has great value. Please dont be intimidated that you dont know enough or you will sound stupid. You won't, trading is simply buy and sell if you buy and sell you have an opinion. Lets hear it. I wil always be a student of these markets so I can learn from you all. All I ask is everyone is polite and respectful.

If that's all you ask for, then you are asking for nothing at all.
It cost's nothing to be nice
I do fully agree with you of course that a large amount of people do not read the graphs when they are right so so often.

I find myself day trading using the exact same method as you just used to get my target zones. Only difference is I take into account if the money is short or long. Of course that is much easier to do on an uptrend.

It has been tough going these day's with the extra volatility

Day trading is not for the faint hearted. So hats off to you for doing this.

I do day trade for income and to keep my finger on the pulse but I prefer positional and swing trading as for me its less intensive and I feel more in control. But I do love day traing as well, I just dont tie up too much in my allocated capital here. Cryptos are great to day trade.

Please it would be great i you share your analysis i'd love to learn from you.

Day trading can be a cruel mistress but with the current tech we have and a lot of learning through loss almost anyone can be successful.

I have had to change my mindset from how I react to coins losing value. I no longer emphasis the BTC value and only focus on increasing my share through trade regardless of price. I am putting alot of focus on ANS/LTC/NEOS and recently XVG.

I find by focusing on coins with great long term potential you take a lot of stress out of the dips while making profit in the long run. You also become very familiar with the swings just by the price without need to readjust your calculations.

I would categorize it as long term day trading because I intend to keep my position in above until I have reason not too.

The last 25% I use to bounce around depending on the current gossip just chasing a profit.

Sound advice. Thank you for sharing your real experience and insights.

Interesting post, thanks for sharing. I'm looking for your website launch :)

I'm mostly good at investing, and I realized I suck at trading. Hopefully & thanks to you, I'll learn to get better !!

Thank you believe me we ALL suck at trading. Very few stick at it or dont blow their capital before they learn. Thats why I'm trying to impart wisdom from mistakes I have made and through discipline turned around to success.

Thanks for the info i am just starting with crypto. I need advice i apllyed for a loan in bitcoin with intres rate of 29.50 and if i get it i am planing to invest it cloud mining. Is that smart move?

Im sorry I only have an academic knowledge in cloud mining so I'm not a good source to advise you. Trading and Investing in Cryptos is my aea of expertise.

Thanks, for the answer, anyway if you have some extra coint to invest, this is the link (its not afiliate)