Why Do People Always Forget What Happens When Charts Look Like This?
We've seen this before. Many times. Yet without fail, every time, people try to rationalize why this time is different. It's not.
Even though I'm confident we are in a bubble, I believe that if you bought Bitcoin today and held it for ten years, you'd have a significant gain in 2027. With that said, I think we'll see another opportunity to buy Bitcoin at $500.
When you get into super-bubble territory, you'll start to hear your average person talking about purchasing that item. It may be stocks, Bitcoin, real estate, or roses. Everyone will start to want it, regardless of what "it" is.
PRO TIP - When you hear your Uber drivers, cashiers, and waitresses talk about buying an investment, you had better be selling. This is the point where all the smart money is already in, and there aren't many buyers left.
In the year 1999 and early 2000s, you would hear your average Joe talking about buying tech stocks. That was an indication that the crash was near.
In the US, circa 2007, it became common "knowledge" that real-estate is the best investment you can make. You would hear, prices never go down. It was also common to hear things like you should make money flipping houses. It was time to sell. The crash was near.
I'm beginning to hear average people talking/asking about Bitcoin and even altcoins.
What does that mean? The crash is near.
We are absolutely due for a correction... my guess would be 30-40%... but unlike other speculative bubbles driven by "irrational euphoria," cryptos are a tiny market that's at the edge of mainstreaming. The sheer volume of new money flowing in might take a while to be absorbed... and the supply of BTC is very finite. There can't BE a bunch of IPOs of Bitcoin; there can't BE 5000 new BTC "neighborhoods" built to meet demand.
My question isn't "whether," but "when." I think we may be earlier in the bubble than many people think because the bulge of incoming cash is large and supply is limited. I'm more inclined to think we might have a spectacular crash from $4000 BTC or even $5000 BTC. But who really knows?
I think you have valid points, and have considered those possibilities as well. As I replied to someone else, I don't like to buy inflated assets in hopes they go higher. It's a poor idea that, more often than not, ends in heartache.
On the way up, little by little, I've been trading BTC for other assets that I think are undervalued. For example, silver.
I'm with you on that. "Buy high and sell even higher" in a speculative market is more like Russian roulette than investing. I started taking bits off the table about two weeks ago... "just in case."
Bitcoin was in the top 5 trending searches on Google a few days ago. So yes, ordinary people are talking about Bitcoin, and we shouldn't rationalize the bubble away.
you are probably more right than wrong. On a side note, here in the Northeast US, the real estate bubble is wholly re-inflated again. prices are out of control for shit houses, and everyone and their brother is jumping into the market and trying to flip houses again.
It will probably go up in price further, but nobody knows where the top is. When the bubble bursts, everyone will want out at the same time. In order to sell, you need a buyer on the other side of the transaction. When everyone wants out, there will be no buyers, and the price will tank.
As for the housing market, unfortunately, it's that way in a lot of places. And the bubbles don't stop with housing. The stock market is in bubble territory, there's a massive bond bubble, a huge auto bubble. Scary times ahead.
I think it's partially because people realize the crazy type of gains that can be made in the
stage, in a ridiculously short amount of time.
But it's mostly because people without any experience or knowledge about trading/ investing are getting pulled into the hype machine of big network buzz.
I can't disagree.
This is great advice. I'm sensing the bubble will be bursting very soon.
I agree 100,000,0000%. I have been getting contacted by all these non technical people who in 2013 though I was weird or crazy when I talked about Bitcoin wanting to get in on that and alt coins. It means the end is near. We all know what kind of pain we felt when Bitcoin went down to $176 in Jan 2015. It was terrible. We all know how we felt when the Steem was down to $0.10. A certain percentage of these new comers will stick around for the next mooning. The rest get washed out. It can be a very painful process.
I completely agree, this run we are on right now is making me very cautious. I have had several people that just a year ago laughed at the idea of buying bitcoin, ask me how they can buy some this past week...that's a signal to me that if we aren't already in a bubble, one is approaching fast. With the amount of money flowing in the bubble may not burst for a good amount of time, but in my opinion a big pullback is in store at some point...when, is always the big question.
Well there was just a bit of a drop...I'm sure this will fight back up a for a little while now. Probably wasn't a big enough drop to scare off the average Joe's just yet.
In today's markets, especially this one... rules may not apply as most are controlled.
However if big boys are jumping in, especially with Ethereum, it may well keep climbing.
Where rakes would you put money these days, under more or less controlled platforms?
7 months ago, I was selling gold to buy crypto. Now I'm reversing that trade. I think gold and silver are highly undervalued. Silver may be the most undervalued asset in the world right now.
here is my question. for instance you can only cash out 2000.00 a day on kraken or 20.000 a month are there other exchanges that will allow you to do more or is that about the average?
Thanks to my history with them, I have high limits on Coinbase, so I could cash out a lot there if I wanted. But, I'm not selling for cash, I'm selling directly into other investments.
I disagree. the correction won't be that severe. Other coins offer support. Unlike other markets, cryptos exist within a specific realm. They are all more or less the same. This is not the case with the real estate or the tech bubble.
Thanks for your input. I'm happy you're checking out my posts because I admire your writing abilities. Regarding the correction, though, time will tell.
ofcourse I do and try to comment. Indeed no on can tell.
thank you for your kind words man.
Sell Sell Sell!
It's all going to zero!
Bubbles, bubbles everywhere!
or HODL/loadup for the August run by buying from the bubble-people. :)